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About mccoy

  • Birthday 01/01/1960

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  1. The explanation elucidated in the Attia-Osteholm podcast posted by Dean on the initially tiny CFR in Germany has been around for only a few days and appears to be reasonable. Apparently, SARSCOV2 has been introduced in Germany by skiers who went to the Italian ski tracks. The infected people where usually young and without comorbidities. So in their group fatalities were Nihil or little, until the virus worked its way to older and sick individuals. Presently, the CFR is approaching the range of 1 to 2% which is the one commonly accepted, when dealing with officially confirmed cases at the numerator. I wonder why the propagation has been so slow, maybe in Germany young people do not live in the same house as older people, like it is the usual case in Italy. So, anomalously low number of CFR are apparently a clue of a transient situation which will stabilize into a larger CFR.
  2. In some parts of Italy, 20% is just the usual unemployment rate!!
  3. RE. fatality rates: the more I'm hearing the news, the more it seems that such a parameter can be totally unreliable. The German number is way too low. Lower than the Diamond princess estimate, so there is probably some wrong procedure in identifying Covid19 deaths or some other unknown confounder. I might be wrong but that is an outlier which must be deleted or explained, in my little knowledge of data processing. Another eloquent example: I would have never believed that, but in some small towns in Lombardy they showed that Covid19 deaths are probably being underestimated by sometimes an order of magnitude. How they did that? Simply by consulting the historical data on deaths for the month of March. In some towns, the March average in 2020 was by far larger than the historical average. No doubt, the difference is due to the largest anomaly that occurred in the latest decades, the SARSCOV2 pandemic. Of course, in those small towns, the population is largely made up of elders. The deaths have been grossly underestimated nevertheless. In oen instance, they cited 130 deaths not attributed to Covid19, but above the historical average. In a small town, that's a lot to understate it. The above shows 3 general points: Reasonings based on CFRs may be very fallacious since there are so many confounding factors which govern the parameter If in some parts of Lombardy deaths have been so grossly underestimated, then CFR would approach 15-20% of confirmed cases and this can only mean that the persons which have really been exposed to the virus may be at least 1 to 2 millions, possibly more from my raw estimate (Lombardy has 10 million citizens). All the number published, even by apparently reliable sources, are most probably totally inaccurate, not even giving a first order estimates. Bottom line: the only objective parameter to measure the seriousness of this Epidemic, in the western world seems to be the degree of saturation of the hospitals and ICUs, a parameter which varies according to the efficiency of individual states and regions.
  4. Tomb, right now it seems that Italy has hit a plateau in the spreading of epidemics. If we estimate that in May we may have a significant slump in contagion, then there arises the question: what to do now? Most assuredly, life will not be the same as previously and all sorts of public meetings will continue to be banned. There is really little probability that by 8-10 June the virologists might have gathered together. Also, so far there continues to be a lack of protective masks. The restarting strategy will be critical but there are the examples of China and S korea now. Everything is still fuzzy and hard to foresee.
  5. That's my main concern as well. Situation in India is now unthinkable to us westerners. People are walking back to their villages for hundreds of miles (in the process propagating the virus most efficiently everywhere).
  6. Now, this aspect begs the question: are Covid-19 deaths being corrected for underestimation? Or are they on the contrary being overestimated? I think that both is happening, but we don't know exactly how and where the only clue is CF ratio. Too high= likely overestimation, too low, likely underestimation. Sounds obvious, but probably it's as simple as that. Other factors may contribute, but again, some abysmal differences may not be due to the advocated causes of older population, more numerous hospital beds and ventilator units. And, sorry for being suspicious, there is the political factor: underestimating deaths may be a political advantage for a nation, a pretty strong one.
  7. Just yesterday the news in Italy have officialized the 'loss of smell+taste' symptoms, citing 30% of occurrence in confirmed cases which have been followed-up in Lombardy. It's probably related to the neurological effects of SARSCOV2 cited in a previous post. Probably soon something more will come up in the scientific literature.
