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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

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Hi Matt!

Just today, the WHO released a statement that asymptomatic individuals -- even if unknowingly infected -- are poor at transmitting the disease.  I heard a statement from a prominent physician at NYU, Dr. Segal,  interpreting the WHO statement:  Dr. Segal notes that people who are actively sick with the disease cough and sneeze -- which makes transmission easy -- but that asymptomatic carriers obviously produce less droplets.  Dr. Segal noted that the massive lockdowns that have occurred worldwide probably have been excessive, causing more damage to the world economy than prudent.

  --  Saul

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14 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”.  And yet there is a clear history of cyclicality of valuations. 

Sure, there's a clear history of cyclicality of valuations, and what goes up must come down and the laws of gravity (and economics) still apply. We all know this. But while that's a famous quote from Irving Fisher, there's an even more famous quote from Keynes, and it has the additional advantage of being true: “"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." So yeah, we know it's irrational and we know a correction is coming... but when? Probably longer than you can hold out betting against the irrationality of the market :)... that's why shorting has been going out of fashion and is almost extinct despite crazy valuations - even if you are right, and a given stock is a travesty, it can still hold on longer than your short... as the history of many famous shorts shows. The same for shorting the market. Now, you could choose not to short, just to step out altogether, but then you can miss out more on the irrational highs compared to the brief decline. That's the secret behind Buffett's always staying in. Or more cynically, why most "investing" these days is momentum investing. 

I remember back in the day how AMZN was analyzed according to classical investing principles and very distinguished analysts were proving 10 ways to Sunday that AMZN is insanely overvalued, and in fact, given how it's expanding expenses with non-existent or tiny profits they thought AMZN was going bankrupt any second - so time and again folks would go big into shorting AMZN... that was back in the 90's... and those folks lost their shirts (and shorts!) - and here we are today and AMZN is flying higher than ever. How long has it been - over 20 years. Are you sure you wanna bet against AMZN today, no matter how overvalued you think it is? In good markets, and bad markets (COVID-19 market), AMZN just keeps flying... maybe, to modify Fisher's dictum “AMZN price has reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”. So, is it coming down? And if you think it is, are you betting on it? Everything looks different once you put your money on the table :)... It reminds me of the Mike Tyson wise observation: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" 🙂

Honestly, I found investing in the market so stressful and unpredictable that I pulled everything out for my own sanity. Instead, I concentrate on real estate and some art. I'm better off for it!

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The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hsiang S, Allen D, Annan-Phan S, Bell K, Bolliger I, Chong T, Druckenmiller H, Huang LY, Hultgren A, Krasovich E, Lau P, Lee J, Rolf E, Tseng J, Wu T.
Nature. 2020 Jun 8. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8. Online ahead of print.
PMID: 32512578
Abstract
Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic1 with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society, but their benefits cannot be directly observed and are currently understood only through process-based simulations2-4. Here, we compile new data on 1,717 local, regional, and national non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, and the United States (US). We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth5,6, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 38% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies have significantly and substantially slowed this growth. Some policies have different impacts on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages now deployed are achieving large, beneficial, and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections. These findings may help inform whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified, or lifted, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported7.

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2 hours ago, Annik said:

Honestly, I found investing in the market so stressful and unpredictable that I pulled everything out for my own sanity. Instead, I concentrate on real estate and some art. I'm better off for it!

Long term it has been a great thing. I started investing in my twenties. Put both children through college and I’m quite comfortable financially. Long term and diversity are the keys. 

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7 hours ago, Annik said:

Honestly, I found investing in the market so stressful and unpredictable that I pulled everything out for my own sanity. Instead, I concentrate on real estate and some art. I'm better off for it!

You must not be doing it right, see the current front page of marketwatch.com:

5FDF3184-C790-4A65-AB34-34E9448B32E7.jpeg.e637a75a1bf7902e20a4e85a7e753450.jpeg

Haha, this made me laugh today...

And from CNBC today: The hot new thing to make your stock pop: Go bankrupt
More classic headlines!  Need to save this to write some history later, haha.

Edited by Gordo

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Fauci doubles down:  

Fauci says coronavirus his 'worst nightmare' and far from over

The country's top infectious disease doctor, Anthony Fauci, on Tuesday said the novel coronavirus is his "worst nightmare" and warned that it is far from over.  "We're still at the beginning of it."

