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Ron Put

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  1. The nuts topic prompted me to look more closely at my own apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A-1 numbers (B: 71 (not great, I think) and A-1: 151, with a ratio of 0.47 (good enough)). Here is an interesting and easy to read summary -- it's old, but I haven't seen dramatic new developments: The apo B/A-I Ratio -- A Stronger Predictor of Cardiovascular Events Than LDL, HDL, or Total Cholesterol, Triglycerides, or Lipid Ratios
  2. Here is something else to ponder: With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19
  3. Dean, the fact is that every year there are emergency rooms which get overwhelmed, somewhere in the country. It was true during the 2018 flu wave in both NY and Milan -- I won't pollute this thread with links, but a search will find plenty. In fact, in NY 2018 was bad enough that the medical community formally approached the state about infrastructure improvements in case of a repeat, but the requests were denied by the Cuomo Administration. There is plenty of blame on all sides, if we look for it. Covid-19 was politicised from the start and many noted it, although I don't believe anyone foresaw the impact it would eventually have. Anyone who paid attention knew that over the last decade there has been a major push by China to gain influence over international organizations -- the election of Tedros to head the WHO raised a lot of red flags at the time, which is probably the only reason for the unity which stopped China stacking the WIPO this past March. What troubles me most is the militant political orthodoxy which drove the wave of lock-downs: Not only was it based on clearly bad data and bad models, but it openly attacked and denigrated all opposing opinions, to the point where major social media channels were pressured to block accounts which presented an alternative view. When you don't have open discussion, major mistakes can be made and I believe this is what happened in the case of the Covid-19 response. It's telling that both BBC and NPR have opened war of words on Brazil and even Sweden, airing stories which are pure FUD. There will be a rush to spin the numbers to justify the lock-downs. But the fact is, Covid-19 was not much worse than the other four corona viruses which spread over the last two decades and which are no part of the annual "flu" season. It is very contagious (I am not sure where you got R0 5, I've seen mostly R02.3 and it's being revised down, closer to the R0 1.7 seen for influenza), which is why many questioned WHO's urging that the world acts in the manner of Chinese-style "containment," instead of Sweden-style "mitigation.". This is also telling of the political storm to come: Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines "In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID cannot be made but is suspected or likely (e.g. the circumstances are compelling with a reasonable degree of certainty) it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as 'probable' or 'presumed.'" In response, Jensen told Ingraham the CDC's death certificate manual tells physicians to focus on "precision and specificity," but the coronavirus death certification guidance runs completely counter to that axiom. "I’ve never been encouraged to [notate 'influenza']," he said. "I would probably write 'respiratory arrest' to be the top line, and the underlying cause of this disease would be pneumonia ... I might well put emphysema or congestive heart failure, but I would never put influenza down as the underlying cause of death and yet that’s what we are being asked to do here." Contrast this with the swine flu epidemic in 2009, when despite urging, the honeymooning Obama Administration refused to even count infections and deaths. And contrast it with the regular flu, which kills far more people, but which many states refuse to track -- New Your doesn't to the best of my knowledge, and California tracks only deaths among those over 65. ------ I just did a quick search about South Carolina and it appears that robust social distancing measures were already well in place by March 25th. As comparison, California shut down all non-essential businesses on March 20th. I have not seen any empirical evidence that Covid-19 can be contained, and as WHO stated, a virus with R0 of 1.3-1.7 cannot be contained (which is why they do nothing about the flu). Why would it make any sense that a virus with R0 of 2.3 (or R05, as you claim) can be contained?! And "containment" is the sole reason for the lock-downs.
  4. Ron Put

    Nuts and Mortality

    This is totally anecdotal, since it applies only to me and it may be a fluke: I have been taking vitamin K (both 4 and 7), but when I had a microbiome test, it showed that I had heaps of vitamin K producing bacteria, a lot more than base. If the results were accurate, it's likely due to my mostly plant-based diet. Also, I don't normally take supplements such as zinc (I just started) or iron, yet my test results for both were fine (it's apparently good to be on the low end for iron). I get most of from legumes, nuts, cacao nibs and greens like spinach. Which would support the argument you make and the claims made by the above study and Saul. In fact, I didn't have any deficiencies other than low-normal B-12 and high folate, which I brought within norm by starting B-12 supplementation (now I take 1 tablet of 1000mcg every three days). I've had only one blood test done since I joined here and started using Cronometer, but will see how things look when I go next, now that I have been tracking intake pretty meticulously.
  5. Ron Put

