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TomBAvoider

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  1. All that be as it may. But. At least here in LA County, the ICU care is at a breaking point. It's not so much that no beds are available, because after all you can always set up more cots. The issue is that there are not enough healthcare professionals (doctors and nurses) to take care of more patients. It seems the system is operating at its absolute limits. The concern is not simply about more COVID cases coming to ICU in the coming days/weeks. The concern is that with capacity this stretched, the ICUs cannot accommodate *other* patients, such as victims of heart attacks, strokes, accidents and other emergency situations. When you have ambulances that are waiting 4-8 hours to move patients into hospitals, you are going to impact ALL emergency healthcare. So you may not get super high COVID mortality from all those ICUs, but the resources being overwhelmend by COVID cases will raise the overall mortality from other causes when patients can't access emergency care. At that point you are pushing up overall mortality, even if it's not directly connected to COVID simply because healthcare facilities are overwhelmed. Now X-mas and the holidays are coming around with high odds of family gatherings - similar to what happened with Thanksgiving - and that might result in another massive spike within the next couple of weeks after that, and with ICU's at capacity, it will not be a pretty picture. From what I've been reading, there is a lot of COVID fatigue which is what's supposedly responsible for the terrible spike in CA. Allegedly Californians have been ignoring social distancing mandates and mask wearing and generally behaving unsafely. I don't know how true that is, but at this point the claim is that 1 in every 80 LA County residents is infected. From my anecdotal observations, there was a ton of concern and altered behavior at the beginning of the pandemic - March, April, May - but then people got tired, and today I see *a lot* of folks walking around with NO masks, exercising with NO masks, not social distancing and generally being fairly blase about the threat. People are tired of the restrictions. At this point I just don't know what the economic impact is going to look like. There are just tons of people and small businesses barely hanging on. It looks like whatever stimulus is coming out of Washington is going to be very meager and states are broke. And you can't just mandate eviction moratoriums into infinity. A lot of renters are living in properties owned by small landlords (at least here in CA). The small landlords have mortages to pay - there's no moratorium on mortgages and no moratorium on taxes(!), so at some point they won't be able to hang on. You can't ask them to shoulder the burden indefinitely - there are some proposals for subsidies, but you can be sure it'll be too little too late. Then there's the bigger question of what you're going to do when the inevitable wave of massive evictions start. Sure, you evicted the non-paying tenant. But now the pool of good credit renters is much smaller and you'll have a lot of empty apartments after all those evictions - whom are you filling those empty apartments with? At least you'll be able to sell the property I guess, but if there's a wave of that, prices will crater. Meanwhile how are all those marginal renters surviving when they're often workers who have been displaced from collapsing businesses such as restaurants and stores and retail facilities - how are they making money and getting jobs so they can afford to rent again? A lot of small businesses won't be able to survive the next few months. That'll be a knock on effect on the greater economy. How are we getting out of this? It looks grim.
  2. Here's a bit more info about Conrad Roland: https://peoplepill.com/people/conrad-roland/
  3. I remember him - I recall him being a bit ornery :) "self-treating" - oh boy. I think it's fine to engage in healthy behaviors and cancer suppression tactics like low cal no sugar diet and exercise. But melanoma can be a deadly cancer. IMHO, in that case I would look to conventional medial treatment (in addition to the healthful behaviors I mentioned above). Lighter skinned folks in very sunny climates have to watch for skin cancer - I've had a bout myself, a single BCC in 2011, fortunately, it was very small. I didn't fool around with self-treamtment, I had it surgically removed. Since then I have had regular full skin checkups, because if you've had one, odds rise dramatically you'll have more down the line and even more aggressive things like melanoma are a higher risk. Fortunately for me, thus far I have not had any recurrence of any skin cancer since 2011, but the second something is found I'm having it treated pronto. YMMV. I hope he's OK. Odds of skin cancer diagnosis rise the older you get - as I seem to remember he was in his 70's back when he was active. I wish him the best.
  4. TomBAvoider

    Exercise not too much!

