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mihaicl1981

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Everything posted by mihaicl1981

  1. Hello all. This CR Society is also somewhat connected with the future of society. Some of you will live actually for pretty long periods of time. All the info I have is pointing to huge inequality in the western world (US probably leading). This inequality will get even worse as AI evolves even further (and business chooses to lower costs). So far everywhere (including in my part of the world) outsourcing (China /India) is blamed. Still outsourcing is just the prequel to automation. I am afraid killing outsourcing in US (as mr. Trump claims) will bring manufacturing back to US but to the robots. Tesla for instance is by all means an American car .. but built largely by American robots and software engineers. Self-driving cars and trucks (Dean probably is the expert) will be here in 10 years or less (in US probably sooner). With the existing technology the need for humans is already pretty low . If you read Martin Ford's books (http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/ and https://ig.ft.com/sites/business-book-award/books/2015/winner/the-rise-of-the-robots-by-martin-ford) you will understand that even with 2009 technology level there probably is no way to beat inequality. 2009 was before Watson's demonstration in Jeopardy and before AlphaGo's success in Go (actually this alone was 10 years sooner than I expected). What worries me most is that humans are not only unemployed but also unemployable .. simply not useful anymore unless they are really , really smart. Yes as a software engineer I used to think the next 15-20 years were safe .. but with all the recent changes I am not sure at all .. So why don't we just grant anybody a basic income ? Make sure nobody (and I mean on the planet) does not drop below a certain level. Already the rich get this as dividends,rent , coupons from bonds and other forms of wealth creation As I am writing this experiments are being conducted in Finland , Canada and some countries in Asia (also in US by YCombinator). What do you guys think ?
  2. mihaicl1981

    Basic income -does anybody see another sustainable solution?

    Talking about technology .. I am typing this on my new Bluetooth keyboard connected to my Nexus 7. In 2000 only after huge sacrifices and savings(college) I was able to purchase a used Pentium 1 computer. I learned to code C++ on that one. Now 15 years later I own one smartphone, one ultrabook(Asus Zenbook), two tablets (one work provided) and a desktop (dual-monitor setup). The sad thing is that I think I coded much more at home on that Pentium 1 (133 MHz I think) and did some part time projects . it's true I did play some Red alert 1 games as well. Now I am still coding/testing stuff at home but not nearly as much. You get used to stuff(especially good stuff) very easily. I think It's called hedonic adaptation. Getting back to the basic income stuff. Would a poor student be able to do much more than a (luckily still) employed software engineer if he didn't need to actually question money ? I was forced to work hard to get a scholarship (not huge in Romania) and save. What if I got the computer for free ? I think I would have still used it . I had to use a friend's computer + university computers (back then they still had 286-386 processors). PS: I was even considering buying a netbook to code on the subway but I think enough is enough :)
  3. mihaicl1981

    Basic income -does anybody see another sustainable solution?

    Well not picking on Warren. I am picking on the fact he could have used his intellect for better things. Actually I really like the old man. Regarding Manna .. I read it a few times and while I am not sure about the VR part and head in the box part I am quite sure that the "Australia project" (or basic income) would really be a huge support for science and research. Again maybe way too naive .. I suppose most people do it more for the money than the fame. Getting back to CR .. it is a lot easier to do it in weekend and holidays. Usually I try to mix in daily limited fasting (not eating after 13.00) but it's quit difficult when I am at work. Stress (especially due to deadlines) can be harmful (especially to my diet). I am sure that following CR is a lot easier for retired folks (unfortunately I am still 29 years away from the mandatory retirement age).
  4. mihaicl1981

    Basic income -does anybody see another sustainable solution?

    @Dean : I kind of like Mr. Scott Santens posts. Well the issue with basic income and not knowing what to do with ourselves is quite debatable. The same argument must have been made about slaves. They we're too "stupid" to handle their own lives without their protective masters. How could they continue to work without the whip ? How could they know when to eat and how to work the land and how to build the houses? Does anybody even question this now ? Perhaps we can improve our education (say get a master of PhD). Perhaps even work on really important stuff (curing cancer and other killer diseases). Consider how many extremely smart individuals are working on these problems (vs say investment banking, cat photos searching (Facebook,Google)) Improving our own intelligence would be extremely important (but sadly there is no magic pill (NZT-48) that will do this). Is anybody working on this except the pharmaceutical companies (profit driven/short sighted as usual) ? Please read this (already old) series to understand what I mean : http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm Is this naive ? Maybe .. How about the concept of interest and dividends ? Is it not the same problem ? Basically this is also "free" money meaning we don't work for it. Owning stock in a corporation (or a set of corporations) that do not hire a lot of people and pay you dividends is the same as "basic income". Owning a house (that you probably inherited) and renting it out to people is the same. And nobody ever (in US probably nobody in next 100 years) has any complaint about stocks and bonds(not to mention real-estate). I am not complaining either .. getting 1-10% of my investment back each year is good. What is wrong with rising the level for everybody ? Basically it's a win-win situation. PS: As we have a few free days in Romania I am reading a lot of books on investing ("Snowball" about Warren Buffet's life is one of them). Most people that were expert investors were driven by the concept of being independent and free. For me it's sad that a very smart guy like Warren Buffet is not doing something better for humanity.Bill Gates at least is trying after retiring(better than nothing).
  5. mihaicl1981

    Basic income -does anybody see another sustainable solution?

