Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[mccoy]

3 hours ago, BrianA said:

If you wear one here, you are gullible, selfish, foreign, sick, and asking for attention. But in Asia, face masks mean something else altogether.

When the news start reporting increasing deaths all around and terror rises, the mask becomes a familiar and even reassuring feature.

That's happening in Italy presently, my advise to you guys in America is buy facial masks until you can, afterwards they will be out and available only at the black market.

FPP3 or N95 are good. Only drawback is that they should be disposed after some exposure.

In lieu of the above models, I've started wearing an FPP1 mask with tissue paper on it when going to public places like shops and supermarkets. I'll then dispose of the tissue paper. Again, psychologically the mask has a reassuring effect, even though it may not be so effective. If you don't wear one will the epidemic is peaking, you might be regarded as irresponsible.

[tea]

1 hour ago, Sibiriak said:

With zinc, apparently it is  just a matter of not being deficient.  A while back I analyzed my dietary intake and started supplementing modestly (10 mg/d or so zinc citrate).

Quercetin:   ultra-mega doses being discussed:  3-7 grams.   Be aware that such doses carry potential dangers.

 

Is that true? If so, how does that explain the ~35% reduction in cold symptoms from hourly zinc lozenge dosing?

As for quercetin, there is EMIQ available from several major supplement companies that has approximately 40x bioavailability and is GRAS. It's dosed at 50-200mg which would be 2 - 10 gram quercetin equivalent. It has mostly been studied for rhinitis, but a recent study showed nice lower limb anabolism when adding it to whey protein, so a nice benefit. Not sure of the efficacy of it, or any forms of quercetin on viral outcomes though.

 

Mccoy, at least in my city, low cost masks have been sold out for weeks. They were the first thing to disappear from shelves, and are actually kind of a rare commodity here to begin with. Amazon too is completely void of them. Hand sanitizer and isopropyl alcohol are some other desirable commodities also missing from stores, but I believe transmission from air is much more likely than direct surface contact.

Edited March 13, 2020 by tea

[Sibiriak]

1 hour ago, tea said:

Is that true?

I was referring to Dr. Seheult's views (expressed in the videos above) about the coronavirus and a very specific  proposed mechanism of action.

While zinc lozenges may be able to reduce the duration and severity of a common cold a bit,  that does not qualify as evidence of efficacy in regard to coronavirus  infection.

A common cold is a mild,  usually self-limiting illness,  often caused by a rhinovirus affecting   nasal passages and throat primarily (secondarily,  the upper respiratory system.)  Zinc lozenges or syrup may be effective because the substance stays in contact with the rhinovirus in the throat.   It would seem hard to translate that mechanism of action to something effective against the coronavirus.

A common cold is not the same as the flu, and the flu is not the same as the coronavirus.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Matt]

A few days ago I shared a study on how Beta-Glucans prevented excessive damage from inflammation and infection in the lungs from H1N1 (swine flu). Here is another study using an extract from Shiitake mushrooms, which also contain beta-glucans. It significantly reduces alveolitis and lung damage in mice infected with Influenza. Beta-Glucans modulate the immune system. 

Excessive inflammation and fibrosis seem to be killing people infected with this new virus. 

Inhibition of Influenza Virus Infection by Lentinus edodes Mycelia Extract Through Its Direct Action and Immunopotentiating Activity

Takahiro Kuroki,¹ Sangjoon Lee,² Mikako Hirohama,³ Tomohiro Taku,¹ Michiko Kumakura,¹ Takahiro Haruyama,³ Kyosuke Nagata,³ and Atsushi Kawaguchi^1,2,3,*

Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer

Go to:

