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Everything posted by Mechanism

  1. Mechanism

    April's CR Diary

    I just read the most recent 2020+ entries. You are a natural writer. I was very sorry to hear about Mom ( and doggy). I wonder whether now might be a good time to re-read “"Rant: Moderate CR" from which the title of this post was taken... Sept. 2002”? I have never read it so I don’t know whether it would help or hurt but you speak fondly of it. ( on that note if you still have it can you PM it to me? I am a CR member so I should be able to find in the archives in principal, but the interface is buggy and I can’t access it. best wishes and keep writing. ps- I take the side of moderation > true CR for the masses since it is lower risk and yields most of the benefit and would have higher compliance. Those that would benefit from further CR without undo risk and permit screening to see whether they are good candidates for stronger forms. It depends on the individual - physical and mental health as well as genetics and age, comorbidities, etc. but anything you can do to spread the word on safe moderation of calories would make a world of difference to the patient ( and as per your conversation with Brian and your own subsequent MPH) and public health. Another thought for you. If you are looking for inspiration, consider attending national conferences. For example the breakout social intermissions at NYC’s ending age-related disease conferences ( online this year). Not CR-focused per se, but health optimization certainly.
  2. Mechanism

    April's CR Diary

    Great to see the blog revived April, thank you for updating us. The underlying mechanisms for CR are better understood than ever. Keep it up 👍
  3. Mechanism

    How sustainable is a CRON lifestyle?

    Hi April, Welcome back! I arrived to the scene after your time, but your reputation precedes you.... I for one would enjoy a fresh CR blog, especially one delving deeper in the literature ( more like Reason’s posts but more in depth) if that is your cup of tea. . On the note of spreading the word, I would add that if we ever hold a live CR meeting again, from what I hear about your CR-friendly culinary skill, I think if word got out that you may consider serving that famous pizza ( or any iteration of the infamous “binging brownies” circulating on the web) it would no doubt would sell out on the first day. 🙂
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  5. Mechanism

    Lost your marbles yet??