 

On a personal note, my wife became very ill over the weekend.  I won't share the details, but it really freaked me out.  Today she got tested for Covid-19, but even after all this time, they still told her 2-4 day wait for results (shouldn't they have rapid tests in every state by now?). She is quarantined within the house and I'm not running the air conditioner so I don't circulate that air all over the house.  Hope the test result gets here fast, its getting hot, haha.  She has improved in the last day though, she'll be fine either way.

 

 
The country's top infectious disease doctor, Anthony Fauci, on Tuesday said the novel coronavirus is his "worst nightmare" and warned that it is far from over.
Edited by Gordo

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Sorry to hear that, Gordo, hope she gets well soon. How'd she get exposed (if indeed it's CV-19!)? My wife is lucky in that she's been working from home since March, and I'm home too these days, so we're kinda "isolating" frankly - not even meeting with friends! But of course we still do things like go grocery shopping (though not more than once every couple of weeks). 

As to tests - honestly, I don't trust any of 'em, the rate of false positives and negatives is so high, I figure it's pretty much useless... but maybe the tests have gotten better? IDK. 

Of course, with this thing around, now every time anyone gets sick, it's the first thought. By the by I've been reading about how this virus must have come to California repeatedly, so who knows.

Anyhow, wishing your wife the best and hope she gets well soon!

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Gordo,

Sorry to hear about your wife. Send her my best wishes for a quick recovery. I know you have an oximeter. How is her blood oxygen? Also, how is her sense of smell? Loss of that seems to be one of the most frequent symptoms of covid-19.

--Dean

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8 hours ago, Gordo said:

On a personal note, my wife became very ill over the weekend.

Hi Gordo.

.My sympathies for your wife -- I hope she has a rapid recovery.

My oldest daughter (30's), her husband and my two grandkids (4 and 1) all had Covid 19 -- they're all in an apartment in Manhattan.  They were all tested, confirming it.  They all recovered.  They'll be visiting us here in the much friendlier environment of Rochester in July.

  --  Saul

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016508520347272
 

according to this calcium supplements may save one from a bad covid 19 experience. The fat connection is also of interest.

Maintenance of a normal serum calcium (e.g. by giving oral over the counter calcium carbonate), and normal serum albumin early during COVID-19 infection, may prevent the disease from becoming severe.

 

What you need to know:

 

Background and context: While most COVID-19 patients clear the infection, some develop severe disease with organ failure. Based on patterns associated with severe COVID-19, underlying mechanisms, we propose a simple, low risk supportive intervention.

 

New Findings: Unsaturated fat intake is associated with increased mortality from COVID-19. Unsaturated fatty acids cause injury, organ failure resembling COVID-19. Early albumin and calcium can bind unsaturated fatty acids, reduce injury.

 

Limitations: We do not have a clinical trial to support that “keeping a normal serum calcium and albumin all through COVID-19” improved mortality. Such a trial may be helpful in the future.

 

Impact: Both calcium and albumin are inexpensive, and easily available. If supplemented early during COVID-19 hospitalization, these may reduce organ failure and ICU requirements despite a lack of proven anti-viral therapies

Edited by Mike41

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4 hours ago, Dean Pomerleau said:

Gordo,

Sorry to hear about your wife. Send her my best wishes for a quick recovery. I know you have an oximeter. How is her blood oxygen? Also, how is her sense of smell? Loss of that seems to be one of the most frequent symptoms of covid-19.

--Dean

No loss of sense of smell or taste.

O2 at 74% not looking good though, this reading was from this morning:

MaliaO2Reading06102020.jpg.b2ef5bde9f710bc4f1aaf0fa9b1bdb9d.jpg

Not sure how well established the theory is yet, but she also has the "higher risk" 'A' blood type.

People can have a pretty wide range of symptoms from COVID-19, the first sign was me waking up to hearing her calling me, then I found her collapsed on the bathroom floor unable to move.  She had nausea and vomiting, chills but no fever, and extreme fatigue.  She pretty much slept all weekend (which is probably the best way to recover).  She had major loss of appetite, but I gave her some food and water and the supplements zinc, allicin (garlic extract), and green tea extract. 

All of her symptoms are listed as "possible symptoms of COVID-19" but they are also symptoms from probably 1000 other things as well (like the regular seasonal flu, or possibly even food borne illness) except maybe the low O2 readings.  But she is youngish (40s) and was pretty healthy before this, so I'm sure she will be fine.  She is improving and able to function pretty well now already, definitely on the mend.