Abstract

Lentinula edodes mycelia (LEM) solid culture extracts contain many bioactive compounds with diverse pharmacological activities such as antitumor, antiviral, and immunopotentiating effects. In this study, we examined the anti-influenza virus activity of LEM in vitro and in vivo. LEM directly inhibited influenza virus growth in vitro at early phases of infection, possibly at the entry process of viral particles to host cells. We also found that the nasal administration of LEM increased the survival rate of infected mice, and this was likely due to the direct action of LEM on the viral growth. The oral administration of LEM showed prolonged median survival time of infected mice. Histological analysis revealed that the moderate bronchiolitis was observed in infected mice by the oral administration with LEM, and the extent of alveolitis was dramatically reduced. The orally LEM-administered mice showed a rapid activation of IFN-β gene expression upon influenza virus infection. These results suggest that the immunopotentiation activity of LEM on type I IFN pathway represses the virus spread to distal alveolar regions from peribronchiolar regions which are primary infection sites in the mouse model. We propose that LEM has anti-influenza virus activities through the direct action on viral growth and stimulatory activity of innate immunity.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5992414/

[Sibiriak]

Germany:

Lothar Wieler,  the leading public health and safety authority, said that:

Quote

...between 60-70% of the population would get the virus, due to the fact that it is new, there is no immunity against it, no vaccination against it and no treatment for it” and that “many many people” will have had it already without knowing it, and will have already recovered.

Those numbers are unquantifiable, but the more people who get it, long term, the better, as that will increase the immunity levels.

Four-fifths of people will get it very mildly with many not even realising they have it, he added.

One fifth will suffer serious symptoms. That could still amount to millions of people being severely ill at once, hence the repeated stress by health officials on slowing down its stress.

 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Matt said:

A few days ago I shared a study on how Beta-Glucans prevented excessive damage from inflammation and infection in the lungs from H1N1 (swine flu). Here is another study using an extract from Shiitake mushrooms, which also contain beta-glucans. It significantly reduces alveolitis and lung damage in mice infected with Influenza. Beta-Glucans modulate the immune system. 

Also Oatmeal is loaded with Beta-Glucan.  (And high in manganese, magnesium, soluble fibre, and is a gluten-free whole grain).

[Sibiriak]

 

4 hours ago, mccoy said:

I've started wearing an FPP1 mask with tissue paper on it when going to public places like shops and supermarkets. I'll then dispose of the tissue paper. Again, psychologically the mask has a reassuring effect, even though it may not be so effective.

Mccoy,  being a youngish man of superb health, strong as an ox, with an immune system to die for,  perhaps you should go ahead and catch the virus,  get it over with, and gain immunity from it.😷

That appears to be the English way forward at least:
 

Quote

Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, has defended the government’s approach to tackling the coronavirus...

[...] “Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.

[...] “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.

 

[Matt]

Beta Glucan from oatmeal is different and is a weak immune system modulator relative to yeast-derived glucans. AHCC also helps protect the lungs from damage and preserves the epithelial integrity in the lungs according to this study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17056815

"young C57BL/6 mice were supplemented with 1 g AHCC/(kg body weight x d) for 1 wk prior to and throughout infection with influenza A (H1N1, PR8). Supplementation increased survival, decreased the severity of infection, and shortened recovery time following intranasal infection with flu, as determined by the recovery of body weight and epithelial integrity in the lungs.

There's been research in animals and humans AHCC. I did a review of that research here: http://www.crvitality.com/2018/07/ahcc-benefits-and-side-effects/

Edited March 13, 2020 by Matt

[mccoy]

1 hour ago, Sibiriak said:

Mccoy,  being a youngish man of superb health, strong as an ox, with an immune system to die for,  perhaps you should go ahead and catch the virus,  get it over with, and gain immunity from it.😷

That appears to be the English way forward at least:

Ah well, thanks, but just the very small probability to undergo intubation into those IC units which conjure up scenes of inquisition and torture is enough to discourage me to gamble. The thought of Sir Patrick wallace may theoretically sound reasonable, providing they have enough medical capabilities, which I doubt. His ideas imply that lots of elderly people with conditions will be left to die. 

[Thomas G]

I've read mixed things about facemasks. But it still seems super irresponsible to horde medical facemasks when hospitals will be facing shortages. That isn't going to be good for anyone.

But I am wondering if it is possible to start sewing our own facemasks. A reasonably dense woven fabric, with a few layers. It's not going to be perfect or as good as an N95. But it has the advantage of being washable and reusable. If the main point is to just stop droplets from the mask wearer, any fabric barrier will significantly cut down on that, even if it isn't 100% perfect.

