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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

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Buyers in Texas are offering as little as $2 a barrel for some oil streams, raising the possibility that producers may soon have to pay to have crude taken off their hands.

 

 

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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So, despite the media hysteria, the preliminary excess mortality in the US hasn't exceeded even 2017-2018 (it's in fact lower so far than the last 3-year average).

I looked up the weekly excess mortality graphs for Europe and it looks not all that different than previous years -- as you can see the spike is commensurate with the spikes for earlier flu seasons, except that the current spike is within a narrower time span (less excess deaths).  One explanation for the high mortality in Italy was that the flu season was extraordinarily mild there, resulting in close to 50% less flu deaths than usual, which means that an excess of vulnerable people survived the flu and were left susceptible to Covid-19. The much lower mortality earlier in this season is clearly seen in the graphs:


875225849_ScreenShot2020-04-20at10_54_08.thumb.png.f62472ea739883a824c55c0da537e5e7.png

http://www.euromomo.eu/

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image.png.a9bf90d9b08e2b9dfabb1fd9c0e3362b.png

"Flatten these curves:  US. Debt,  U.S. Unemployment,  U.S. Mass Hysteria"   😈

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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This is getting surreal!!!

image.png.2762c3034459d2c93107fc333a96577f.png

Honestly I thought it might happen, but it still seems insane to me anyway.  They will PAY YOU TO TAKE THE OIL NOW!  There is no where to put it and they can't slow production enough.  Tankers are full.  Strategic reserves are full.  This is EPIC.  That said, it looks like the price will jump back to $20 on Wednesday, it's only the front contract that crashed so badly.  I guess traders are still relatively optimistic that this is a short term problem that will resolve soon.  I don't know if I buy that however.  It will be interesting to see if it happens again with the new contract.

Edited by Gordo

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Well, this is serious damage to the oil sector, but I wonder what this will do to the overall stock market - it's been pretty bubbly and optimistic these last couple of weeks, I wonder if the penny drops. I guess it all depends on the timing of when the economy re-opens. So far the market has been voting "soon" or "very soon". But I imange that if there is extremely extensive sector damage, it might spread to other parts of the economy. Tons of businesses in the retail, restaurant, hospitality and airline industries will never recover. Virgin Air is on the verge of bankruptcy and so are many others. Sure it's all "sector" damage, but if too many sectors get damaged, the rot will spread and infect the rest of the economy, and the stock market will reflect that. This might be an inflection point. Buckle up! 

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22 hours ago, Ron Put said:

On a lighter note, today is Orthodox Easter, so I friend sent me the morning briefing by Luzhkov (Moscow's mayor):

"Good morning! Overnight, there were:

101 new infections; 
3 deaths.
1 resurrection.

Any questions?"

😉

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18 hours ago, Thomas G said:

Dr. Greger's webinar on the pandemic he mentioned we have never made a vaccine against a coronavirus, and we don't know if one is even possible. Maybe it won't be. If that is the c

I'd ignore "wisdom" from Dr. Greger.

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NYU professor rips colleges for being 'drunk on exclusivity,' says coronavirus will force change

I hope he's right.  I've always thought its long overdue that we have high quality, low cost, online universities.  Should not be too hard to find the best professors/teachers and have them create easily scalable content (you already see this trend via YouTube channels reaching millions with their expertise and solid teaching skills).  We might have to come up with new ways for high school grads to attend loud sporting events, socialize and party though 😉

Google and Apple no longer even require college degrees.  For many career paths, a college degree is worthless to an employer, in many cases it would make more sense to just go straight from high school to a real world job where you will learn real world skills and can take online courses in your free time if you want.

 
Edited by Gordo

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6 hours ago, Saul said:

I'd ignore "wisdom" from Dr. Greger.

I wouldn't be so quick to say that Saul. He did spend the first half of his career in the infectious disease world and has actually written a book on the topic of surviving a pandemic. One might also say he was ahead of his time as he was warning us about possible pandemic(s) way back in 2008 (see the video below). It is remarkable to think how the consumption of animals has contributed to the problem we find ourselves in. 

 

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This startup is trying to create external synthetic human immune system lymph nodes, expose them to various virus types to generate a ready supply of antibodies to be given to people as a therapeutic in lieu of a vaccine.

 

Prellis Biologics: Building an Externalized Immune System

Prellis Biologics: Building an Externalized Immune System

 

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Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

 

Very interesting study BrianA ( regarding the different virus variants, mutation rate, and potential virulence / CFR) the most novel of our recent posts and if confirmed the  biggest game changer in implications so far.  

Mike - this is tricky stuff, and one of the greatest challenges- estimates for our models make all the difference - garbage in, garbage out.  Thanks for the link.

Drewab- though agree ( Saul) that greger info sadly suspect, I would not throw out the baby with the bathwater as he also brings in literature sometimes that is easy to miss - I just make sure to review the sources myself though this should always be the rule anyway.  I do like his raising awareness of impact of factory farming at multiple levels - he means well and is doing mostly good.  Was not aware of his ID background, thanks for the link.

