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Todd Allen

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About Todd Allen

  • Birthday 08/21/1964

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  1. I see compelling evidence of effectiveness from places using containment strategies such as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and China.
  2. China contained covid-19 because they started their efforts when a very tiny fraction of their population had been infected. Pretty much all of humanity has been infected by the flu.
  3. I'm pleasantly surprised by your moment of lucidity.
  4. Yes. I don't see glaring factual or logical problems in your excerpt. Tedros and I see covid-19 as fundamentally different from seasonal flu. Covid-19 is a single virus with a high degree of novelty while seasonal flu is a collection of many viruses that have been in circulation. Mutations among the seasonal flu viruses can generate modest novelty but it is very rare for one to come along with all three of these important factors: very little preexisting immunity such that a large percentage of the population could develop a major infection, highly infectious in the absence of measures to limit the spread and high morbidity and mortality. Covid-19 appears to possess all of those traits. We can't yet put concrete numbers on those traits making it hard to know for certain its ultimate lethality but it has shown it has the potential to explode into a disaster if we sit back and wait until we have all of the answers. My guess is there will be countries that are too large and too poor to take effective counter measures, Pakistan strikes me as a high risk example, that will in hindsight let us know if we dodged a bullet or dodged something much worse. And it remains to be seen to what degree we will dodge it. The measures we are taking are difficult to sustain and are unlikely to achieve China's degree of containment.
  5. I was commenting on your words which I quoted exactly as written, thus my incomprehension. https://www.crsociety.org/topic/17223-just-curious-anyone-have-a-plan-or-preps-for-global-pandemic/?do=findComment&comment=35076
  6. You have confused death rates with the number of dead. Despite a slowing of the death rate the number of dead is increasing. The death rate is currently a noisy signal. It is down from its peak but it is up by nearly 20% from yesterday. Don't take the lack of answers personally, most of Fernando Gabriel's questions don't get answered either.
  7. You probably believe in resurrection but the number of dead is not dropping. According to worldometer Italy has 16523 dead with 636 having died today. This is a tally of official figures which mainly counts those that have died in hospitals and misses most that have died elsewhere. None of the flu figures you quote are rigorous tallies but rather calculated guesses computed afterwards. You need to give covid-19 time to play out and for similarly calculated figures to be produced before your apples and oranges comparisons can have any meaning.
  8. You keep comparing things which have run their course to something just getting started. More than half of the covid-19 deaths have occurred in the last week. Look at these graphs and try to imagine what the future could be. Imagine how much worse this would look if it wasn't shut down in China with an aggressive containment policy. Imagine how much worse it might be in Europe and the US without the extensive mitigation efforts.
  9. Just learned our favorite veterinarian Dr. Peter Sakas, 67, died two days ago from Covid-19. My wife and I saw him last on Feb. 29th in reasonable health although somewhat over weight and over worked where in a long conversation he freely shared his extensive experience in diagnosing and treating lead poisoning both acute and chronic in many different species of animals which was a rare treasure for us because despite extensive searching we have been unable to locate any other medical professionals with significant experience treating lead poisoning other than acute poisoning in children and factory workers.
  10. Population density may be a significant factor. Wyoming has far fewer infections and deaths per capita than New York despite far less effort to limit the spread.
  11. I see the opposite, this is going to hurt China badly for years to come and counties will rely less on China going forward, and also have no tolerance for their abusive practices (endless state run cyber attacks on nearly every US tech company for example, forced tech knowledge transfer, IP theft, fraud, the China hustle, counterfeiting, etc.) I wasn't thinking in terms of popularity but rather dominance in things such as manufacturing, trade, technology, finance and control of capital and resources which provide the foundation for political and military dominance. It looks like China has a good sense of who is infected and is able to implement focused quarantines which while challenging is likely sustainable versus our approach of blindly shutting down regional economies in fear of outbreaks or in response to outbreaks spiraling out of control. The US and the EU have been operating on increasing levels of debt which was shakily sustained by economic growth. But now we are piling on trillions more in debt as GDP shrinks without purchasing a solution to the crisis. How long will lenders keep accepting paltry interest as the capacity for repayment becomes more tenuous and printing presses erode the value of our currency? With the most expensive medical system in the world what happens when the bill comes due for extended ICU stays for possibly millions of people? We also have sunk vast capital into unconventional oil and gas which was hemorrhaging money before the glut of Saudi Arabia's supply war with Russia and the demand destruction of globe spanning antiviral economic shutdowns. The US has sailed into a rapidly developing shit storm with a mad captain at the helm and while kicking at our friendly EU poodle which is beginning to froth at the mouth and snap at its own tail. If China avoids catastrophe they could come out on top.
  12. I hope you are right but I sure wouldn't bet on it. Covid-19 is not a deadlier flu. It is a novel threat with very different properties. A significant percentage of the infected develop severe respiratory distress. Most are saved with appropriate intensive care. But Covid-19 is brutal to hospital staff. It creates massive surges in patient load in just a few weeks. It infects and sometimes kills medical staff, even healthy young people without preexisting conditions. When hospitals are overwhelmed patients die at much faster rates. We got a small teaser of this in Wuhan, a much bigger repeat in Italy apparently plateaued but far from over, Spain following Italy's path and New York may become the worst example yet. New hot spots are beginning to pop up in New Jersey, Michigan and many other states. We don't have a unified approach so when a state implements very strict measures subduing the virus they will still be at high risk of reintroduction from others allowing the virus to propagate less restrained. It looks to me like we are in for a long difficult year with repeated ugly surprises. I don't like predicting the unpredictable but I expect this is going to accelerate China's ascendancy versus the declining US and the EU.
  13. Todd Allen

    CR with ZeroCarb

    He hasn't participated here in a long time and is unlikely to see your message. You might try using the private messaging function of these forums which may send him an email.
  14. Todd Allen

    Growing mushrooms at home

    I used to grow shitakes in logs. It took significant effort to get started (gathering the logs and inoculating them) and several months of maintenance (keeping them sufficiently damp) before they would produce but then they would be harvestable for months with little effort. I grew mine outside on the shady side of our house and after a couple years animals, probably raccoons, developed a taste for them. I found growing oyster mushrooms easier, especially because I could more readily obtain free substrates for growing medium such as spent brew grain, coffee chaff and sawdust. I grew oysters in our basement which prevented loss to animals but I ended up sacrificing the space to other needs. Tempeh was my favorite fungus to grow because it is so fast and needs so little space but I stopped when I developed a severe intolerance for soy.
  15. 22 dead today at a 2% fatality rate suggests 1100 new infections on the day roughly 20 days prior. They reported 227 new infections today but I'd bet it was between 8800 and 17600 as there ought to have been 3 or 4 doublings in spread rate from the 1100 per day 20 days ago. My guess is they will chicken out and attempt to slow it down within the next 2 or 3 weeks as bodies continue piling up at ever faster rates. After locking down hard they will still have another 2 to 3 weeks of growth in death rates.
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