    Nuts and Mortality

    Regular Consumption of a High-Phytate Diet Reduces the Inhibitory Effect of Phytate on Nonheme-Iron Absorption in Women with Suboptimal Iron Stores.
  6. Ron Put

    Testosterone, Luteinizing Hormone and Mortality

    It's quite likely that this is a valid explanation. It appears that being within normal T levels is good, and maybe being in the upper range (without supplementation) as one gets older is beneficial to longevity.
  7. What part of "Covid-19 is CONTAINABLE because it is NOT AS CONTAGIOUS like the flu" is giving you trouble? This was the main reason why WHO called for all countries to implement lock-downs. Here is an example: "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom expressed the concern in a press briefing on Thursday, saying that some countries were laxed in the war against the virus. "Despite our frequent warnings, we are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it," he said. "Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up. The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous. On the contrary, we have to double down."" Many experts disagreed, but were then attacked by the press: This will not be contained': Experts cast doubt that spread of COVID-19 can be stopped "But some medical experts believe that the containment stage has long since passed, that the spread of the COVID-19 is inevitable, and that living with the coronavirus could become a reality. COVID-19 is the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus. "This will not be contained, this has not been contained," said Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician at Toronto General Hospital.... Some have suggested the virus will run its course throughout the world and burn itself out, while others believe that the novel coronavirus will integrate itself into the seasonal viruses that come around every winter, causing clusters of COVID-19. "This is going to become like some of the other coronaviruses that we have. There are four of them that cause disease every year. This is likely to become the fifth coronavirus at that capacity," Adalja said. "This isn't unprecedented. And the vast majority of cases are going to be mild," he said. "This isn't something that's going to be cataclysmic." In the UK, the Oxford study which said the same thing was mocked by Ferguson and by the press. In the US, political opportunists like Cuomo and Newsom in the US used it to declare that Trump failed as a leader, because he did not impose a lock-down. Then they implemented their own lock downs, hailed as "true leaders" by the US media. In Italy and some other parts of Europe, it was the Right which used the WHO praise of the China model to push for a local lock-downs. Again, this was a political, not a medical crisis. I hate defending Trump, but he was right on this. Being an opportunist and a populist himself, he changed course, one-upped the Democrats and his poll numbers started raising. He is likely to get reelected, and we all deserve our leaders (this goes for Sibiriak, too). ___ I am certain that you personally see all kinds of things.... Is this why Covid is in virtually every country in the world, just like the flu? Here is an example of a government report: French economy shrinks to WW2 levels, no end in sight for Covid-19 lockdown ___ This is interesting indeed, as it is how the Netherlands discovered the Covid-19 infection was present, before they had any actual cases. All kinds of live viruses are routinely found in the sewage systems around the world, having survived treatment. While it sounds scary, I am not aware of any cases of an infection spreading this way. On the other hand, it is the reason why social media spread the rumors that nobody should go on the beach, because the water spray/vapor will infect them.
  8. Hm, those statements by WHO, that you think "no one puts any stock into," are the whole basis for WHO's recommendation that the world follow the China lock-down model. They ARE the reason why much of the world has shut down. Given the dire consequences as a result of the shutdown, methinks we should all care if it was all a lie. I disagree with some of what the Gates foundation is doing, but it is their money and in a liberal democracy they can do what they wish, as long as it's not illegal. Perhaps you should stop obsessing with their "vast influence" over how they spend their own money and focus more on the "peace-loving" oligarchy where you apparently live? Also, speaking of obsession, I notice a trend of choice doom and gloom anecdotal and speculation posts in the vein of the above, all obsessing with the West.... ----------------------- Yep, it's another Covid-19 aspect which puts it close to influenza, which has a relatively high reinfection rate. Which means it's very likely that this coronavirus will join the other four corona viruses which have become endemic to the world's human population and reappear seasonally. ------------------------- So, even if as high as that, which I am strongly doubting, this will be a bad flu. Looking at Sweden, Belarus and Brazil, and some US states, there is no evidence that a complete lock-downs are significantly better at preventing the spread of Covid-19 than prudent distancing, which all of us do in the case of the flu. Despite of the media onslaught which is lighting a fire under local politicians to force lock downs. So, there is no evidence that the most dramatic (probably ever) politically-motivated peace time disruption of the world economy was justified. Yet, here we are, with much worse to come.
  9. Wow! This is what you got out it...?!! I guess it affirms the old adage that you can't lose money or an election by underestimating the public's intellectual acuity. On another note, to keep things in perspective, here are the latest US mortality estimates for Covid-19 and for the flu: Flu: Covid-19: I am certain that partisans still feel it was "great leadership" to seed fear and hysteria, and to plunge the US into a depression. Interesting, although based on a small number of what seems to be Chinese patients, so I'd be curious if it's supported by a larger and more reliable dataset. Have you checked your your past results? ALT levels may jump up for a variety of reasons, like if you've had a few glasses of alcohol, or if you've taken something with acetaminophen, or if you are taking medication for cholesterol. If you didn't have elevated levels before, it's likely an aberration.
  10. Ron Put