To me I see the main advantage as stopping us from touching our own faces. And stopping us from spreading the virus since we might be contagious without knowing it. Normalizing social responsibility seems good too.

I have to admit I would feel foolish going out in public with a facemask since where I live NOBODY is doing that yet. But I think it is probably the morally right thing to do. I worry that people's mindsets will adjust when it is too late.

Wearing a facemask might not be the most important thing to do (washing hands and social distancing seems more important), but for me at least there is a placebo element. And we know that placebos work. The feeling that we are doing what we can might help the mind-body link to strengthen our immune system.

[mccoy]

4 hours ago, Thomas G said:

have to admit I would feel foolish going out in public with a facemask since where I live NOBODY is doing that yet. But I think it is probably the morally right thing to do. I worry that people's mindsets will adjust when it is too late.

In Italy now it's exactly the opposite, being without a mask makes you sort of feel out of place. Today 95% of the people I saw around were wearing a mask or respirator.

Maybe if confirmed cases will take off over there and deaths start being significant then the fear will turn a mask into a familiar dressing accessory.

[mccoy]

And, I can confirm that Amazon is delivering with even more efficiency (probably due to the fact that the roads are empty).

[Ron Put]

7 hours ago, Matt said:

"young C57BL/6 mice were supplemented with 1 g AHCC/(kg body weight x d) ...

In a human of 65 kg, this would mean taking 65g of the stuff per day. Forget the expense, but I wonder what other effects such quantity of AHCC might have. And the evidence that it does much of anything in humans is scant....

Eating whole mushrooms as often as you can might be a wiser road to improving the immune system.

I also just realized that my water kefir is swimming in beta glucans, so now I really feel invincible :)

[BrianA]

Some good news is mask production is ramping up a lot in China in the past couple weeks. The availability of them around the world should eventually catch up and stabilize, going to take at least a further 4 to 6 weeks I'd guess just due to transport times and other factors.

 

China’s mask-making juggernaut cranks into gear, sparking fears of over-reliance on world’s workshop

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3074821/coronavirus-chinas-mask-making-juggernaut-cranks-gear

 

also, Alibaba's Jack Ma is donating some masks and other supplies to the US and other countries:

 

Alibaba billionaire Jack Ma just pledged to donate 500,000 coronavirus tests and 1 million face masks to the US as shortages mount

https://www.businessinsider.com/jack-ma-pledges-to-ship-coronavirus-tests-masks-to-us-2020-3

[Ron Put]

5 hours ago, mccoy said:

...The thought of Sir Patrick wallace may theoretically sound reasonable, providing they have enough medical capabilities, which I doubt. His ideas imply that lots of elderly people with conditions will be left to die. 

Actually, it makes sense to me: Since there are limited resources, expend them on those most vulnerable, who should also be protected and should protect themselves until there is a vaccine. Exposure for the rest will increase herd immunity, which will in turn make transmission less likely over time.

Methinks there is a lot more people already exposed, based on the incubation period, limited and significantly inaccurate available testing, and the ease of movement among populations. The draconian measures serve largely to to assure the public that their leaders are on top of it and make them feel that something is being done.

[BrianA]

Thank you FDA for speeding things up on the approvals:

 

Roche coronavirus test gets emergency FDA approval

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/roche-coronavirus-test-gets-emergency-fda-approval-2020-03-13

[mccoy]

5 minutes ago, Ron Put said:

Actually, it makes sense to me: Since there are limited resources, expend them on those most vulnerable, who should also be protected and should protect themselves until there is a vaccine. Exposure for the rest will increase herd immunity, which will in turn make transmission less likely over time.

Ron, I understood the opposite: if no restriction are implemented, then Sir Wallace suggests to do nothing to flatten the infected time series curve:

In other words, I think he says, forget about protective measures, let's go with the natural peak (curve in red) and let's overwhelm the healthcare system. The consequence of the overflow will be a huge number of deaths, but since those deaths will mainly be old, sick people (those who get pneumonia more easily), then it will be some sort of natural selection, the survival of the fittest, the nation will become younger, those survived will be immune. That way it will not be possible to protect the most vulnerable since they'll get infected in huge numbers.