    Such studies are very frustrating. As Dean rightly points out, they didn't do much to account for many confounders. That said, the health impact of sedentary behavior is an extremely important topic - if nothing else, because so many people (including me!) are compelled to work in a sedentary position. Now, there are all sorts of measures one can take - and Dean is a stellar example - of treadmill desks and other solutions, but that is not always possible when you're working at an office or have to go in for the day or whatnot. Even standing vs sitting is controversial, with some researchers claiming that standing (still) has its own set of problems, such as increased blood pressure and on the whole many not be much better if at all than sitting. So I am very interested in this topic, unfortunately, this study doesn't tell us much.
  5. TomBAvoider

    Chillblains (Pernio), anyone?

    I don't get those, but I do walk around barefoot. This means that sometimes the floor is very cold and uncomfortable, especially in winter (even though I live in Los Angeles, so it never gets freezing, but I also never heat my living space, ever, so...). To ameliorate that issue, in winter I wear socks - the best are the non-slip kind, which have little rubber dots on the bottom so you don't slip and slide on the floor. These are not very expensive and you can buy them on Amazon - search for "yoga socks". Sometimes when it's cold, the tips of my little fingers on my hands get slightly numb and discolored - usually it's one hand or the other, rarely both at the same time.
  6. I agree Mike. We know extremely little about lipids and the whole story of atherosclerosis, CVD and so on. And TMAO is a poster child for how we actually know next to nothing - isolated effects, and no big picture. Re: Peter Attia, in general he's very good wrt. lipids and CVD, with super illuminating podcasts, especially with Tom Dayspring.
  7. The TMAO story continues to be confusing, and this video does not shed as much light on it as may seem on the surface. The problem is that the kidney angle does not explain the fish paradox at all. In fact, I was disappointed to see such poor followup. If kidney function declines with age (which it does), and past about 40 it declines below the magical cutoff of EGFR 90, then you would expect the advantages of fish consumption to decline past 40 with the massive TMAO spike. It raises the questions: is there evidence that consuming animal protein dramatically raises TMAO related morbidities past the age of 40? And importantly to the fish paradox, is there evidence that consuming fish past 40 raises those morbidities dramatically in tandem with the dramatic impact of TMAO from fish? I am unaware of any research that shows fish consumption to be dramatically worse for you than meat/eggs past age 40. In other words, this whole thing doesn’t hold water. This video does NOT explain or account for the fish paradox in the TMAO story. I recommend going back to the drawing board.
  8. TomBAvoider

    Hello from a new member

    Welcome! The best advice I can give you is to do a ton of research before you adopt any course of action, and hold all your beliefs lightly. I’ve been on this health nut kick for over twenty years now, and I still am regularly compelled to change my opinion about pretty major things. Best of luck! Oh, also: read the various threads here as far back as you can, and see how the tides of opinion change... very educational and humbling. Again, hold all your convictions lightly. YMMV.
  9. TomBAvoider

    EVOO production site

    Same here. I'm curious about eating olives, but again, I have only been able to eat the brine-derived green ones. The other thing, is to note the difference in processing between black and green olives and the impact on polyphenol count and generally nutritional profile. Many people also prefer the taste of kalamata olive oil, but I suppose at that point they're less interested in the health benefits aspect of it, just going purely for taste. I personally love the peppery taste of high-polyphenol count EVOO, but I once offered a bottle of super-high poly count EVOO I bought from Veronica Foods, to a friend who is a big fan of Italy and Italian food and travels there all the time. He tasted it with a bit of bread and said it was too much for him - too spicy!! I was blown away. I couldn't believe it. But there you have it. Anyhow, I wonder what the different ways of preparing olives are and which ones preserve the most micronutrients.
  10. TomBAvoider

    CORONA vs CRONie ... are bugs more scared of us?

    Welcome back - to posting - Bob! Also, you used to have employees, I'm sad to see you working by yourself. I remember the anecdote you told about employees. You said that you had a very good employee once, and you encouraged him and helped him branch out on his own so that he would have his own company or work on his own and no longer have to be your employee. However, that employee, while excellent in your employ, completely failed as a self-operator. From that you concluded that the reality is that it takes a special set of characteristics to be your own boss and that not everyone is suited and some people are better suited to be employees (even excellent employees) working for someone else. I bring it up, because you mentioned that you now work on your own, so that came back to me. Clearly you are very active as a result of your work. What's interesting, is that research seems to say that LEISURE time physical activity is health-promoting while WORK time physical activity is the opposite. Nice to see you defy those results. I think you are competing with Saul for optimal health in later years. It's amazing to think that you started at 53. I remember those years like it was yesterday, mere 19-20 years ago, when CR was the hot new thing. Time flies. In another 20, you'll be in your 90's - maybe you'll go back to having employees in your landscaping company :)
  11. Something is not adding up here. Dairy seems protective against colon cancer in most studies, so I don't know why they say a "dairy diet" would be especially bad for colocrectal cancers.
  12. TomBAvoider

