Jump to content

de Grey does Demography and the "Wall of Death"


Recommended Posts

Not sure if this was prev. posted ...



Note that this presentation (May 29 2017, Madrid, Spain) is not AdG's usual style. It is meant for an audience of demographers, mathematicians and statisticians.

So if any of these disciplines are your cup o' tea, the lecture should prove interesting ;)

I watched it fully--"glued to the set"!


To summarize: AdG reworks the famous Gompertz–Makeham equation to (ultimately) discover a "wall of death" that begins roughly 114-116 years-old humans (super centenarians). This 'barrier' was previously known (by sheer statistics only, I think -- i.e,  not mathematically derived) by data accumulated by the Los Angeles Gerontology Research Group.


This discovery would qualify for an ideal Numberphile video, where phenomenon in nature can correlate to various mathematical plots. E.g., Sloan's Gap:






Link to comment
Share on other sites

The list of supercentenarians on the GRG site is almost scary (for us dudes).


Only 41 people in the world are presently certified supercentenarians, that is their age is >= 110 years.


Among these, only one is male!! Frequentistically speaking, the present occurrence of male supercentenarians within the whole supercentenarian set is just 1/41 = 2.4%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, presently 41/7600000000 human beings are >110 yrs of age, that means 0.00000054% . Only one male human in the whole world population presently is beyond the 110 yrs threshold.


Seeing the raw numbes is just massively discouraging. I didn't watched the linked video yet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I managed to watch the presentation at last. The video is pretty long for what it says, the gist as far as I understood is that ADG linearized the Gompertz-Makeham equation and ran a Montecarlo simulation against the linear relationship with the relatively few data available.


The result was that the detrended residuals (observed values - theoretical values) exhibit that sudden peak which is construed as sort of an upper bound, an unknown factor which strongly prevents almost all humans from reaching the 120 years of age (is Calment the only exception?).


ADG's hypothesis remains a theoretical assumption, he just throws it in the face of the audience saying that if we understood the cause of such deviation (assuming the deviation reflect some inherent law of nature and is not random or caused by some bias, I would add), researchers might work on that mechanism and tear down, as it were, that wall of death.


The discouraging aspect is that all is still very theoretical and practical applications seem very very far to come, as the old timers of this forum have repeatedly reminded...

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Create New...