  8. Yes, I really don't know what their evacuation proficiency can be in the bathroom. Again, good luck to them....
  9. OK, that article makes sense, but its focus is on the 5-stars and PM Conte supporting business relationships with China, with Salvini not too happy about it. All other things are ancient, presently the political scenario in Italy is very, very fast-paced, I just could not understand your references to China, Russia, Trojan horses and so on. If you want to start to understand present Italian policy ( I'll point out that I myself do not understand it fully), 4 points will suffice: Salvini is the strongest, he was able to raise its party from a limited 4% in Lombardy to a 34% consensus in whole Italy. He has won 8 regional elections out of 9. He gambled and lost in August, to become PM. Now he's at work to become a PM with renewed energy. He started as a nationalist, he may be called a populist but he also may be defined a socialist (in the etimological sense), since is supported by blue collars and low-income classes. Conte is a non-elected PM, supported by the Vatican. He's not very popular among Italians. The present government is an unnatural one. The 5-stars, from populist and huge enemies of the left-wing, eventually allied with them, aware that with new elections Salvini would win. 5-stars are an incompetent lot, they lost huge consensus, from 40% to presently less than 10%. They accepted the unnatural alliance because with new elections most of them would loose their congressional seat and money. Most of them do not have a job outside the parliament. They are the real populists, who deceived their voters with the alliance with the anti-populists. 5-stars and left wings hate each other, they sued each other in the past, but agreed to the allinace not to let Salvini become PM. They are also trying to politically kill Salvini by sending him to trials. An emerging figure is Giorgia Meloni, theoretically more right wing allied with Salvini but who is apparently eroding some of Salvini's consensus.
  10. It might be, exactly one year ago Salvini did not join the other ministers in a lunch with the Chinese president, whereas Di Maio was enthusiastic about the silk road project. What I can tell you is that Salvini still supports the possibility of stronger links with Russia. Partly because Russia used to be a huge importer of Italian goods. Definition of populist: a person, especially a politician, who strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups. This definition might apply to Salvini, if the established elite groups are the bankers and others which presently are supported by the left-wingers. As a matter of fact, the blue-collar workers used to be leftists, whereas today most of them feel more represented by Salvini and his right-wing (not extreme right as many journalists erroneously define him). This was the situation until a few months ago. I don't know exactly now, the situation changes very fast here. Presently the right-wingers at the opposition are prompting the government to be quicker and more assertive in funding the unemplyed of the pandemic.
  11. This is the article on CE discussed: Brenner et al., 1999 (I am just wondering if it has already been posted by Dean or others, I'll link it anyway).
  12. Medcram Coronavirus series #46 has been an excellent one. The SARS-COV-2 virus has given to us the opportunity to update on basic immunology, and Medcram examines the relationship between the immune system, cold, and heat. Apparently, cold improves the response of the innate immune system, which is the one that tends to be inhibited by SARSCOV2. The innate system, which includes the natural killer-cells, is very strong in the young (hence the very low Covid19 incidence) and is apparently strengthened by cold temperatures and also heat (inner heat in fevers and artificially caused heat in saunas). Finnish Sauna seems to be particularly apt, with its alternate cold and hot impulses. Dr Seheult cites some scientific articles, which deny all the popular stuff about cold being bad for health and favouring sickness and so on and so forth. Stuff which all of us who practise CE empirically know well is just the opposite of what happens in reality.
  13. A presentation form Carnivorycon, of course, even though not without some rigorous points, tends to speak the party line, that meat has enough of everything, even vitamin C. Good luck to the carnivores!
  14. Ron, you are interested into Italian politics, but maybe you are consulting sources which are a little confused. Conte does not appear to be threatening europe, he's rather underlining that the very purpose for which Europe was borne is at risk of failure. Please note his faction so far has been a strong supporter of Europe, but it seems they are being disabused. More countries in addition to Italy and Spain are favourable to the Coronavirus bonds, whereas Germany remains reluctant. I'm not aware that the right-wingers are favouring China, sure not last year. Salvini and Meloni are rather wary of China, whereas Di Maio and his 5-star movement have been very favourable., especially so during a meeting with Xi-Jinping last year. They are strict-sense populists, wheras Salvini is nationalist, not a populist, although he can draw huge crowds.
  15. Long queues out there? Let us know about your mother, might not be SARS-COV2