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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

Covid-19 Vaccine Survey  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. Your Vaccine Status is:

    • Fully vaccinated
      20
    • Partially vaccinated
      0
    • Not Vaccinated
      5
  2. 2. If not (fully) vaccinated, your reason(s) for your decision (check all that apply):

    • Not Applicable - I'm vaccinated
      19
    • The rapid vaccine development process makes me distrust them
      3
    • I'm worried about vaccine side effects
      4
    • I don't think I'm at much risk of getting a covid infection
      3
    • I don't believe a covid infection is a serious risk for someone like me
      4
    • I'm waiting until the vaccines receive final approval
      0
    • Fear of needles
      0
    • A medical condition prevents me from getting vaccines
      0
    • Bad reaction to the first dose of the covid vaccine
      0
    • I already had COVID-19 and don't think I need the vaccine for protection
      2
    • Vaccine not available where I live
      0
  3. 3. Are you OK with having your CR forum name included on a list of members who have/haven't chosen to be vaccinated?

    • Yes
      22
    • No
      3


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Quote

That's your belief.  If I was placing a bet on this my money would be on the opposite side that it is the vaccinated increasing the risk to others.  Which is why I'm not vaccinated. 

Todd Allen, you seem to be implying that people who don't suspect that they have a comorbidity should avoid being vaccinated against  COVID-19 -- because doing so would increase risk to others. Have you found any paper or scientist that has come to a similar conclusion?

The paper you linked says, "In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect." [my emphasis]

I only looked at the third one of the subsequent references from that paper, but it included:

"3. If you get infected, being vaccinated helps.

The good news is that among Israel's serious infections on Thursday of this week, according to Health Ministry data, the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among vaccinated people in that age bracket.

The bad news, doctors say, is that half of Israel's seriously ill patients who are currently hospitalized were fully vaccinated at least five months ago. Most of them are over 60 years old and have comorbidities. The seriously ill patients who are unvaccinated are mostly young, healthy people whose condition deteriorated quickly."

Instead of drawing conclusions from just 'cases per 100,000 people' (both vaccinated and unvaccinated), I think it would be preferable to draw conclusions from 'cases per 100,000 of vaccinated people' compared with cases per 100,000 of unvaccinated people. Or better yet, comparing such numbers specifically for serious cases.

Edited by Todd S

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Todd S., I completely agree.  I was about to note the same thing.  the important thing is preventing serious, or at least significant, illness.  If you're fully vaccinated and catch covid -- well, it'll probably be similar to catching a cold -- hardly likely to be a fatal disease.

  --  Saul

 

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3 hours ago, Todd S said:

Todd Allen, you seem to be implying that people who don't suspect that they have a comorbidity should avoid being vaccinated against  COVID-19 -- because doing so would increase risk to others. Have you found any paper or scientist that has come to a similar conclusion?

https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2

And here is a recent paper suggesting Geert's predictions are already coming true:

Nosocomial outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a highly vaccinated population, Israel, July 2021

Quote

The index case was a fully vaccinated haemodialysis patient in their 70s.

...

Although reports of breakthrough infections are increasing [10-12], this communication emphasises several points. It challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity and prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. This was probably true for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus, but in the outbreak described here, 96.2% of the exposed population was vaccinated. Infection advanced rapidly (many cases became symptomatic within 2 days of exposure), and viral load was high. Another accepted view is that, when facing a possible mismatch between the SARS-CoV-2 variant and vaccine or waning immunity, the combination of vaccine and face mask should provide the necessary protection. Although some transmission between staff members could have occurred without masks, all transmissions between patients and staff occurred between masked and vaccinated individuals, as experienced in an outbreak from Finland [12].

 

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11 hours ago, Gordo said:

Cite this as: BMJ 2021;375:n2414

I heard parts of this story elsewhere but I'm glad to see it in the BMJ as most places willing to jump on controversial subjects with political aspects lack the BMJ's reputation.

 

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On 10/6/2021 at 8:57 AM, Todd Allen said:

I heard parts of this story elsewhere but I'm glad to see it in the BMJ as most places willing to jump on controversial subjects with political aspects lack the BMJ's reputation.