    When I feel sad, I remind myself what I am grateful for. I also try to remember I am a good person, that I care, and though I do not always succeed, I try my best, and that is all one can do. Making plans for something positive I can do - for the situation, for renewal, and especially for others also helps. Listening to and supporting and offering kindness in another’s troubles can provide perspective, gratitude, meaning, a sense of purpose and a positive direction. Sometimes space or distraction and getting through is what is needed - and is enough. I am sorry about your losses. You are capable and worthy, and deserve happiness which will come. You are not alone. The human condition is rough. We are in this together.
  6. Tom, I agree with this author that “using a population-wide average VSL standard for assessing COVID-19 policies is inappropriate insofar as such an average does not accurately capture the age distribution of expected COVID-19 decedents.” This was one of your points. When I was in grad school it took me a little time to wrap my brain around the QUALY - which is not a measure of economic impact of a lost life ( as you pointed out, a lost life can be net savings to society notwithstanding the tragedy - that is another matter ), but rather a societal willingness to lose $ per lives saved and moreover in systems with constrained resources it attempts to provide an objective paradigm for trade offs such as for determining the relative merit of investing in public health measure 1 vs. public health measure 2. Society needs some way to maximize good and comparable metrics are the best we have right now, as unfair as it feels to choose one protective program over another. I agree with you about the problems with VSL, i feel QUALY analyses are more suitable. If there is a better system than QUALY analyses ( not done in your cited study), I am not aware of it, but would be interested in learning and being enlightened. https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-economists-calculate-the-costs-and-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns/#37b4207c6f63
  7. Last video I posted featuring Dr. John Ioannidis ( looks almost identical but it was "Episode 1") he had called for more data - Now (Episode 4) he has more data - some based on his own research and provides a - in my assessment - fairly balanced evaluation with his take on its implications, where we are, and considerations going forward. Worth a listen: #2 Dr. David Katz has been a controversial figure in the nutrition and health policy space. Regardless how you feel about him or his nutritional assessments, I found this thought-provoking, and he also raises some of the same questions with regard to the balance required in a cogent opening up / health mitigation strategy:
  8. Sadly you are probably right Todd: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/46/10/1582/294025 The Interaction between Nutrition and Infection Peter Katona, Judit Katona-Apte Clinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 46, Issue 10, 15 May 2008, Pages 1582–1588, https://doi.org/10.1086/587658 The biggest advantage is the lower prevalence of older persons, but comorbidities, crowding and malnutrition are huge problems along with issues around hygiene and simple supportive measures in and outside the minimal or broken health care systems. The true extent will likely never be known due to anticipated limited testing. The best estimate would be comparing ( also imperfect) crude all-cause mortality data pre vs post Covid.
  9. Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study Very interesting study BrianA ( regarding the different virus variants, mutation rate, and potential virulence / CFR) the most novel of our recent posts and if confirmed the biggest game changer in implications so far. Mike - this is tricky stuff, and one of the greatest challenges- estimates for our models make all the difference - garbage in, garbage out. Thanks for the link. Drewab- though agree ( Saul) that greger info sadly suspect, I would not throw out the baby with the bathwater as he also brings in literature sometimes that is easy to miss - I just make sure to review the sources myself though this should always be the rule anyway. I do like his raising awareness of impact of factory farming at multiple levels - he means well and is doing mostly good. Was not aware of his ID background, thanks for the link. Gordo, Tom, Sibiriak, Dean, McCoy, Ron : I think we have consensus that opening in stages may be needed - the devil is in the details when/how WRT testing readiness. This was recently touched upon in this video interview @ Harvard CME ( their stuff is easily accessible to general public): https://postgraduateeducation.hms.harvard.edu/continuing-education/covid-19-resources-providers#April 16 ( see for others: https://postgraduateeducation.hms.harvard.edu/continuing-education/covid-19-resources-providers ) misc of interest: ##Risk factors in Wuhan inpatients: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152876/ With the possible exception of age ( and even here I suspect biological age to trump chronological age, high correlation notwithstanding), I expect most CRSoc members to fare well.
  10. Hot off the press: Risk factors in Wuhan inpatients: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152876/ with the possible exception of age ( and even here I suspect biological age to trump chronological age), I expect most CRSoc members to fare well.
  11. It was great meeting you today Drewab. These authors speculate that vitamin D deficiency related reduced immunity ( and activity level) may mediate part of the obesity-Covid adverse events association that we has discussed earlier today: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/oby.22838 Merits further study.
  12. Great to see you @ the CR Meeting online Gordo. Here from your article:
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  16. I agree Gordo, I thought the same thing. The 15% you cite was from an essentially 100% sample of pregnant woman and the highest reliable source reported Covid percentage that we have seen domestically to date - and from NYC which has been among the hardest hit. From the New England Journal of Medicine (the highest impact U.S. clinical journal): https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316 We have a long way to go before herd immunity is achieved. I have the same issues with the Knut Wittkowski video. This is in distinction with Dr John Ioannidis who in my estimation has been consistently balanced, nuanced, and data-responsive.
  17. Sibiriak, your video post was beyond words. A scary segment at multiple levels. At the same time, understandable that we are witnessing this at all levels: we are talking lives, jobs, freedom, social responsibility and core issues at the heart of our greatest needs and most deeply held values..... With so much at stake, and rather than sound bites and simple yes/no policy , we need a careful and nuanced science-grounded approach appropriately balancing the high stakes at all sides of this.
  18. This just posted by Josh Mitteldorf a few hours ago - his Aging Matters blog well known to long-time members of CRSociety https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com/2020/04/15/overreaction/ I have no opinion yet on the piece yet as I have not read as of the time of this posting ( earmarked for this afternoon) and I do not want to read too much into the title of the commentary without diving into the details and arguments presented. I generally vet commentaries before posting which is a great general rule of thumb, but given the author’s place in the “life extension” space ( he takes a controversial genetic and species genetically programmed perspective on aging but regardless how you feel about this, Josh regularly takes deep dives into geroscience ), it is interesting to get his perspective. All the more so and timeliness of this heads up post with our upcoming CR Society meeting this Saturday......a little fun controversy amidst serious deliberation and debate can be a good thing!
  19. The greatest common denominator in diverging data appear to be assumptions and interpretation of poor data. We are moving in the right direction, but painfully slowly -- Sadly, this video - produced in late March and calling for higher quality data to guide policy "within 2-3 weeks" of that release is as relevant now as ever. Sadly it is going to take a lot longer. This thread has already cited the Ioannidis publication described here, however I have to say that I found this video surprisingly even more polished and overall quite balanced handling this delicate, ambiguous, and high-stakes crisis. You may remember his vocal attention to the problem of publication bias and false positives across the clinical sciences long before the CoVid-19 pandemic - another challenging controversy requiring nuanced consideration. I can not recommend it enough as a starting point before digging deeper into updated data and substantive discussions around Covid-19 policy.
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  21. Nice find Dean. I am not sure what the best solution is for the U.S. but such a contact tracing and rapid case isolation - approach seems sensible. Of course the issue you raised regarding asymptomatic carriers is a challenging one, hence arguments for as widespread as possible to universal ( at least in some settings or populations ) screening to the extent realistically possible. Congratulations on your financial move. I refrained from comment as this is not a financial forum but this is something to celebrate and appreciate. We all should hopefully have some longer term “fresh powder” liquid assets above and beyond a narrow emergency fund to cover cost of living for extended periods when the market is turbulent to avoid selling low. Moreover, an evergreen portfolio with the option to ride out the storm for extended periods reduces the probability of poor decision-making in contradistinction with your investment policy statement or personal goals and time horizon. This is a great time to review the behavioral finance literature and avoid major rash adjustments which unfortunately is far too common during financial crises. While few today are able to live off the traditional dividends and interest, in contrast cutting expenses Is something we all can do - taking extra care that we are not on the hedonistic treadmill but rather spending mindfully and primarily in accordance with our needs and values.