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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

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Estimate of COVID-19 seroprevalence in the US suggests few in the population developed antibodies in the first wave

Researchers from Stanford University explain that patients on dialysis represent an important population to study general COVID-19 seroprevalence [because] patients on dialysis are amenable to random sampling as part of their routine care.

The study follows previous findings from recent seroprevalence studies of highly affected countries and regions (e.g. Wuhan, China, and Spain), which have shown that despite the intense strain on resources and unprecedented excess mortality, rates of seroprevalence at the population level remain low. Other seroprevalence studies of the U.S. population have been restricted to regional hotspots, such as New York City.

 researchers tested the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a randomly selected representative sample of 28,503 patients to provide a nationwide estimate of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the pandemic. 

Researchers estimated the SARS-CoV-2 standardized seroprevalence in the U.S. population to be approximately 9.3%. The authors also found significant regional variation from less than 5% in the western United States to greater than 25% in the northeast.

 

In a separate article in the Economist The covid-19 pandemic is worse than official figures show, it was noted that serosureys “can pick up antibodies against other viruses, inflating their totals—an effect which can differ from place to place, as there are more similar-looking viruses circulating in some regions than in others. They can mislead in the other direction, too. Some tests miss low levels of antibody. Some people (often young ones) fight off the virus without ever producing antibodies and will thus not be recorded as having been infected.

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20 hours ago, corybroo said:

seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies

From what I’ve read t-cell immunity may be just as important if not more so to determining population vulnerabilities. So if they were only looking at SARS-CoV-2 antibodies the study may not be that useful.

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Computer model shows how COVID-19 could lead to runaway inflammation

The study … uses computational modeling to zero in on a part of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that may act as a "superantigen," kicking the immune system into overdrive as in toxic shock syndrome

Under normal circumstances, T cells help the body fight off infection, but when these cells are activated in abnormally large quantities, as is the case with superantigens, they produce massive amounts of inflammatory cytokines

they compared [a specific region on the spike protein with superantigenic features] to a bacterial protein that causes toxic shock syndrome and found striking similarities in both sequence and structure.

 the researchers said they may have opened up new avenues for treating not only MIS-C patients, but also adults with COVID-19 infection experiencing cytokine storm.

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It is sounding like the vaccine may be a tough sell:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html

“Coronavirus vaccine trial participants report day-long exhaustion, fever and headaches — but say it's worth it”


And each new survey that comes out seems to show fewer and fewer people saying they will get the vaccine. Arg, if that’s the case this thing will very likely be here permanently, but maybe that was always in the cards... 

On a personal note, the sour economy finally caught up to me, I was part of a big layoff announcement today at the small company I’ve been working for the last 15 years (I didn’t even have kids when I started there, now I’ve got one in high school). Fun times we live in. 

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I am so sorry to hear that, Gordo. I really hope something else comes along soon.

I think the crashing of the economy through fearmongering and lockdowns, without allowing open debate on what was at best questionable data, was unconscionable. It was a political power play, mainly by the Left in the Western liberal democracies, and the wound may prove to be fatal in the long run -- liberal democracies and (relatively) open markets are historically an exception, not the norm, and we may witness the end of the era within our lifetime.

I also find it unconscionable that fear is still being spread for political purposes and that the safety of the vaccines that may be approved before the election is being publicly questioned by leading Democrats because they "don't trust Trump."

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Sorry to hear about the layoff, Gordo, hope you'll be OK. Speaking of unemployment the latest week is 837K which is slighly better than the expected 850K or last weeks 873K - BUT, c'mon, these are still record filings and they keep adding to the pool of unemployed. In such a scenario, it's hard to see how a strong recovery is sustainable in the medium term, especially that there are tons of folks out there who have been depending on stimulus and extra unemployment federal checks that have been falling off over the last two months. That is straining state budgets which are already under pressure from lower revenues due to the economy being down. Unless something happens pretty soon at the federal level, the pain might get much worse, and we can expect another crash. We're not out of the woods by a long shot:

Jobless claims: Another 837,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week

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Gordo, sorry to hear about you getting caught in the economic cross winds that have affected everyone in some way.  Hopefully things will improve soon. 

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7 hours ago, Gordo said:

It is sounding like the vaccine may be a tough sell [...]“Coronavirus vaccine trial participants report day-long exhaustion, fever and headaches — but say it's worth it”
And each new survey that comes out seems to show fewer and fewer people saying they will get the vaccine.

[...]On a personal note, the sour economy finally caught up to me, I was part of a big layoff announcement...

Sorry to hear about the layoff.  Hopefully, something good will eventually come out  of it.