    I am not interested in politics. We have our own corrupt politicians in Europe (and Romania). Still want to underline UBI - unconditional basic income is not similar to food stamps. UBI would mean everybody (including Donald Trump and Warren Buffet) would receive it. Actually in Romania we had at some point a basic income form but it was actually just 100$ and granted to families without other income (so welfare kind of like food stamps). As we have a average income of ~ 800$/month that is not even close to covering the basics. Wonder how many people would be more healthy (including by practicing CR) if they didn't have to go to work everyday to jobs they (sometimes) hate. For me being calm and relaxed is essential to try to follow the daily diet. Under pressure I tend to binge eat (still vegan) sweets which always affect my calories/nutrient balance in a bad way :(.
  6. mihaicl1981

    Basic income -does anybody see another sustainable solution?

    To be honest since Trump got electedI lost confidence completely in humanity and the way leaders are chosen for so many people. More than US will be affected Short term things like Brexit and Trump happen. A bit like the dark age. Long term changes like basic income will happen. Probably not in US were free healthcare is still not implemented. But like slavery took years to be abolished it will take time and changes. Slavery was also considered good for the economy in some parts of the world. As for self driving cars and trucks I think technology challenges will be conquered soon(ish). For me it would be a improvement although I use subway and bike 90% of the time. My confidence in human drivers is pretty low. Stupid accidents that kill people happen almost daily where I live.
  7. mihaicl1981

    The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant

    Without further discussion CR is not the silver bullet. Still if you manage to get cardiovascular problems out of the way you are already way ahead. This is my first pillar : reduce risk of heart disease. Cancer is probably the 2nd and mental diseases are the ones worrying me most. As I said the most probable dragon slayer will be AI (Strong AI , General AI you name it). Getting back to the fable I still find it (12 years later) inspiring ..
  8. mihaicl1981

    The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant

    Hello Gordo. That somebody was me :). Started with Facebook now on the site. I was a big CR believer in 2003-2006 Than life happened and all this was somewhere in the back of my mind (when you're 25 the fear of your final destination is not that overwhelming). Now 12 years later being older and wiser I might as well start actually doing it :). There is no actual risk in doing CR and I have been a vegetarian (some small gaps) for the past 3 years anyway. Surprised the fable not incredibly well known actually on this site. I think I found it on the Mprize site some years ago and was absolutely amazed that somebody could think this way. Nick Bostrom is simply a great thinker. Way ahead of many of us ( I am also fascinated by "Superintelligence" -his recent book).
  9. mihaicl1981

    The Singularity May be Closer than It Appears

    Hello all . I am a software engineer with interest in CR,programming and of course machine learning Singularity is really farther away than we here on CR forums might think. I wish we were already at the famous "escape velocity" were for each year passed technology would be able to add another year in life span. Even for the most serious CR followers (I am really not there) it might not be the case. My 2 cents : People are unwilling to commit to artificial intelligence research at a real "Apollo" program level. I am following DeepMind and other researchers (like Ben Goertzel) closely and appreciate their efforts. But it's just a drop in the ocean... the general population does not have the interest in this AI thing (most people actually believe the scary Terminator, Transformer ,2001 A Space Odissey movies). While the most recent advances (beating Lee Sedol at Go, DQN algorithms, the differentiable neural computer, even Starcraft 2 skills https://deepmind.com/blog/deepmind-and-blizzard-release-starcraft-ii-ai-research-environment/)are all very promising it will take decades before these trickle down to general usage. Why I say that ? My software engineering experience :In 1950's a interesting functional programming language was developed. It's name was LISP. Only now some 70 years later are we using functional programming in our lives as programmers( one of them is actually a LISP dialect called Clojure). Ideas as old as the '70s (the actor model) have only been implemented in real systems after 2009. Neural networks are more than 50 years old (and yet we are merely starting to build better architectures). Electric cars are nearly a century old. While I was a huge fan of Ray Kurzweil I think he might be overly optimistic. If there will be a weapon that will slay the dragon tyrant (aging that is) I believe artificial intelligence will be it. Will singularity happen around 2045 ? I wish it were so .. but think it will take at least 20 years more (wishing it was here already). Hope my children will live to see it .. although being on the last train to the mountain (last one to die) is indeed a pity.
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