Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[Todd Allen]

18 hours ago, mccoy said:

Ditto in Italy. In my eyes, the government health institutions have lost a lot of credibility (hypothesizing they had any in the beginning...).

At least they are not as crazy as your neighbors...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/14/europe/austria-lockdown-unvaccinated-intl/index.html

The lockdown plan which was agreed in September called for unvaccinated Austrians to face a stay-at-home order once 30% of intensive-care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Unvaccinated people are already excluded from entertainment venues, restaurants, hairdressers and other parts of public life in Austria.

[mccoy]

Todd, yes, I heard about Austria, from 12 years and above !!!! Europe is frantically trying to improve vaccination numbers, to pursue a herd immunity which seems to be a mirage...

[Mike41]

It’s been known and reported for quite some time that vaccines don’t keep one from being infected. It’s clearly understood! The virus invades the body and the immune system responds. The important point is how different is the immune response in vaccinated persons and unvaccinated persons. 

[mccoy]

10 hours ago, Mike41 said:

he important point is how different is the immune response in vaccinated persons and unvaccinated persons. 

From what I understood, in healthy people, it's just a question of the velocity of response. I'd really hate though to have myself jabbed every month or week, , because, conceptually speaking, that's what they are thinking about...

[Mike41]

8 hours ago, mccoy said:

From what I understood, in healthy people, it's just a question of the velocity of response. I'd really hate though to have myself jabbed every month or week, , because, conceptually speaking, that's what they are thinking about...

Huh???

[mccoy]

Sorry for being unclear. this is what I grasped from the expert podcast I used to listen to.

Vaccinations have the body develop antibodies against specific proteins carried by the virus (for example, the spike protein).

After a while from vaccinations, the number of antibodies drops dramatically, but the immune system saves the memory of the viral protein and will build the specific antibodies again up to sufficient number in a few days should the specific viral protein represent (viral infection).

Now, I guess the third shot has the function to keep the spike protein antibodies very high in the blood; in such a way, if the virus infects the system, people who are more frail or more susceptible to damage will have a very prompt response to the infection. Whereas other people will have to wait a few (3-5) days before the immune system has built enough antibodies to fully counteract the infection.

During these 3-5 days healthy people will probably not be affected much, developing minor symptoms usually, or no symptoms.

Bottom line: the immune system will respond anyway, and those who do not feel frail or susceptible should not be subject to a mandatory 3rd jab, in my opinion. The probability of major symptoms occurring in the first few days being very low, the probability of an overflow of hospitals will be low as well.

Of course, there will be some people walking around with an infection. But this can be true about those who had a 3rd shot as well.

To me, the imposition of a 3rd shot would constitute an overkill, something which is easy to interpret as an abuse of power. Unless it is indisputably proved that without such a shot the virus keeps spreading. But then, there will be a 4th, 5th shot and so on, how often? Every month or week?

I'm open to sensible arguments in favor of the 3rd shot.

Edited November 15, 2021 by mccoy

[Sibiriak]

5 hours ago, mccoy said:

the immune system will respond anyway, and those who do not feel frail or susceptible should not be subject to a mandatory 3rd jab,   [...] I'm open to sensible arguments in favor of the 3rd shot.

I tend to agree with that,  but I'm open to counter arguments as well.  

One concern:  how "susceptible" would one have to be,  and how can one  be sure they are not in that category?   

On the other hand,  there are reasons why the body naturally functions so that " antibodies drops dramatically, but the immune system saves the memory of the viral protein and will build the specific antibodies again up to sufficient number in a few days should the specific viral protein represent (viral infection)."

Constantly getting jabs and keeping antibodies incessantly jacked up, month after month, year after year, decade after decade, may well have negative side effects that will manifest in the long term.

Personally,  if the data shows that the vaccinations I've received are still providing strong protection against severe COVID,  hospitalization and death, even though circulating antibodies have declined,  I will be hesitant to get a booster shot.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Sibiriak

[Matt]

"It makes no sense to give boosters to healthy adults or to vaccinate children..." - Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus - Director-General.

 

 

There's also a risk here for a very bad outcome when the virus does start spreading in poor countries that have little to no immunity. A few studies have shown that vaccines that do not prevent transmission can lead to more virulent variants through selective pressure in vaccinated populations. And they are generally more pathogenic and cause more serious disease among unvaccinated/immune populations. 

 

[AlanPater]

52 minutes ago, Matt said:

"It makes no sense to give boosters to healthy adults or to vaccinate children..." - Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus - Director-General.

From a global perspective, yes.  From a personal and science perspective, no.  His views are not in the best interest of the developed world.  Things are developing in the direction of generic and locally produced vaccines, which is the direction things should go.  This was the approach for other highly infectious and pathogenic pathogens.

[AlanPater]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

There's also a risk here for a very bad outcome when the virus does start spreading in poor countries that have little to no immunity. A few studies have shown that vaccines that do not prevent transmission can lead to more virulent variants through selective pressure in vaccinated populations. And they are generally more pathogenic and cause more serious disease among unvaccinated/immune populations. 