Sounds a little like what the Nazis did, I don't know if I totally misunderstood.

[Ron Put]

3 minutes ago, mccoy said:

Ron, I understood the opposite: if no restriction are implemented, then Sir Wallace suggests to do nothing to flatten the infected time series curve:

...

Sounds a little like what the Nazis did, I don't know if I totally misunderstood.

I am certainly not fond of Boris and gang, but I think you are reading a political attack :)

Here is the idea:

"The UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser has said a degree of herd immunity will help the UK population as Covid-19 spreads.

Sir Patrick Vallance acknowledged there are fears that clamping down too hard on the spread of the virus through tight social distancing measures could see it return in the future.

He said the aim is to “reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission”.

Herd immunity is when enough people become resistant to a disease – through vaccination or previous exposure – that it can no longer significantly spread among the rest of the population.

With no vaccine available for Covid-19, herd immunity relies on enough people in the population becoming infected to lessen the impact of the disease.

...

Professor Beate Kampmann, director of the vaccine centre at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the Government appears to be carrying out a two-pronged approach.

She said cocooning means that a “ring of immune people” protect the vulnerable people in the middle.

“If you cocoon the elderly and you increase herd immunity, then the spread of the virus in the community in a few months is going to be lower,” she said."

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/03/13/coronavirus-what-is-herd-immunity/

[TomBAvoider]

Something insane just happened. I wish I was joking. My wife and I thought it would be a good idea to do our weekend shopping today, Friday morning before folks came back from work and lines started forming. So we went to TJ's as usual... and insanity! There were no carts as the store was packed, and lines snaking all over the store. There were empty shelves for a lot of items - no nuts, dry fruit, canned goods, etc., but we managed to buy a little bit extra yoghurt, milk, frozen berries etc. than we usually do. No sooner did we get home, when there was a knock on the door. One of the neighbors from across the street was at the door - we are slightly friendly because she has a roaming cat that likes to come into our yard. Anyway... very sad situation: she's been let go from her freelance gig. She has no savings. She wanted to borrow some money. We don't keep cash at home, but we offered the groceries we just purchased as we figured out what to do. She was fine with the groceries, and will be back in the evening. We can pull out some $ from the bank, but... this is not a long term solution! I called an old friend who lives not far away, just to talk things over, and he informed me that they have heard similar stories and is prepared: he and his wife will not open the door to anyone knocking! LOL! What The F***!! Folks this is like a Marx Brothers routine... seriously, it's like a movie! The pandemic has barely started and you're already seeing hoarding, panic buying and weird behavior! I mean, is this all it takes for all social norms to collapse? 

Yet again we see that civilization is just a very thin surface veneer on society, liable to collapse much faster than anyone could've suspected! I'm frankly astounded...

[Ron Put]

3 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

...

Yet again we see that civilization is just a very thin surface veneer on society, liable to collapse much faster than anyone could've suspected! I'm frankly astounded...

Yep, on the money. Went to pick up bananas and a few other things today at the local Whole Foods and found tons of empty shelves. No bananas..., people are stocking up!

They said that it will be largely restocked tomorrow, but I guess it shows that it's true that each country has about five percent of the population which drives advances and the economy, and the rest is just breeders with mouths to feed.... If I was religious, I'd say that COVID-19 is divine retribution upon the gluttonous and we should root for the virus....

Edited March 14, 2020 by Ron Put

[BrianA]

The Sudden Economic Stop

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/the-sudden-economic-stop.html

 

Coronavirus: some recovered patients may have reduced lung function and are left gasping for air while walking briskly, Hong Kong doctors find

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074988/coronavirus-some-recovered-patients-may-have

 

South Korea’s coronavirus response is the opposite of China and Italy – and it’s working

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

[Sibiriak]

13 hours ago, mccoy said:

since those deaths will mainly be old, sick people (those who get pneumonia more easily), then it will be some sort of natural selection, the survival of the fittest

 

The Telegraph-- Business

Quote

'Not to put too fine a point on it, from an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the COVID-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/03/does-fed-know-something-rest-us-do-not-panicked-interest-rate/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

Edited March 14, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Shezian]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/doctors-push-treatment-coronavirus-blood-recovered-patients-n1158476

[Sibiriak]

The Chinese have for some time been attempting treatment of coronavirus cases with processed plasma from recovered patients' blood.   (I recall they were assisting Italian doctors in that regard,  but I need to confirm that.)