As to how she may have gotten it (whatever 'it' may be), we have actually been quite careful, probably far more-so than the average Americans, but she has gone to the post office a couple times and grocery stores once a week (wearing masks).  There were two recent incidents where people approached her outside, neither wearing masks, and were talking to her for a couple of minutes, and she also went to the kids' school to drop off and pick up things, they staggered the times when people were supposed to enter the school but that may not have been enough considering it can linger in the air for quite a while.

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3
17 minutes ago, Gordo said:

...the first sign was me waking up to hearing her calling me, then I found her collapsed on the bathroom floor unable to move.  She had nausea and vomiting, chills but no fever, and extreme fatigue.  She pretty much slept all weekend (which is probably the best way to recover).  She had major loss of appetite, but I gave her some food and water and the supplements zinc, allicin (garlic extract), and green tea extract. 

All of her symptoms are listed as "possible symptoms of COVID-19" but they are also symptoms from probably 1000 other things as well (like the regular seasonal flu, or possibly even food borne illness) except maybe the low O2 readings.  But she is youngish (40s) and was pretty healthy before this, so I'm sure she will be fine.  She is improving and able to function pretty well now already, definitely on the mend....

Gordo, I am sorry to hear that your wife was unwell. For what it's worth, the symptoms you describe have been popping up among a few friends and acquaintances, and most blamed severe food poisoning, but as I now have heard at least five cases of "nausea and vomiting, and extreme fatigue" in the past two weeks, my guess is that it's something else making the rounds.

I too felt extreme nausea last week, threw up in the middle of the night and it took me about two days to be able to do basic exercise. I attributed it to something I ate since I was out with friends.  But it seems like a pattern is forming and they're can't be so much bad food around :)

Glad your wife is on the mend.

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Yea, it will be interesting to see what the covid test result is although I'm already skeptical about that result since I asked her "did they shove that swab deep into your nose?" and she said "no, they asked me to do it myself" so I said "OK, did you shove that thing in deep?" and she says "No, they said it only had to be an inch" (she is terrible at estimating everything, haha).  Maybe this is a dual purpose way of protecting healthcare workers AND bringing the reported new case counts down 😉

Edited by Gordo

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Gordo, I don't know if you saw my post, but apparently vitamin K2 can be helpful and selenium too - if you guys think that's legit, perhaps that's another thing to take in addition to zinc, green tea and allicin extracts. The vitamin D3 evidence is equivocal, but some sun exposure probably won't hurt. It may be hard to take in F&V when she's experiencing nausea, so perhaps a vit. C might be helpful. 

FWIW, I have a friend who is absolutely certain they had CV-19, because they had all the classic symptoms including loss of smell and taste (and they didn't even know that loss was a symptom - so it wasn't psychological!). Well, they were tested and the test came back as negative... so much for the test. I am pretty sceptical of these tests regardless of how they're taken.

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Gordo,

That blood oxygen level looks pretty troubling. I presume you took it a couple times to double check. Did you communicate that reading to her PCP?

Here is a covid-19 clinical evaluation protocol that suggests blood oxygen levels < 90% warrant a visit to the emergency department for evaluation:

In-person evaluation for moderate/severe dyspnea, hypoxia, and concern for higher acuity level — All patients with moderate or severe dyspnea, an initial oxygen saturation <95 percent on room air, or symptoms consistent with higher acuity level warrant in-person evaluation, either in the ED or in an outpatient clinic, depending upon the severity of findings.

Criteria for evaluation in EDWe typically refer patients with one or more of the following features to the ED for further management:

●Severe dyspnea (dyspnea at rest, and interfering with the inability to speak in complete sentences) (see 'Dyspnea assessment' above)

●Oxygen saturation on room air of ≤90 percent, regardless of severity of dyspnea (see 'Oxygenation assessment' above)

●Concerning alterations in mentation (eg, confusion, change in behavior, difficulty in rousing) or other signs and symptoms of hypoperfusion or hypoxia (eg, falls, hypotension, cyanosis, anuria, chest pain suggestive of acute coronary syndrome)(see 'Assessment of overall acuity level' above)

Patients meeting the above criteria will typically be admitted to the hospital for inpatient evaluation and management. 

