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BrianA

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  1. Political Calculations has updated their stock market forecast based off the continued deterioration in future projected dividends... the projection in their 2nd chart looks pretty ugly. Dividend futures do of course fluctuate, so if the economy suddenly improves perhaps based off even more stimulus measures, this projection could change. Next 3 weeks will be interesting. https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/03/s-500-rises-and-falls-on-fed-stimulus.html
  2. Purposely infecting volunteers with very low doses of the virus could be a useful approach, assuming the data proves out that low initial dose = less severe disease. Variolation May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30X http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/variolation-may-cut-covid19-deaths-3-30x.html
  3. Some good news from this realtime US fever-tracking site: https://healthweather.us/ The 2nd chart lower down on the page is showing a steady decline in overall percentage of their users showing fevers. It's now well below the typically expected rate for this time of year. Also if you switch the main chart to "Trends" mode you can see essentially the entire country is "cooling off" fever-wise.
  4. According to this doctor/author he has heard the CDC will be updating guidance on masks in 10 days, to advise all Americans to wear masks. This is an unsourced rumor at this point.
  5. Singapore open sources their contact tracing phone app, which uses bluetooth to track other app users you have been near in the past. Would you install something like this on your phone, and allow it to upload data to authorities should you become infected? https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-spore-government-to-make-its-contact-tracing-app-freely-available-to
  6. Here's a link containing Stanford document on how to sterilize N95 masks for reuse. Baking them in preheated oven to 158 degrees for 10 minutes is one suggested way. Or steaming them. https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fstanfordmedicine.box.com%2Fv%2Fcovid19-PPE-1-1
  7. Regarding the stock market, Political Calculations is a blog I track that uses dividend futures to try and guesstimate where the market may be heading. Lately as you can see in this post, particularly the 2nd chart, the futures for upcoming quarters have really dropped a ton, pointing that the market may continue to head a bit lower than it currently is in the coming weeks. https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/03/s-declines-as-instant-recession-arrives.html They update this data regularly and do a fresh post each week.
  8. Here's a website that uses basic models along with state data to let you click on a US state, and then see visually the expected results of different approaches to controlling the virus along with at what date the hospital system of that state becomes overwhelmed. https://covidactnow.org/
  9. Here's another online company trying to provide some realtime US data, this one is a smart thermometer company trying to mine their anonymized customer base for hotspots over and above typical annual flu levels. Looks like Florida might be picking up? But oddly the west coast isn't too bad. https://healthweather.us/
  10. Here's an interesting video from Nanjing China, showing how things have changed since the virus
  11. Here's some realtime data on the effect the lockdowns are having on US hourly paid workers: https://joinhomebase.com/blog/real-time-covid-19-data/
  12. The "Contain and Eradicate" strategy discussed here is essentially my best current guess as to how to proceed: Covid-19 Points of Leverage, Travel Bans and Eradication https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ddgry4k64oBZYfrHy/covid-19-points-of-leverage-travel-bans-and-eradication The biggest lesson for the Western countries in this is next time this happens, they need to react waaaay earlier to implement this strategy. If they could have effectively contained it much earlier in just a few smaller geographic areas like in Taiwan or even South Korea, the economic damage would have been so much less.
  13. It's well accepted now that comparing this virus to the regular flu is incorrect. See this arstechnica review of that UK report: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/new-model-examines-impact-of-different-methods-of-coronavirus-control/ Essentially if you "do nothing" aka treat this virus as the regular flu and just let it run completely out of control, you might end up with around 2 million deaths in the US, something like 20x the amount of the regular flu. This is why the UK and US decided to start taking additional actions to slow it down. I wouldn't call it hysteria, unfortunately it's just the reality of this particular set of circumstances.
  14. How Taiwan Used Big Data, Transparency and a Central Command to Protect Its People from Coronavirus https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-people-coronavirus
  15. Thanks for that alternate link. Well, the US is already in many places going through a fairly significant lockdown, we're already experiencing increasing intensity of it. I think it will likely be enough to slow the new cases significantly by early April perhaps. The question then becomes, what's the best way to proceed by mid-April or May? These lockdowns currently buy you time to figure that out while avoiding the health care system getting hit too hard, but if you don't come up with a more effective response for the post-lockdown time, then from the models I've seen we would expect the virus to come back just as big as before by the Fall or early Winter. So my thinking regarding the extensive testing is that while the US currently can't do it, it is ramping up towards being able to do it perhaps by mid-April or May. I'd like to see it by then implement an intensive testing regime (not just those with symptoms, but everyone who had contact with a positive case even if they are asymptomatic) with more technologically advanced case tracing and isolation adherence verification via phone app, in order to better keep things under control after that point and hopefully avoid a Fall/Winter massive resurgence.
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