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Neuralink announces "reveal" for next Tuesday (July 16th 2019) ‘ultra-high bandwidth brain-machine interfaces to connect humans and computers’

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What, HYPE?! No, say it ain't so, Joe! The more things change, the more they stay the same. Hype, hype, and more hype, same as it ever was. I remember, even on this board a few years ago, the hype took in quite a few, folks were expecting self-driving vehicles to take over any second now. Dean, to his credit, has always been a voice of reason, probably because he was involved in developing the technology so intimately - on a more joking note, I wonder if Dean had a nervous breakdown when he read about all those small R&D companies involved in the field getting bought out for billions by the big boys - this could've been Dean! He missed it by a hair! 

Meanwhile, to be fair, the world has been running on hype since forever - where would Musk be, without hype? He's his own best salesman, and investors are willing buyers, the bigger the hype, the more they love it, and nobody asks any questions. 

All I ask for is to remove the old "helpful" technologies from cars, such as the car alarm that's kept me awake last night as it kept going off about a block away. I'll take that over the self-driving hype any day.

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1 hour ago, TomBAvoider said:

I wonder if Dean had a nervous breakdown when he read about all those small R&D companies involved in the field getting bought out for billions by the big boys - this could've been Dean! He missed it by a hair! 

It wasn't quite by a hair - I got out of the self-driving car business about 8 years before Google started their project. Plus we were fortunate to sell our company and I'm financially comfortable as a result. So I can't complain.

But you are right, I have several friends who were junior to me and not even really working on self-driving cars until after I left the field who have gotten very rich and somewhat famous, including Chris Urmson (Google -> Waymo -> Aurora), Sébastian Thrun (Google -> Udacity -> Kitty Hawk), Pete Rander (Argo AI / Ford), and Tony Stentz (Uber).

1 hour ago, TomBAvoider said:

Meanwhile, to be fair, the world has been running on hype since forever - where would Musk be, without hype? He's his own best salesman, and investors are willing buyers, the bigger the hype, the more they love it, and nobody asks any questions. 

Very true. I took a shot at shorting Tesla stock a few years ago for about a month and realized it was losing battle. Fortunately I was a small position and I didn't take too much of a hit. Crazy to see Tesla stock these days. Several of my self-driving car buddies own Teslas and they love them as cars, but only use Autopilot sparingly and on highways. They know how dangerous it is in its current state of development.

--Dean

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I hear you Dean, and I'm glad you're not bitter. There's no sense in mourning something one has no control over. But the old saying "it's better to be lucky than to be good" nonetheless holds, as I myself have experienced more than once. Timing being more important than objective merit, such is the march of technology adoption - the best doesn't always win, but the one with the best timing. I'm sure you've had this experience before, as have I - when you're way ahead of the curve on something, but nobody is interested, and then much later someone else comes along and the timing is right and they're proclaimed the messiah. I've grown quite zen about it in my late age. Win some, lose some. And this also makes me somewhat immune to hype and fads and grandiose ideas about my own agency - I've lived too long to fall for the just world fallacy.

Speaking of shorting, apparently many small caps that are actually bankrupt or on the verge of bankruptcy have had much greater appreciation in the stock market than the average, because of the vagaries of how the government is supporting the market these days... it's funny to read about it, after years and years of clucking about how the Chinese government has supported their stock market in the past. And Tesla stock is bought by Robinhood small guys who push it up insanely - those are the same kinds of gamblers as the one who killed himself. Not exactly inspiring for the long term investor.

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On 7/20/2020 at 10:12 AM, Dean Pomerleau said:

As a result, the lower frequency of crashes that occur with Autopilot engage, either compared with other Tesla's without Autopilot engaged, or with non-Tesla vehicles overall is entirely expected even without Autopilot reducing crash frequency at all.

I am not sure that this explains the numbers very well, or that it supports your claim that Musk is guilty of "killing people or bilking them out of money with empty promises."

First, the technology continuously improves and two years can make a big difference.  Second, my experience is that many use Autopilot's feature to assist and it is hard to argue that it helps more than it hurts.  I personally do not know a single person who would rather be without Autopilot and this supports my impression:

 

Thousands of Tesla Owners ShareTheir Close Calls With Autopilot

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