China Urges Recovered Coronavirus Patients to Donate Blood to Help Cure Others  Feb. 15, 2020
 

Quote

[...] “Those who are recovering, kindly extend your arms, donate your precious blood, let’s work together to save those still struggling against the devil of disease,” the head of Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital was quoted as saying by China’s official Xinhua news agency on Thursday.

“Those who have recovered possess a considerable amount of neutralizing antibodies in their bodies, which can fight against the new coronavirus,” Zhang Dingyu, the hospital director, announced at a news conference, according to Xinhua. A neutralizing antibody is part of the body's response to an infection. Their creation can be triggered by the arrival of a foreign body such as a virus in the body, or by vaccinations.  “After an infection, it can take some time for the host to produce highly effective neutralizing antibodies but these persist to protect against future encounters with the agent,” researchers say.  

Given that no vaccine or specially designated drugs are currently available, processed plasma from recovered patients’ blood could help those in critical condition, Xinhua reported.

[Sibiriak]

California:

Testing Shortages Force Extreme Shift In Strategy By Local Health Officials   (March 13)
 

Quote

Public health officials in California’s state capital region announced this week they have stopped tracing the contacts of patients diagnosed with the novel coronavirus. They’ve also ceased recommending quarantines for residents exposed to people confirmed to have the virus.

[...] “The reason we have to move on is because testing did not occur. We’re still able to do about 20 tests a day,” said Dr. Peter Beilenson, director of Sacramento County’s Department of Health Services. “If you really wanted to quarantine and contain the situation, you would have wanted to know who was positive and quarantine them. Because we never had the tests, it’s kind of a moot point, and the horse is out of the barn.”

Sacramento County — which as of Friday had 17 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including one death — instead has begun advising residents to use so-called social distancing measures as a primary response. That includes asking people and businesses to cancel large gatherings, warning older people and those with chronic conditions to avoid crowds, and begging the general public to practice good hygiene.

The move is part of a shift from containment — where the goal is to track every case of the disease and end its spread — to mitigation, which focuses on protecting the most vulnerable from the effects of a disease that is already widespread throughout the community. County residents with any sort of illness are being asked to self-isolate until several days after symptoms resolve.

“Our goal is to be much more surgical in our approach to prevent the spread to seniors,” Beilenson said.

Sacramento County’s difficult decision to change course comes even as the director-general of the World Health Organization has said that it’s “wrong and dangerous” for countries to shift from containment to mitigation at this point in the pandemic. “Countries that decide to give up on fundamental public health measures may end up with a larger problem, and a heavier burden on the health system that requires more severe measures to control,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The U.S. has not made that shift as a whole, but experts say it’s concerning that some areas of the country have had to move away from the basic public health protocols of contact tracing and quarantine in response to the federal government’s botched rollout of coronavirus test kits.

[...] King County in Washington state, which has been an early epicenter for the virus in the U.S., shifted from contact tracing as well, but still requires a 14-day quarantine for people who were exposed to someone with the virus. Yolo and Placer counties in California also have shifted to a mitigation approach, though the details vary.   ETC.

 

Quote

[...] Containment requires both testing to find out who has the virus, and the manpower to follow up on the results — and state and local public health departments lack sufficient resources for both, said Dr. Cyrus Shahpar, former team lead of the global rapid response team at the CDC.

In Wuhan, China, for example, 1,800 teams of epidemiologists, each made of up of five people, traced tens of thousands of contacts each day. “We would never be able to do that. Contact tracing is very resource-intensive,” said Shahpar. “It’s not like public health departments have 50 standby teams to do this.”

[...] Without the ability to test, it’s hard to know if we’re abandoning containment strategies too soon, said Alan Melnick, health officer for Clark County, Washington.  ETC.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Sibiriak