Sadly, over the last few decades, the trend of politicizing science has been pushed mostly by the Left, with whole disciplines being corrupted as academia was taken over. The pandemic was used to go into full offensive and censor and destroy the careers of those who refuse to conform.

The damage is already done. It will be impossible now to prove that Chinese labs were responsible for the pandemic, even though it looks like the most likely scenario. China has lied, covered up, and engaged in propaganda and disinformation campaigns, using money and skillfully exploiting "useful idiots" among the Western left, business community, and media.

Does anyone remember Biden's shutting down of the belated US investigation, only to issue a stern order to the "intelligence community" to find out and report to him in two months? Then he declared the report classified and the media barely acknowledged it. It'd be laughable if it was not actually scary.
 

On 10/4/2021 at 6:34 PM, BrianA said:

Part of why some people have longer symptoms seems to be related to unusual micro-clots:

Do we have to be subjected to every fearmongering story you read on the subject of Covid? Yes, Covid is a virus, and many viruses do things like this. Nothing particularly unique. Influenza viruses do the same, among other things.

If we're fed a steady diet of similar stories about the flu, some will never leave their houses. Which might not be such a bad thing... So I don't have to see another petrified driver wearing a mask by herself.

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On 9/30/2021 at 12:56 PM, BrianA said:

twitter thread reviewing recent evidence that vaccination beats natural immunity due to prior infection, in regards to breakthrough reinfection risk

Now we are posting Twitter stories to sell vaccines?! How about Phizer scientists saying that natural immunity is probably better?

The actual science is at best unclear. Yet in New York and Los Angeles, the wacky Left is ordering every business to verify that you are vaccinated before they let you in. In Colorado, they will refuse to transplant a kidney and let you die instead. And no exceptions for the millions who have had Covid and thus may arguably have better immunity than the vaccinated. I never thought I'd see this in the US.

And now that they forced the teens to be vaccinated, they are going after those under 12. I keep hearing on NPR about all those kids in the hospitals and how we must, we must vaccinate them! So I did a quick search, and no, "the science" doesn't support it.

Covid, including Delta, is still considerably less deadly than the flu to kids. Yet the media keeps driving meaningless, but scary messages like "10x higher infections" while carefully omitting context.

Here are some charts, compare rates of hospitalization for influenza and Covid (and keep in mind that LA generally has more vulnerable population and more infections than much of the US):





 

Screen Shot 2021-09-25 at 16.17.25.png

Screen Shot 2021-10-07 at 19.10.31.png

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This article at MedicalXpress found a difference iont the memory B cells between vaccination and disease exposure.

Natural infection versus vaccination: Differences in COVID antibody responses emerge

Unlike circulating antibodies, which peak soon after vaccination or infection only to fade a few months later, memory B cells can stick around to prevent severe disease for decades. And they evolve over time, learning to produce successively more potent "memory antibodies" that are better at neutralizing the virus and more capable of adapting to variants.

Vaccination produces greater amounts of circulating antibodies than natural infection. But a new study suggests that not all memory B cells are created equal. While vaccination gives rise to memory B cells that evolve over a few weeks, natural infection births memory B cells that continue to evolve over several months, producing highly potent antibodies adept at eliminating even viral variants.

The findings highlight an advantage bestowed by natural infection rather than vaccination, but the authors caution that the benefits of stronger memory B cells do not outweigh the risk of disability and death from COVID-19.

Recent studies have suggested that within five months of receiving a vaccine or recovering from a natural infection, some of us no longer retain sufficient circulating antibodies to keep the novel coronavirus at bay, but our memory B cells stand vigilant. 

Vaccination and natural infection elicited similar numbers of memory B cells. Memory B cells rapidly evolved between the first and second dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, producing increasingly potent memory antibodies. But after two months, progress stalled. The memory B cells were present in large numbers and expressed potent antibodies, but the antibodies were not getting any stronger. Also, although some of these antibodies were able to neutralize Delta and other variants, there was no overall improvement in breadth.

