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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

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7 minutes ago, Todd Allen said:

You probably believe in resurrection but the number of dead is not dropping....

Huh?!!

Signs of hope in Italy as daily death toll falls again

And, I guess my questions above won't be answered.... Just a reminder: If WHO's argument is that we do nothing about the flu because it spreads too easily, but that we should follow the China containment model for Covid-19, because it doesn't spread easily, and if that argument is based on a false premise (because the fact is that that Covid-19 is even more transmissible than the flu), what is the logic behind arguing that we should still follow the China model?

Edited by Ron Put

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3 minutes ago, Ron Put said:

Huh?!!

Signs of hope in Italy as daily death toll falls again

And, I guess my questions above won't be answered....

You have confused death rates with the number of dead.  Despite a slowing of the death rate the number of dead is increasing.  The death rate is currently a noisy signal.  It is down from its peak but it is up by nearly 20% from yesterday.

Don't take the lack of answers personally, most of Fernando Gabriel's questions don't get answered either.

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40 minutes ago, Todd Allen said:

You have confused death rates with the number of dead.  Despite a slowing of the death rate the number of dead is increasing. ...

Silly me.... I guess I was confused by this: "The number of daily coronavirus deaths in Italy fell to the lowest level in more than a week, as the head of the country's National Health Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, said...."

But your reading comprehension is obviously so much better than mine and you insist that they mean the "death rate." As you insist that we should shut down the economy and impose martial law based on just such "noisy signals."
 

40 minutes ago, Todd Allen said:

Don't take the lack of answers personally, most of Fernando Gabriel's questions don't get answered either.

Tushe! :D

Let me try again:


"By making a distinction between the viruses, Tedros has sought to rally global action against the new microbe. He and other WHO officials urged governments confronting the coronavirus to implement the public health measures that have been shown to reduce viral spread, such as isolating infected people, following those who come in contact with cases to see whether they develop illness, and suspending activities that bring together lots of people.

“We don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu — it’s just not possible,” Tedros said. “But it is possible for Covid-19. We don’t do contact-tracing for seasonal flu — but countries should do it for Covid-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.”

Tedros said, “We have never seen before a respiratory pathogen that’s capable of community transmission but at the same time which can also be contained with the right measures. If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.”...

People should try to protect themselves individually from flu strains, said Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s emergencies program, but at a societal and global level, “we don’t necessarily attempt to contain or stop them because we fundamentally believe they will spread unabated.”...
 
[P]eople who have been infected with influenza but are not yet showing symptoms drive a lot of the spread of that virus. WHO officials have said that, based on data from China’s outbreak, only a tiny fraction of infected people do not show symptoms and that they do not seem to be accounting for much transmission."

OK, this is the argument made by Tedros for why we should all implement lock-downs, which was adopted by the Right in Italy and the Left in the US to clobber their respective opposition.

I guess if someone has difficulties seeing the glaring factual and logical problems in the above excerpt, it's really too much to ask of them to differentiate between my question and Fernando's.

Kind of goes with believing the headline that 230,000 centenarians are missing in Japan.... (I couldn't resist, the parallels are just too obvious :)

 
Edited by Ron Put

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10 minutes ago, Ron Put said:

But your reading comprehension is obviously so much better than mine and you insist that they mean the "death rate."

I was commenting on your words which I quoted exactly as written, thus my incomprehension.  https://www.crsociety.org/topic/17223-just-curious-anyone-have-a-plan-or-preps-for-global-pandemic/?do=findComment&comment=35076

 

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50 minutes ago, Ron Put said:

I guess if someone has difficulties seeing the glaring factual and logical problems in the above excerpt, it's really too much to ask of them to differentiate between my question and Fernando's.

Yes.

I don't see glaring factual or logical problems in your excerpt.  Tedros and I see covid-19 as fundamentally different from seasonal flu.  Covid-19 is a single virus with a high degree of novelty while seasonal flu is a collection of many viruses that have been in circulation.  Mutations among the seasonal flu viruses can generate modest novelty but it is very rare for one to come along with all three of these important factors:  very little preexisting immunity such that a large percentage of the population could develop a major infection, highly infectious in the absence of measures to limit the spread and high morbidity and mortality.  Covid-19 appears to possess all of those traits.  We can't yet put concrete numbers on those traits making it hard to know for certain its ultimate lethality but it has shown it has the potential to explode into a disaster if we sit back and wait until we have all of the answers.  My guess is there will be countries that are too large and too poor to take effective counter measures, Pakistan strikes me as a high risk example, that will in hindsight let us know if we dodged a bullet or dodged something much worse.  And it remains to be seen to what degree we will dodge it.  The measures we are taking are difficult to sustain and are unlikely to achieve China's degree of containment.

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UK

Quote

The latest report into patients admitted into critical care so far from the  [UK] intensive care national audit and research centre (IANARC), showed 2,621 admissions up to 3 April, most of whom are still there.

The mean age was 60 and 73% of them were men. More than 35% of them were overweight, with a body mass index (BMI) between 25 and 30, and 37% were obese.

 

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