    Steven Austed interview - longevity in humans

    "Let's imagine that we discover a gene mutation that doubles lifespan. If this is so great, why didn't nature do this a long time ago? If it has an effect on reproduction or the [time] to sexual maturity, it may turn out — from an evolutionary standpoint — not to be a good gene, but to be a bad gene." We have some evidence, including from other primates, that variation in time to sexual maturity and gestation period have tremendous evolutionary impact. There is some evidence that the reason modern humans decimated competing groups such as the (arguably spatially "smarter") Neanderthals, is because the gestation period became a little shorter in humans and we outbred them. But natural selection has long stopped in humans, so science is the only way forward in extending life-span. Methinks it's a matter of when, not if. But it's unlikely to happen within my life-span.
  11. Yeah, OK.... So, you read it and you then agree with the listed WHO reasons for imposing China's draconian measures in the West, because: 1. According to WHO, Covid-19 is not nearly as contagious as the flu, thus it can be contained through forced isolation and contact tracing, which is impossible for the flu, because it is much more contagious. 2. Covid-19 has a death rate of 3.4%. I must be confused, because it is pretty clear that both of these claims are false. Yet the question remains, if the claims used by WHO to promote the China isolation model are false, why isn't someone pointing out that the Emperor has no clothes? Politics, maybe? Because these questions are asked in trade publications, but not in the media.... I wonder what is the purpose of posting these "human interest" videos or social media posts, when they provide no useful information but only serve to amp up the feeling of doom and gloom. Again, search for ERs overwhelmed by flu cases in 2018, for instance, and you'll find plenty of just such human interest anecdotal "reports." There are clear differences in all sorts of areas, but the evidence is all over the place and often contradictory. My understanding is that is because the complexity is far greater than the simple blood group delineations. But I haven't seen a reliable study to confirm that this is really the case. The paranoid use this supposed greater A susceptibility to claim that this is a Chinese weaponized virus, since A is much more prevalent among Caucasians than among Asians :D Interesting observation. I recall reading a study about a particularly deadly flu strain in the late 1960s which killed predominantly those under 60 (and it is one of the most deadly epidemics in the US, much deadlier than Covid-19). It turned out that those older than 65 had antibodies from a flu strain they had been exposed to decades earlier and had developed partial resistance to the late 1960s strain. I'll look for something on this later. But while possible, I also doubt that most of Eastern Europe is testing as much as the wealthier parts, so it may skew the number of infections. If Covid-19 is really a third more contagious than the average flu, it is likely that the infection rates are much, much higher than official stats (I see models suggesting 10x - 15x).
  12. Silly me.... I guess I was confused by this: "The number of daily coronavirus deaths in Italy fell to the lowest level in more than a week, as the head of the country's National Health Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, said...." But your reading comprehension is obviously so much better than mine and you insist that they mean the "death rate." As you insist that we should shut down the economy and impose martial law based on just such "noisy signals." Tushe! :D Let me try again: "By making a distinction between the viruses, Tedros has sought to rally global action against the new microbe. He and other WHO officials urged governments confronting the coronavirus to implement the public health measures that have been shown to reduce viral spread, such as isolating infected people, following those who come in contact with cases to see whether they develop illness, and suspending activities that bring together lots of people. “We don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu — it’s just not possible,” Tedros said. “But it is possible for Covid-19. We don’t do contact-tracing for seasonal flu — but countries should do it for Covid-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.” Tedros said, “We have never seen before a respiratory pathogen that’s capable of community transmission but at the same time which can also be contained with the right measures. If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.”