Gordo, Tom, Sibiriak, Dean, McCoy, Ron :  I think we have consensus that opening in stages may be needed - the devil is in the details when/how WRT testing readiness.  This was  recently touched upon in this video interview @ Harvard CME  ( their stuff is easily accessible to general public):

https://postgraduateeducation.hms.harvard.edu/continuing-education/covid-19-resources-providers#April 16

( see for others: https://postgraduateeducation.hms.harvard.edu/continuing-education/covid-19-resources-providers )

 

misc of interest:


##Risk factors in Wuhan inpatients:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152876/

With the possible exception of age ( and even here I suspect biological age to trump chronological age, high correlation notwithstanding), I expect most CRSoc members to fare well.

Edited by Mechanism

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Mike - this is tricky stuff, and one of the greatest challenges- estimates for our models make all the difference - garbage in, garbage out.
 

All the more trickier due to a failed nations response. Make a America Great Again!

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12 hours ago, drewab said:

I wouldn't be so quick to say that Saul. He did spend the first half of his career in the infectious disease world and has actually written a book on the topic of surviving a pandemic. One might also say he was ahead of his time as he was warning us about possible pandemic(s) way back in 2008 (see the video below). It is remarkable to think how the consumption of animals has contributed to the problem we find ourselves in. 

 

Thank you, this was brilliant. And if this isn’t a call to humanity to stop eating animals including fish then I don’t know what is. But since people are too stupid and greedy to listen or change behavior, we’ll have to create a new military arm, like a Bio Force.

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Here's an article on how California is managing to handle the CV crisis so well comparatively speaking, partly due to their experience with disasters in general (earthquakes, wild fires, mudslides etc.), and partly due to other factors:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-california-gavin-newsom/610006/

However, what I found fascinating is the economic picture - the cost of CV so far is about $7 billion, and it's being paid out of the budget surplusses and rainy day funds built up over the last few years by the Democratic governor Brown - unlike the Republican preference to immediatly get rid of surplusses through tax cuts and then run deficits like Bush II did after Clinton's surpluses, at least we had a rainy day fund. Now this is where it gets interesting - despite being in such a relatively good place insofar as the budget to date is, the longer term picture is pretty catastrophic - here's the relevant quote:

He has pegged the cost of the state’s initial virus response at $7 billion and counting, and so far, it has managed to finance its actions out of the large budget surplus built up over the tenure of his predecessor Brown. “The reserves are there, and they’re obviously incredibly important,” he said. “I think the greatest struggle we all have is the unknown,” he added. He noted that next year’s projected state budget—due out soon—will be grim. “I can just say this: We are modeling over the next three years some jaw-dropping deficits that we’ll be making public, and unemployment rates the likes of which we’ve never seen in our lifetime. The economic picture is not rosy, and incredibly sobering …

So if this is the picture for California that has managed to pay for this out of its own pocket instead of putting it on a credit card like the Feds are doing, and yet the future budgets look devastating, then what can we conclude about how the national budget will look like and national finances? Of course one crucial difference is that CA cannot print its own money, and the Feds can just print more money whenever they need, but at some point investors lose confidence that you can make good on all that printed paper, and when that is gone, I don't want to even think about the hole we'll find ourselves in given how incapable the federal government is of living within its means - when you still want to run deficits but nobody wants to finance them, then what? Cutting more taxes - the eternal Republican prescription for anything including the common cold - is not going to do jack for us, what then?

Bad as California's situation is, what does that say about the national economy in the coming years? This virus not only damaged a fragile economy, but exposed the rotten foundation and severe flaws. What's the way forward?

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4 hours ago, Mechanism said:

Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

Interesting.  But it's all anecdotal and small -- larger studies may partially validate the claimed result -- or may not.

  --  Saul

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Here is some info from the horse's mouth - why is Sweden doing what it is doing - a 15 minute interview with a Swedish epidemiologist, plus some background:

Swedish Expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy

The guy is pretty blunt, but we'll have to see what the long term comparison looks like.

Meanwhile a different Swedish epidemiologist is even more blunt in this text interview in Nature:

‘Closing borders is ridiculous’: the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy

Edited by TomBAvoider

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Given that some states in the US are starting to open up businesses, including some dine-in restaurants believe it or not (in Georgia), it is helpful to consider just how safe one might be in such a setting.

Here is an interesting and not-very-reassuring paper [1] from China showing how one asymptomatic covid patient transmitted the virus to other diners sitting a fair distance away at other tables. Below is the diagram from the paper, showing the one infected person (yellow circle) and the other diners that they transmitted the virus to (red circles):

Screenshot_20200421-161124_Chrome.jpg

Airflow was going from right to left due to an air conditioner on the right and an exhaust fan on the left. Nevertheless two people (C1 and C2) were infected despite being  seated upwind and quite a distance away from the index patient (well over six feet).

I don't think I'll be eating at a sit-down restaurant anytime soon even if/when our governor allows them to open providing they can increase distance between tables to more than six feet.

--Dean

----------

[1] Lu J, Gu J, Li K, Xu C, Su W, Lai Z, et al. COVID-19 outbreak associated with air conditioning in restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul [date cited]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200764

Abstract

During January 26–February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in an air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China, involved 3 family clusters. The airflow direction was consistent with droplet transmission. To prevent the spread of the virus in restaurants, we recommend increasing the distance between tables and improving ventilation.

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