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Earthquake prediction


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For those of you living in EQ zones, you may want to brace up ...

Surprised this study (reported in Science, Oct. 2017) didn't get more attention:



One way or another, says James Dolan, a geologist at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, “we’re going to know in 5 years.” That’s because Earth’s rotation began a periodic slow-down 4-plus years ago. Beginning next year, Earth should expect five more major earthquakes a year than average—between 17 to 20 quakes, compared with the anomalously low four so far this year. If the pattern holds, it will put a new spin on earthquake forecasting.


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Khashmy, the time clustering of earthquakes is an observed fact and may be due to local stress readjustment within the crustal section. In Italy we observe both time and space clustering of earthquakes. The increase of M 7+ earthquakes has been observed where? In California? Why not in other nations like Italy, where earthquake catalogs are 2K years old?

Bottom line, the theory is interesting but still highly speculative, we'll se if the facts will grant more detailed research.


Edited by mccoy
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