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  2. That’s nice, when they were in short supply the experts said masks could only help medical workers and would be useless or even dangerous to use by the public, but now that they are being pumped out by the millions they can help regular people too, haha. Here’s a pic from 1918 (California) during the Spanish flu, note the sign “Wear a mask or go to jail” But this may be taking things too far:
  3. Today
  4. Yea, I just checked amazon and the one I bought/recommended earlier here (which was $20) is now sold out, they have other ones that are more expensive but have very good reviews. It seems they are going fast. I think it is an excellent tool to have on hand as it offers a very simple gauge of lung function which could possibly indicate the presence of pneumonia or covid-19 infection. When you get one, just take a baseline reading, most healthy people are going to see 98 or 99%, below 95% is a red flag, below 90 and you should probably get to a hospital. Here is a pic I just took of the oximeter on my wife’s finger.
  5. Well, to lift everyone's spirits, it could be MUCH worse ... The above 2008 talk presented the heightened likelihood of pandemic influenza, due to significant increased use of LARGE-scale industrial farming. If this happened in the near future, then this human planet may very well face multiple, parallel viral pandemics. And then of course, there are the "usual" monthly disasters ... equakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. I'm a big fan of the History Channel series Mega Disasters (2006-2008). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mega_Disasters Since you're home, anyway, why not stream some entertaining episodes 😉
  6. ...and this site (based on data gathered from Univ. Of Washington) shows projected hospital resource use based on COVID-19 deaths... https://covid19.healthdata.org/
  7. Yesterday
  8. Some good news from this realtime US fever-tracking site: https://healthweather.us/ The 2nd chart lower down on the page is showing a steady decline in overall percentage of their users showing fevers. It's now well below the typically expected rate for this time of year. Also if you switch the main chart to "Trends" mode you can see essentially the entire country is "cooling off" fever-wise.
  9. A grim reminder that in times of social stress, civilization breaks down very rapidly. This report is from a reputable source, The Guardian: NHS staff warned to hide ID after spate of targeted muggings "Robbers targeting doctors and nurses to obtain free food offered for tackling coronavirus" Stay safe folks, because even the front line workers who are attempting to save us are now targeted by sociopaths with no regard for anyone.
  10. Hang in there Matt, and best wishes for your mom. Apologies if this website has already been posted in this thread, but I don't remember it. I've been frustrated by lack of data on the number of tests being conducted in the US and especially data broken down by state. Are the states with few reported cases just not testing very much? This website is a treasure trove for such data: http://coronavirusapi.com/ It shows that across the US about 18% of tests are coming back positive. But there is a HUGE range. Below is the most interesting table from that website, showing the data broken down by state. I've highlighted New York (NY) and my state of Pennsylvania (PA). As you can see, both states have tested about the same fraction of their population (2000-3000 tests per million citizens). But in NY they are seeing 90% of their tests return positive, while PA is only seeing 10% of their tests return positive, which is below the national average of around ~18%. But some states are much lower still, such as Minnesota (MN) where they've also tested ~3000 people per million citizens and are only seeing 2.7% of tests coming back positive. This clearly suggests two things: a) some state (like NY) are only testing very sick people who are very likely to have the virus and b) the percent of the population who has the virus does indeed appear to vary quite widely between states. In other words, the low # of cases in some states isn't just that those states aren't testing very much, they really haven't been hit hard by the virus yet. --Dean
  11. I’m not a practitioner of CR. In fact I’m very fond of ice cream and pizza. But I’m guessing that some CR fans might be reversing course and possibly putting on pounds at the moment.
  12. Matt, do you have a mask and gloves? If you take precautions, it's reasonably safe to go to the store to grab some essentials - if I were you, I'd go by myself and not let your mum come with you, because you can probably practice safe behavior with more success... for her, it's best to just stay home. Do you have an option of food delivery? That's another possibility, depending on your location. The only times I've been out, is for my jogging, and for daily walks (and I wear a mask, plus I circle around anyone I encounter). And, for sheer out the door - around the building, the garden etc. when I walk my cat (on a leash) a few times a day. I have not been to a store in 2 weeks now. In a few days, we're (my wife and I) going to run out of milk and yoghurt. Initially I was going to go to the store sometime next week, but we've decided that we'll take this as a challenge and see how long we can go until we start missing something essential. Milk and yoghurt are not essential. We have enough hardy vegetables and fruits to last: cabbage, brussel sprouts, carrots, cauliflower, apples, oranges, mandarins, melons; plus frozen fruits and veggies: berry mixes, broccoli, brussel sprouts, spinach, green beans. When we run out of those, it's time to hit the store (we have canned veggies, but those are only in case of a dire emergency). We figure we'll be fine for another month before we have to hit the stores.
  13. Maybe not, we'll see soon. So far the symptoms seem mild but she only just woke up with it a few hours ago. Since she has had chest infections before and is constantly on azithromycin (takes it daily), it might not be the virus. She also takes hydroxychloroquine every day too for lupus. I'm just slightly annoyed really cos she ignores the warnings and advice from the NHS, the government... and me when I keep telling her she has to stay at home. Yet she takes me nan who has COPD (not emphysema as I thought..) to the shops twice a day to get things like the newspaper and things that are not essential. So then I have the anxiety about this and constantly have to be careful. I've not even been out of the house in 2 weeks now. If she wasn't leaving the house, it'd make life a bit easier.
  14. Long queues out there? Let us know about your mother, might not be SARS-COV2
  15. My mother has to get tested for coronavirus in just over an hour. She feels like she has a chest infection, pains when taking deeper breaths feels hot (but not fever), and tired. I told her a million times that she should not be leaving the house but she wouldn't listen to me. Anyway, after getting told this news... she gets off the phone and goes into the kitchen and starts putting the dishes, forks, and spoons away in the drawers. Touching everything... 😞 I asked her why she is doing this knowing she might have the virus.. she said: "I didn't think..." And I'll have completely run out of food by tomorrow. I have nothing.