With convalescent patients, on the other hand, memory B cells continued to evolve and improve up to one year after infection. More potent and more broadly neutralizing memory antibodies were coming out with every memory B cell update.

It is possible that the body responds differently to viruses that enter through the respiratory tract than those that are injected into our upper arms. Or perhaps an intact virus goads the immune system in a way that the lone spike protein represented by the vaccines simply cannot. Then again, maybe it's that the virus persists in the naturally infected for weeks, giving the body more time to mount a robust response. The vaccine, on the other hand, is flushed out of the body mere days after triggering the desired immune response.

We can expect memory B cells to undergo limited volleys of evolution in response to mRNA vaccines, a finding that may have significant implications for the design and rollout of booster shots. A booster with the currently available mRNA vaccine would be expected to engage memory cells to produce circulating antibodies that are strongly protective against the original virus and somewhat less so against the variants

When to administer the booster depends on the object of boosting," he says. "If the goal is to prevent infection, then boosting will need to be done after 6 to 18 months depending on the immune status of the individual. If the goal is to prevent serious disease boosting may not be necessary for years.

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76% of deaths in Vermont for the month of September were in the vaccinated:

https://theexpose.uk/2021/10/09/most-vaccinated-state-in-the-usa-sees-huge-surge-in-covid-19-hospitalisations/

Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut, the three states that follow right behind Vermont in terms of vaccine compliance, are all seeing a similar surge in new hospitalisations and deaths.

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11 hours ago, Todd Allen said:

76% of deaths in Vermont for the month of September were in the vaccinated:

https://theexpose.uk/2021/10/09/most-vaccinated-state-in-the-usa-sees-huge-surge-in-covid-19-hospitalisations/

Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut, the three states that follow right behind Vermont in terms of vaccine compliance, are all seeing a similar surge in new hospitalisations and deaths.

https://vtdigger.org/2021/10/08/vermont-reports-283-new-covid-cases-and-4-deaths-updates-breakthrough-and-outbreak-stats/
 

currently it’s about 2.5 times the death rate for unvaccinated when you adjust for odds ratio. Also consider virtually all 80+ persons are vaccinated and these are where the majority of deaths occur. Thus simply testing positive does not mean the vaccine was not working they had co morbidities and also happened to have the virus. In any case it a case of:

 

“LIES, DAMNED LIES AND STATITSICS”

 

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New study:

Antibody kinetics after natural SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination in Hispanic/Latino population

"The study revealed a rapid decline in anti‐S antibodies just 40 to 80 days after a boost with the mRNA vaccine. It also revealed the sustained level of neutralization ability while anti‐S antibodies were declining. This vaccination pattern is the same as the one observed following naturally acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in the study cohort.

The decline in titers was more precipitous in the unexposed group relative to their pre-exposed counterparts. The results suggest that similar quantities of antibodies generated post-natural infection were significantly better functionally natural infection precedes vaccination. Natural infection may expand B cells, thereby causing the production of more S-specific antibodies post-vaccination.

It is beyond doubt that natural infection leads to a strong and superior-quality humoral and cellular immune response. Hence, it is unclear why this is not considered in the public safety guidelines."

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211004/Antibody-kinetics-after-natural-SARS-CoV-2-infection-and-COVID-19-vaccination-in-HispanicLatino-population.aspx

 

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New study:
 
One-year sustained cellular and humoral immunities of COVID-19 convalescents
 
Results

SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies, and also NAb can persist among over 95% COVID-19 convalescents from 6 months to 12 months after disease onset. At least 19/71 (26%) of COVID-19 convalescents (double positive in ELISA and MCLIA) had detectable circulating IgM antibody against SARS-CoV-2 at 12m post-disease onset. Notably, the percentages of convalescents with positive SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses (at least one of the SARS-CoV-2 antigen S1, S2, M and N protein) were 71/76 (93%) and 67/73 (92%) at 6m and 12m, respectively. Furthermore, both antibody and T-cell memory levels of the convalescents were positively associated with their disease severity.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2-specific cellular and humoral immunities are durable at least until one year after disease onset.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab884/6381561#.YWGhCytQ_Hc

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It seems to me the issue is now is that people don't even know what the goal is anymore. Is it to completely wipe out the disease or prevent serious illness? If it's the latter, then it might be way too early to talk about a) boosters for the average "healthy" person and b) to demand people who've had COVID-19 take a vaccine. A few points:

1. Both vaccinated and previously infected can be reinfected as immunity wanes. Neither provide complete immunity from infection.