In my city,  the Sputnik-V vaccine is now being made available to priority recipients (healthcare workers,  those at very high risk, et al.).  Some 5,000 people have already been vaccinated in the current clinical trial phase;  in the final trial phase  40,000 Moscow residents will be vaccinated.     I've talked to some people who feel that they are at higher risk and are anxious to get it.  Many people though are in the  "it's too early to say, let's see how it goes" camp.

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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Sorry to hear about the layoff.  Hopefully, something good will eventually come out  of it.

Right. More than once, I've heard from friends or friends of friends that a layoff was an opportunity for them to re-invent themselves and go on to bigger and better things, and in retrospect getting laid off was a blessing in disguise. Of course, that's highly conditional and it may not work out like that in all cases, and regardless it for sure is stressful at the moment when it happens - nobody likes getting laid off, and recovery is often a matter of luck to some degree. In any event, all the best to Gordo and hope it'll work itself out.

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Pain relief caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection may help explain COVID-19 spread

The finding [SARS-CoV-2 can relieve pain] may explain why nearly half of people who get COVID-19 experience few or no symptoms

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released updated data Sept. 10 estimating 50% of COVID-19 transmission occurs prior to the onset of symptoms and 40% of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic.

pain, as an early symptom of COVID-19, may be reduced by the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein as it silences the body's pain signaling pathways

they performed a series of experiments in the laboratory and in rodent models to test their hypothesis that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein acts on the VEGF-A/neuropilin pain pathway. They used VEGF-A as a trigger to induce neuron excitability, which creates pain, then added the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.

"The spike protein completely reversed the VEGF-induced pain signaling," Dr. Khanna said. "It didn't matter if we used very high doses of spike or extremely low doses—it reversed the pain completely."

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*Update, 2 October, 4:40 p.m.: The White House released a statement regarding the treatment the president has received: “Following PCR-confirmation of the President’s diagnosis, as a precautionary measure he received a single 8 gram dose of Regeneron’s polyclonal antibody cocktail. He completed the infusion without incident. In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine [Pepcid], melatonin and a daily aspirin

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In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine [Pepcid], melatonin and a daily aspirin

Pepcid, LOL. What in the world can one make of this list of randoid pills? Are all of them in response to CV-19? How does pepcid, aspirin or melatonin interact with CV-19? And if it's NOT in response to CV-19, then what is this list? Is it a list of all the medication + supplements he's taking? And if not all, then why mention just these? I find that hard to believe this is a complete list of everything he takes - no statin (which btw. is supposed to be helpful with CV-19), no BP lowering drugs or anything else? OK, whatever. As always when it comes to #45, it's a royal mess.

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54 minutes ago, TomBAvoider said:

In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine [Pepcid], melatonin and a daily aspirin

Pepcid, LOL. What in the world can one make of this list of randoid pills? Are all of them in response to CV-19? How does pepcid, aspirin or melatonin interact with CV-19? 

People taking famotidine had significantly reduced mortality as evidenced by Chinese data. I've seen several publications speculating that melatonin should be protective, and aspirin is for the obvious anti-platelet effects preventing the covid induced stroke. Doesn't seem random at all to me. I'm sure he's taking a bunch of other drugs like beta blockers, statins, etc, but this list seems specifically to be adjunctive to his covid treatment.

Edited by tea

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8 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

...melatonin interact with CV-19?

Melatonin's immunomodulatory /antiviral effects have been studied for years .  Huge literature. No surprise that there are a bunch of  new studies looking into its effectiveness against COVID-19.

Edited by Sibiriak

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9 hours ago, corybroo said:

Looking at the Johns Hopkins website https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6  leads me to ask why the US is first in number of cases, first in deaths, but third in recovered.

Because as they say, garbage in, garbage out.

But there are likely many reasons. First, Covid-19 deaths are counted differently in different locales, including within the US. As Michael Levitt and others have noted, if we counted flu and common cold deaths the same way as we count Covid-19 deaths in the US, the numbers would be much higher than the accepted estimates.

New York and New Jersey account for a disproportionately large number of US deaths and both states had ordered nursing home facilities to accept Covid-19 patients, likely significantly increasing infection rates and deaths among the most vulnerable. After repeated calls, Cuomo reversed the order in May.

The current global death toll is close to the estimated death toll from the 2017-2018 influenza season.

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Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess deaths during the covid-19 pandemic, serological surveys since the peak indicate that at most only around a fifth of people have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: 23% in New York, 18% in London, 11% in Madrid.123 Among the general population the numbers are substantially lower, with many national surveys reporting in single digits.

With public health responses around the world predicated on the assumption that the virus entered the human population with no pre-existing immunity before the pandemic,4 serosurvey data are leading many to conclude that the virus has, as Mike Ryan, WHO’s head of emergencies, put it, “a long way to burn.”

Yet a stream of studies that have documented SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in people without exposure to the virus are raising questions about just how new the pandemic virus really is, with many implications.