  16. Troopers go door to door hunting down New Yorkers Texas vigilante groups have reportedly volunteered to assist in the hunt for New Yorkers. 😁 Trump says he's considering an enforceable quarantine of New York, New Jersey and parts of Connecticut. Gov. Coumo responds:
  17. Another New Zoonotic Virus Disease Emerging In China - Orthohantavirus
  18. Hypertension is by far the most common pre-existing condition associated with Italian Covid-19 mortality. I've noted that in other analyses as well.
  19. According to this doctor/author he has heard the CDC will be updating guidance on masks in 10 days, to advise all Americans to wear masks. This is an unsourced rumor at this point.
  20. The 'complications' section is not reassuring: It's not very clear if renal and cardiac complications are independent from respiratory complications (lesser circulating oxygen).
  21. A 26 march report on Covid-19 deaths in Italy. Translated from Google. Deaths for under 50s are still pretty rare and some of'em had known comorbidities. Translate Report-COVID-2019_26_marzo.it.en.pdf
  22. It has been just hinted at by the specialist who was speaking. The tolerance is pretty low, a few percentages and you go to admittance. But they were clear in that the baseline is not the same for everyone, those who have ashtma have a lower one and the threshold is shifted accordingly. According to Mayo clinic: As far as I understood from the interviewed doctors, they check the baseline, then adopt a threshold of just a few percentages, with less tolerance than the Mayo clinic values. Also, the pulse oximeter, as it's commonly called, seems to be a pretty inexpensive item, of course then raises the issue of accuracy, precision and so on, I am tempted to order it at Amazon, before they run out of it, LOL. Edit: I just checked, delivery times here are in the order of a few weeks, not a frequently sold item, usually.
  23. Nothing surprising there. That's been the mainstream view for some time, afaict. Dr. Anthony Fauci has been dubbed "the face of America's fight against coronavirus, "a trusted presence behind the podium at White House Covid-19 briefings" . Apparently, he and Gov. Coumo are the most trusted leaders in America on that issue right now. “If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down" -- Anthony Fauci . Donuts Delite in Rochester is selling "Fauci doughnuts." If the virus doesn't kill you, these might.
  24. Last week
  25. "Our findings suggest the presence of heterogeneity in the associations between individual fruit consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes. Greater consumption of specific whole fruits, particularly blueberries, grapes, and apples, is significantly associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas greater consumption of fruit juice is associated with a higher risk." https://www.bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f5001
  26. I disagree. "New" infections numbers are largely meaningless, as we are not testing everyone, continuously. This is especially true for Iran, which had a strained healthcare system before Covid-19. Assuming, as the UK model published a couple of days ago, that infection rates are much, much higher than what we see through limited (and often inaccurate) testing, the number of deaths is what's more informative. Here is something which also appears to support Levitt's projections: "What makes this outbreak so challenging is that there appear to be a lot of people walking around who don't even know they have it, but are carrying the disease and spreading it to others. It also spreads very easily. As a result, demand for hospital beds in some places is outstripping the supply. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. The New England Journal of Medicine has published an editorial by Dr. Anthony Fauci, an immunologist and authority on the outbreak who is considered to be apolitical. Based on the downward trend in the mortality rate in China, he and his colleagues wrote that, “If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively” (Fauci et al., 2020)." https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/its-catching/202003/covid-19-the-severity-hinges-question Methinks the mass hysteria and the acceptance of the Chinese Model pushed by WHO and populist Western leaders, will cause unseen in living memory damage to the Western economies and weaken the unity and the appeal of liberal democracies in the long run, which is a much greater danger to the world than Covid-19. I really hope I am wrong in my geopolitical assessment.
  27. From that article: In Iran, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases per day remained relatively flat last week, going from 1,053 last Monday to 1,028 on Sunday. Although that's still a lot of new cases, Levitt said, the pattern suggests the outbreak there "is past the halfway mark." Today is three days since that article was published, and Iran is now running at 3,000 new cases per day. So much for "relatively flat" and "past the halfway mark." Given that, I'm not sure his optimistic predictions should be given much credence. --Dean
  28. Actually, after a brief search, I haven't found anything which says that Covid-19 is more dangerous to the young than the flu, which also kills some in their prime, and the flu is actually seemingly considerably more dangerous to the very young. Notably, in his speech justifying the effectively shutting down of the state's economy, California's Governor Newsom warned about the young dying, and trotted out the case of a "healthy teener' who died from Covid-19. The news ran with it. A day later, after doing a search, I found out that the "healthy teenager" actually had serious preexisting conditions, which was barely mentioned in the news. Now, imagine the headlines if Trump had made such a misleading statement to justify a major policy change (it's weird to find myself defending Trump :) Here is the death toll from Covid-19 by age and pre-existing condition: https://virusncov.com/covid-19-age-sex-cases-and-deaths And here is the weekly mortality rate from what is a normal flu season (rough filtering by age from the menu in the upper right): https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html And to those who like predictions, here is one which in many ways makes more sense to me: Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine' And in reference to Dean's post above and the projected number of Covid-19 deaths for the US (81,000), this is just about the same mortality as for the 2017-2018 flu season. Except that we did shut down the whole economy and borrow more than 2 trillion dollars so that we can dole them out as "free money," because we are tripping over to follow China and lock the country down, destroying our economy in the process. My guess is that once we have robust testing, we'll find out that asymptomatic Covid-19 infections are far more widespread than assumed (similarly to the flu).
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