2. Both vaccinated and previously infected almost always have a very mild disease if there is a breakthrough infection or reinfection.

3. The immune system does NOT maintain sky-high antibody levels forever. After the antigen is removed, it's completely normal for antibody levels to decline but will be rapidly produced upon presentation to the immune system again. An endemic virus that now in a vaccinated/already infection population will cause mild disease in most people and the infection itself will be the "booster". People who are 'at risk' should get the vaccines. That would make more sense in a situation we are in now. Or is the goal still to completely eradicate the virus? A lot of mixed messaging going on...

I have to say, it does bother me a lot when I see health officials can't be honest about the data. I am sure it's probably something to do with a simple and straight forward public health message, but it doesn't generate a lot of trust when you have so much evidence pointing that natural immunity by itself is as good as or better than vaccines and they can't or won't actually say it (probably for fear of people wanting to catch COVID to get "naturally acquired immunity".  But IMO, they should start being honest with the public.

It's illogical that people with proven immunity via lab tests (and with all the data we now have about natural immunity) are being prevented from working and fired even from their jobs (mainly in the US and CA it seems), yet everyone is acting as if vaccinated people are not spreading the disease or can't if they have a "COVID pass". 

Anecdotal and not worth much, but I now know a LOT of people just in my local area who have been doubly vaccinated this year and have been quite sick with COVID in the past few months. Fortunately, my family are all fine and we've not caught COVID again.

See what this doctor has to say about the situation (timestamped):
 

And another video 

 

Edited by Matt
Added more information

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Revisiting this topic: 

Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization

Quote

The highest incidence of myocarditis (10.69 cases per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.93 to 14.46) was reported in male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. 

So about a 1 in 10,000 chance of myocarditis for young men getting an mRNA vaccine.  

 

Ref: Witberg G, Barda N, Hoss S, Richter I, Wiessman M, Aviv Y, Grinberg T, Auster O, Dagan N, Balicer RD, Kornowski R. Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization. N Engl J Med. 2021 Oct 6. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2110737. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 34614329.

Edited by Gordo

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18 hours ago, Matt said:

Fortunately, my family are all fine and we've not caught COVID again.

Good for you and yours.  But even if I had (I have not) survived COVID Russian roulette once, I would still like to reduce the risk of a repeat of dodging or not the bullet.

Edited by AlanPater

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14 hours ago, Matt said:

I have to say, it does bother me a lot when I see health officials can't be honest about the data. I am sure it's probably something to do with a simple and straight forward public health message, but it doesn't generate a lot of trust when you have so much evidence pointing that natural immunity by itself is as good as or better than vaccines and they can't or won't actually say it (probably for fear of people wanting to catch COVID to get "naturally acquired immunity".  But IMO, they should start being honest with the public.

Here is an article with links to many studies suggesting superiority of natural immunity:

https://brownstone.org/articles/natural-immunity-and-covid-19-twenty-nine-scientific-studies-to-share-with-employers-health-officials-and-politicians/

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4 hours ago, Todd Allen said:

The article title in the URL pretty well tells where the article is going. 

The risk of death in the acquisition of natural immunity is vastly greater than that in the acquisition of vaccine-acquired immunity.  Long-COVID effects are a risk seen only with natural acquired immunity.  There are suggestions that getting COVID might lead to "post-COVID" conditions analogous to those of post-polio syndrome.  Who likes getting sick, anyway.?

People who have had COVID are much less dangerous to the public when they have been vaccinated.

Get vaccinated.

Edited by AlanPater

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