    Reaching optimal health

    Well, maybe it is too late, I don't know. But I do know it won't be my problem, because by the time when the ish really hits the fan, I'll be long dead. As will be my wife and anyone else I care about. I'm not happy about it, I wish civilization would last, since there is so much beauty and glory in the human being, but in the end nature will take its course. Admittedly, I'm an optimist, so I reckon somehow things will work themselves out. I'm not saying the situation isn't dire, but perhaps I have too much faith in human inventiveness.
  13. TomBAvoider

    Reaching optimal health

    Actually, I think that a longer lifespan would promote more ecological awareness and general rationality. If you are to live longer, you have more incentives to take care of the environment. And if you have a longer lifespan you would take better care of yourself too, as you don't want to linger on in poor health. All in all, I can see almost no downsides to a longer lifespan. YMMV.
  14. TomBAvoider

    Reaching optimal health

    This is the chitchat section, so a bit of diversion. How do you know you've reached optimal health? Is it even a particular state? After all, your body is in constant flux. Perhaps your liver has become as healthy as it can get (100%), but your lungs are at 70% or your kidneys get better and your joints get worse. So how can you give a global rating of a single descriptive like "optimal health" overall? While one thing might improve another might deteriorate, so how can you say "overall"? Be that as it may, I'm sure you've heard the following - a 50 year old man starts exercising or changes their diet to a healthy one, or stops smoking/drinking/drugging etc., and proclaims "I'm in the best shape of my life, my health is the best and I feel better than I felt when I was 25". Perhaps it's even true - perhaps his health is at 50 IS better than at 25 and you can say that *for him* he has reached his optimal health at 50. Now, someone who has been living healthily since their teens, has had optimal health at what, 20? before the natural aging process starts a steady deterioration? Everything else being equal, you're closer to death at 30 than at 20, so you have to say that your health - the quality of your organs etc. - is not as good at 30 as it is at 20. Of course there is the "weakest link" model. Say, you have a bad liver and you fix it. Or a bad heart and you fix it. Or you have ANY bad condition and you manage to fix it. Whatever the age, after you've fixed it, and assuming nothing else has gotten bad in the meanwhile, you've reached optimal health, say at 40, or 50, or whatnot, because the weakest link - a bad heart or bad liver or whatnot - would've killed you otherwise, so fixing it gets you to your best health. For many on this list, it's a complicated question. We try to fix all our problems - muscles, teeth, joints, CV health etc. and then engage in optimal exercise and diet. But then the aging process represents a steady overall deterioration. If you fixed your "weakest link" that might have killed you early, what's left is aging. So you've reached Optimal Health once you have no morbidities - from then on, you age and that represents continuing deterioration, so maybe you've reached optimal health at 30 and then it's all downhill from there. Subjectively, even at this late age (technically late middle age) I personally feel as if every year I'm getting healthier - obviously, that's an illusion, since getting older means getting closer to death. Although I suppose you could model a "square the curve" - you're healthy as can be until you suddenly drop dead from old age. Now, I - as I'm sure most here - am constantly optimizing and fiddling with my diet, exercise, supplement regimes and so on in an effort to keep improving... although the truth is that at best it's fiddling at the margins and makes 0.0001% change or it's useless or even making things worse. But all this fiddling gives me a subjective feeling as if NOW I'm at optimal health. I'm fully aware it's an illusion. Anyhow, all this was brought on by my having some dental work done - since dental health is super important to the overall health, I felt as if NOW I've reached optimal health, having fixed all my niggling little issues. It's an illusion. But that still leaves the question - is there such a thing as having "optimal health"? Is it a specific point in time? Or is it a confused and pointless concept? If it's useless, why do we pursue it?
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