... People should try to protect themselves individually from flu strains, said Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s emergencies program, but at a societal and global level, “we don’t necessarily attempt to contain or stop them because we fundamentally believe they will spread unabated.”... [P]eople who have been infected with influenza but are not yet showing symptoms drive a lot of the spread of that virus. WHO officials have said that, based on data from China’s outbreak, only a tiny fraction of infected people do not show symptoms and that they do not seem to be accounting for much transmission." OK, this is the argument made by Tedros for why we should all implement lock-downs, which was adopted by the Right in Italy and the Left in the US to clobber their respective opposition. I guess if someone has difficulties seeing the glaring factual and logical problems in the above excerpt, it's really too much to ask of them to differentiate between my question and Fernando's. Kind of goes with believing the headline that 230,000 centenarians are missing in Japan.... (I couldn't resist, the parallels are just too obvious :)
  13. Huh?!! Signs of hope in Italy as daily death toll falls again And, I guess my questions above won't be answered.... Just a reminder: If WHO's argument is that we do nothing about the flu because it spreads too easily, but that we should follow the China containment model for Covid-19, because it doesn't spread easily, and if that argument is based on a false premise (because the fact is that that Covid-19 is even more transmissible than the flu), what is the logic behind arguing that we should still follow the China model?
  14. What's much more troubling is why the comparisons are always to 9/11 or the Vietnam War, aimed at purposely amplifying the public fear from the numbers, instead of comparing Covid-19 to mortality numbers of past flu seasons? Because if we compare to past flu seasons, the numbers don't look dire. And the morgues have been full during past flu seasons, and we've had overwhelmed emergency rooms, too. And neither NY state, nor CA report flu deaths -- CA counts only flu deaths in hospital patients over 65. Why are we all not troubled by any of this?
  15. Not really true. The "don't panic" Wired article was at the beginning of the swine flu epidemic, when it was considered to be particularly deadly and 5 months before a vaccine emerged. The media and social media did not relentlessly drive us to panic with hour by hour death rates and accusing the government of failure to act. In 2020, things are much different and we have nonsense like this: After Grassroots Uprising, AZ Governor Issues Stay-At-Home Order To Prevent Spread Of COVID-19 "imagine" is the problem here. As John Ioannidis noted in the article I posted earlier, we are following a model of extreme measures based on apocalyptic, worse-case scenarios created out of bad or non-existent data. Politics and the media frenzy have closed the ability to have a reasoned discussion exploring all options, drumbeating all of us into an economic destruction with unknown social consequences. And yes, we can guesstimate the number of dead in places like Italy, which is at less than 14,000 total as of today and dropping. Which means that it is unlikely to reach the mortality level of the 2017-2018 flu season. BTW, there is informed speculation that the mortality rate in Italy was so high because the flu season was had been so mild that a lot fewer of the "at risk" population died from the flu than usual, which left a lot more of them susceptible to Covid-19. And it is far from clear that the lock down has any significant effect on the spread -- as WHO stated, we do nothing about the flu because it spreads regardless, with a reproductive number of 1.3 - 1.7. The estimated reproductive number for Covid-19 is 2.3, which means that it spreads even easier. So, I'll ask again, if WHO and the rest of us do nothing about the flu because it is too easily transmissible, what is the logic behind the argument that we can contain Covid-19 by following Cina's example, when Covid-19 is even more easily transmissible?