--Dean

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1 hour ago, Dean Pomerleau said:

That blood oxygen level looks pretty troubling. I presume you took it a couple times to double check. Did you communicate that reading to her PCP?

She gets light headed just from walking up the stairs, that 74 reading was taken right after she walked up the stairs.  But after sitting still for a while and deep breathing, she reports O2 levels in the high 90's.  She also isn't having any sort of labored breathing so I'm not too worried at this point especially since she is alert and has made numerous calls today, she also drove herself to the testing yesterday.  I'm not convinced the hospitals can really do anything helpful, Remdesivir doesn't seem very impressive and going on a ventilator seems like one of the worst things you can do.

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1 hour ago, TomBAvoider said:

apparently vitamin K2 can be helpful and selenium too

I'll give that a shot, thanks.

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6 minutes ago, Gordo said:

But after sitting still for a while and deep breathing, she reports O2 levels in the high 90's. 

That is very reassuring. I too would avoid the hospital unless she takes a serious turn for the worse. Did you get any specific advice along those lines from her health care professional? 

--Dean 

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1 hour ago, TomBAvoider said:

Gordo, I don't know if you saw my post, but apparently vitamin K2 can be helpful and selenium too - if you guys think that's legit, perhaps that's another thing to take in addition to zinc, green tea and allicin extracts. The vitamin D3 evidence is equivocal, but some sun exposure probably won't hurt. It may be hard to take in F&V when she's experiencing nausea, so perhaps a vit. C might be helpful. 

FWIW, I have a friend who is absolutely certain they had CV-19, because they had all the classic symptoms including loss of smell and taste (and they didn't even know that loss was a symptom - so it wasn't psychological!). Well, they were tested and the test came back as negative... so much for the test. I am pretty sceptical of these tests regardless of how they're taken.

My oldest daughter, her husband and two kids (in Manhattan) were sick with COVID-19 like infections.  They were tested:  All had COVID-19.  All recovered.

My daughter is an MD/PhD; she knows the best tests to get.  (So does my wife -- an NP).

  --  Saul

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3 hours ago, Gordo said:

No loss of sense of smell or taste.

O2 at 74% not looking good though, this reading was from this morning:

MaliaO2Reading06102020.jpg.b2ef5bde9f710bc4f1aaf0fa9b1bdb9d.jpg

Not sure how well established the theory is yet, but she also has the "higher risk" 'A' blood type.

People can have a pretty wide range of symptoms from COVID-19, the first sign was me waking up to hearing her calling me, then I found her collapsed on the bathroom floor unable to move.  She had nausea and vomiting, chills but no fever, and extreme fatigue.  She pretty much slept all weekend (which is probably the best way to recover).  She had major loss of appetite, but I gave her some food and water and the supplements zinc, allicin (garlic extract), and green tea extract. 

All of her symptoms are listed as "possible symptoms of COVID-19" but they are also symptoms from probably 1000 other things as well (like the regular seasonal flu, or possibly even food borne illness) except maybe the low O2 readings.  But she is youngish (40s) and was pretty healthy before this, so I'm sure she will be fine.  She is improving and able to function pretty well now already, definitely on the mend.

As to how she may have gotten it (whatever 'it' may be), we have actually been quite careful, probably far more-so than the average Americans, but she has gone to the post office a couple times and grocery stores once a week (wearing masks).  There were two recent incidents where people approached her outside, neither wearing masks, and were talking to her for a couple of minutes, and she also went to the kids' school to drop off and pick up things, they staggered the times when people were supposed to enter the school but that may not have been enough considering it can linger in the air for quite a while.

Hey Gordo so sorry to hear about your wife and her sickness. Hope she recovers quickly. Your description sounds like norovirus which is pandemic this time of year in schools and it’s highly contagious. If it is it should be gone in a few days. I caught it several times as I taught in schools for over 32 years where it runs rampant.

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11 minutes ago, Mike41 said:

Hey Gordo so sorry to hear about your wife and her sickness. Hope she recovers quickly. Your description sounds like norovirus which is pandemic this time of year in schools and it’s highly contagious. If it is it should be gone in a few days. I caught it several times as I taught in schools for over 32 years where it runs rampant.

I'm also very sorry that your wife is sick.  The improvement in her O_2 is encouraging.  Good luck.

  --  Saul

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How is your wife doing now, Gordo? Hope things have improved since...  Did she get test results back to see if it's COVID?
 

 

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