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BrianA

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  1. BrianA

    The Singularity May be Closer than It Appears

    In other news, Yann LeCun of Facebook AI has published a paper with a proposed overall design for an AGI: A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence https://openreview.net/forum?id=BZ5a1r-kVsf The paper states that some parts of the design are still left to be figured out, but it's interesting.
  2. BrianA

    The Singularity May be Closer than It Appears

    Giant's bot is kinda slow, but apparently not as slow as Google's bot where their video was sped up 10x. I also know with DeepMind's recent Gato project they had to artificially constrain the model size in order to have it be able to control a robot arm in realtime, apparently larger models have too slow inference times. I like Giant's focus on getting the cost down and safety up, by making the limbs out of cheap and light plastic, and driven by tendon-like cables rather than internal heavier motors. Seems more practical and easier to maintain long term for the inevitable army of robot repair technicians. However there have been attempts in the past to make something similar, like Rethink Robotics' Baxter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baxter_(robot) Discontinued in 2018 due to lack of demand. Too expensive? Too hard to train or too limited?
  3. Monkeypox outbreak continuing to grow, if cases were to continue along this model curve, cases would reach 100k in August and 1 million in September.
  4. BrianA

    The Singularity May be Closer than It Appears

    Some interesting robot tech that may finally start to become practical/economic enough to start to replace humans in repetitive manufacturing tasks:
  5. So the West is "winning" ? "The last time the United States saw an infectious disease as a top-three cause of death was 1937, before the availability of penicillin." Biden’s “new normal” on COVID is neither normal nor new The administration is trying to normalize COVID deaths as they shift the goalposts on what it means to “beat” COVID https://www.salon.com/2022/06/26/biden-new-normal/
  6. China declares they will continue their dynamic lockdown policy after success in containing Omicron so far. It's almost like they know something they don't like about this virus... "Beijing said the city would persist with its zero-COVID policies "over the next five years", although it quickly removed reference to a time period in the announcement." https://news.sky.com/story/beijing-chief-says-city-to-maintain-zero-covid-policy-for-next-five-years-before-time-reference-removed-12640995 Nearly One in Five American Adults Who Have Had COVID-19 Still Have “Long COVID” https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220622.htm In wave after deadly wave, COVID has claimed 1 million lives in the U.S. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/05/17/1093651037/us-one-million-deaths
  7. Reinfections, even with vaccination, result in increasing health risks: "Compared to non-infected controls, assessment of the cumulative risks of repeated infection showed that the risk and burden increased in a graded fashion according to the number of infections" Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1749502/v1
  8. BrianA

    The Singularity May be Closer than It Appears

    Metaculus is a prediction market, where people bet on various questions. It tends to give a decent fairly accurate crowd-sourced guess as to what might happen in the future. Regarding AGI, for the question of when will "weak AGI" be publicly announced (privately this would occur more like 1 year earlier I guess at whatever company gets there first), the current prediction is around 2029, only 7 or so years away. It used to be in the 2030's but the predictions accelerated into the late 2020s recently after the spate of various impressive AI papers all hit, including the Gato work. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/ Regarding "strong AGI" the prediction is current late 2030's, and this prediction also accelerated forward recently after the recent results. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-general-ai/ We appear to be close enough now to at least "weak" AGI, that anyone still making statements to the effect of "it's a long ways away, we don't need to worry yet" seem to be increasingly wrong. Also in other news, video deepfake tech has advanced to the point it is being used in war: European politicians duped into deepfake video calls with mayor of Kyiv https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/european-leaders-deepfake-video-calls-mayor-of-kyiv-vitali-klitschko
  9. BrianA

    The Singularity May be Closer than It Appears

    It's definitely getting more interesting, also don't miss DeepMind's Gato, which is perhaps the most general single-model AI yet? https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent Also don't miss Eliezer's recent list of of potential AGI lethalities: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities BTW, I think Kurzweil is coming out with an updated book soon, apparently titled The Singularity Is Nearer.
  10. Australian researchers find parallels between Alzheimer’s and long-COVID ‘brain fog’ https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-researchers-find-parallels-between-alzheimer-s-and-long-covid-brain-fog-20220614-p5atnp.html
  11. pox cases still climbing worldwide. More spread, or just more awareness and testing? Charts at twitter link below
  12. Contact tracing seems to show some monkeypox cases spreading via normal social gatherings, not sex-related events. Monkeypox now ‘in the community’ as 3rd probable case reported in Hawaii https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2022/06/09/hawaii-reports-3rd-probable-case-monkeypox-with-no-known-connection-first-two/
  13. Bit of an update on the monkeypox, it appears to be a newer strain circulating in humans since 2017. Oddly it has many recent mutations that seemingly make it less fit. Monkeypox DNA hints virus has been spreading outside Africa for years Genome sequencing confirms that monkeypox cases outside Africa are all related and suggests the virus responsible may have been circulating in people since 2017 https://www.newscientist.com/article/2323019-monkeypox-dna-hints-virus-has-been-spreading-outside-africa-for-years/
  14. BrianA

    Is David Sinclair a hypster?

    Sinclair mentions in the hype-y piece he only eats 1 meal a day, avoids sugar/dessert, does sauna and cold exposure, and some other tips. The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect: Scientists can reverse aging in mice. The goal is to do the same for humans https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/health/reverse-aging-life-itself-scn-wellness/index.html
  15. From the bit I've read, yes traditionally this has been a pretty difficult to transmit human-to-human virus. For example there was an outbreak in 2003 in the USA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Midwest_monkeypox_outbreak It was transmitted from some infected pet rats that had imported recently. Contact tracing showed no human-to-human transmission. The issue which I've seen some epidemiologists discussing on twitter is that this current outbreak is not behaving in the same way. There appears to be quite a lot of human-to-human transmission, now apparently in several European countries, Canada, USA, etc. This differs from prior outbreaks?
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