Not so novel coronavirus?

At least six studies have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of people with no known exposure to the virus.5678910

In a study of donor blood specimens obtained in the US between 2015 and 2018, 50% displayed various forms of T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.511 A similar study that used specimens from the Netherlands reported T cell reactivity in two of 10 people who had not been exposed to the virus.7

In Germany reactive T cells were detected in a third of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative healthy donors (23 of 68). In Singapore a team analysed specimens taken from people with no contact or personal history of SARS or covid-19; 12 of 26 specimens taken before July 2019 showed reactivity to SARS-CoV-2, as did seven of 11 from people who were seronegative against the virus.8 Reactivity was also discovered in the UK and Sweden.6910

...

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On 10/1/2020 at 4:10 PM, Gordo said:

It is sounding like the vaccine may be a tough sell:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html

“Coronavirus vaccine trial participants report day-long exhaustion, fever and headaches — but say it's worth it”


And each new survey that comes out seems to show fewer and fewer people saying they will get the vaccine. Arg, if that’s the case this thing will very likely be here permanently, but maybe that was always in the cards... 

On a personal note, the sour economy finally caught up to me, I was part of a big layoff announcement today at the small company I’ve been working for the last 15 years (I didn’t even have kids when I started there, now I’ve got one in high school). Fun times we live in. 

Hi Gordo!

as you know, I'm in Phase 3 of the Pfizer mrna vaccine study.  After the first injection, I was extremely tired.  Very unusual for me -- I've never had any reaction to any vaccine shot, not even to the shingrix vaccine, that's supposed to be painful.  I remained extremely tired for the rest of the day; and was also somewhat tired the next morning.  I shook off tiredness in the early afternoon,  after working out and showering.

The second shot had milder side effects.  According to what I was told by Dr. Walsh, in charge of the study at RGH, side effects of the Pfizer vaccine tend to be milder for older adults.   So I'm pretty sure I didn't get saline.

  --  Saul

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On 10/1/2020 at 4:10 PM, Gordo said:

It is sounding like the vaccine may be a tough sell:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html

“Coronavirus vaccine trial participants report day-long exhaustion, fever and headaches — but say it's worth it”


And each new survey that comes out seems to show fewer and fewer people saying they will get the vaccine. Arg, if that’s the case this thing will very likely be here permanently, but maybe that was always in the cards... 

On a personal note, the sour economy finally caught up to me, I was part of a big layoff announcement today at the small company I’ve been working for the last 15 years (I didn’t even have kids when I started there, now I’ve got one in high school). Fun times we live in. 

My sympathies Gordo.  Let's hope things will get better.

  --  Saul

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In the US, the current death toll from covid-19 is over 209,399 so far. 

That seems to be more than the estimate from CDC  Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season

The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths.

This is looking at the US only.  I think the official numbers already put the number of covid-19 deaths at over 3 times that of the 17-18 flu season.   

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1 hour ago, corybroo said:

This is looking at the US only.  I think the official numbers already put the number of covid-19 deaths at over 3 times that of the 17-18 flu season. 

What's the point to this?  I clearly referred to the global death toll, estimated to be between 1 and 1.2 million for the 2017-2018 season:  "The current global death toll is close to the estimated death toll from the 2017-2018 influenza season."

I also tried to address what you asked above by pointing out a few possibilities, such as Michael Levitt's point (which goes to the standards for counting Covid-19 deaths) and the elder-care facilities rules imposed in NY and NJ.

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Ron,

Where are you finding the global toll for the 2017-8 flu season?  I did a quick search last night and could find only CDC data for US which is why I compared US covid-19 deaths with US 2017-8 flu deaths.  Using US data only reduces the issues with data collection varying by locale.

After searching some more today, the best I could find was the Lancet showing 145,000 (99,000-200,000) deaths globally for 2017 only 

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl1&pii=S2213-2600(18)30496-X    

Do you have a reference for the 2017-8 toll?  Using the top number of the Lancet range (200,000) rather than the most likely number is still less than 1/5 of today’s covid-19 toll of 1,038,797.   

Your point on the elder-care facilities is well taken.  It is true that a sweeping definition of covid-19 deaths could inflate the number, but today I saw this article U.S. COVID deaths may be underestimated by 36% which performed a county level analysis and certainly implies that the number could arguably be higher.

Thanks

 

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More support for ivermectin (note that for max. effect -- presented by TrialSite News in link below -- iver. should be given in a cocktail format:  ivermectin, doxycycline  zinc and vit. D). 

Bottom line may be: It's better to get COVID in a poor country.

Also see: 

https://www.trialsitenews.com/ivermectin-could-turn-covid-19-around-we-need-to-find-out-if-it-works/

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