Whether in vaccinated or unvaccinated people, the vaccine or natural immunity will select for more pathogenic variants.  But yes, eventually, getting the total number of global infections down will help counter the development of more pathogenic virus.  From a personal perspective, I will get the booster (soon).

[Saul]

On 11/15/2021 at 4:30 PM, mccoy said:

Vaccinations have the body develop antibodies against specific proteins carried by the virus (for example, the spike protein).

After a while from vaccinations, the number of antibodies drops dramatically, but the immune system saves the memory of the viral protein and will build the specific antibodies again up to sufficient number in a few days should the specific viral protein represent (viral infection).

There is no "spike protein"; the spike object on a Covid-19 virus consists of many different proteins.

"saves the memory".  You're referring to memory T cells; and yes, that's how the body keeps rapidly fighting a new infection of a pathogen, even after antibody immunity has waned (or even disappeared).  The memory T cells will recognize them, and stimulate B cells to release new antibodies to the pathogen.

[mccoy]

4 hours ago, Saul said:

There is no "spike protein";

Saul, thanks for the clarification. Maybe the 'protein' cited in the scientific talks is a group of proteins. Or is it a single protein made up by various amminoacids? It's not yes clear. In the scientific lingo, they call it often the spike protein and sometimes it seems it's a single, large one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spike_protein

In virology, a spike protein or peplomer protein is a protein that forms a large structure known as a spike or peplomer projecting from the surface of an enveloped virus.^{[2][3]: 29–33} The proteins are usually glycoproteins that form dimers or trimers.^{[3]: 29–33} Often the term "spike protein" refers specifically to the coronavirus spike protein, one of the four major structural proteins common to all coronaviruses, which gives rise to the distinctive appearance of these viruses in electron micrographs.^[4]

^...

Coronaviruses exhibit coronavirus spike protein, also known as the S protein, on their surfaces; S is a class I fusion protein and is responsible for mediating viral entry as the first step in viral infection.^[10] It evolves fast, by point mutations and by homologous recombination (its genomic region is a recombination hotspot).^[11] It is highly antigenic and accounts for most antibodies produced by the immune system in response to infection. For this reason the spike protein has been the focus of development for COVID-19 vaccines in response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2.^[12][13] A subgenus of the betacoronaviruses, known as embecoviruses (not including SARS-like coronaviruses), have an additional shorter surface protein known as hemagglutinin esterase.^[14]

[AlanPater]

Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis
BMJ 2021; 375 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-068302 (Published 18 November 2021) Cite this as: BMJ 2021;375:e068302
Stella Talic, lecturer in clinical epidemiology and public health12,  Shivangi Shah, honours student1,  Holly Wild, lecturer and honours student13,  Danijela Gasevic, senior lecturer in epidemiology and chronic disease prevention14,  Ashika Maharaj, lecturer quality and safety and cancer epidemiology1,  Zanfina Ademi, associate professor of medical outcomes and health economics12,  Xue Li, assistant professor46,  Wei Xu, research student4,  Ines Mesa-Eguiagaray, statistical geneticist4,  Jasmin Rostron, research student4,  Evropi Theodoratou, professor of cancer epidemiology and global health45,  Xiaomeng Zhang, research student4,  Ashmika Motee, research student4,  Danny Liew, professor of medical outcomes and health economics12,  Dragan Ilic, professor of medical education and public health1
Accepted 21 October 2021
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/375/bmj-2021-068302.full.pdf
Abstract
Objective To review the evidence on the effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality.
Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.
Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Biosis, Joanna Briggs, Global Health, and World Health Organization COVID-19 database (preprints).
Eligibility criteria for study selection Observational and interventional studies that assessed the effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality.
Main outcome measures The main outcome measure was incidence of covid-19. Secondary outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 transmission and covid-19 mortality.
Data synthesis DerSimonian Laird random effects meta-analysis was performed to investigate the effect of mask wearing, handwashing, and physical distancing measures on incidence of covid-19. Pooled effect estimates with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were computed, and heterogeneity among studies was assessed using Cochran’s Q test and the I2 metrics, with two tailed P values.
Results 72 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 35 evaluated individual public health measures and 37 assessed multiple public health measures as a “package of interventions.” Eight of 35 studies were included in the meta-analysis, which indicated a reduction in incidence of covid-19 associated with handwashing (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 1.12, I2=12%), mask wearing (0.47, 0.29 to 0.75, I2=84%), and physical distancing (0.75, 0.59 to 0.95, I2=87%). Owing to heterogeneity of the studies, meta-analysis was not possible for the outcomes of quarantine and isolation, universal lockdowns, and closures of borders, schools, and workplaces. The effects of these interventions were synthesised descriptively.
Conclusions This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that several personal protective and social measures, including handwashing, mask wearing, and physical distancing are associated with reductions in the incidence covid-19. Public health efforts to implement public health measures should consider community health and sociocultural needs, and future research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of public health measures in the context of covid-19 vaccination.
Linked Editorial

[corybroo]

[Gordo]

Austria infuriates many with full lockdown as Germany warns it may follow suit

[Saul]

Germany doesn't have a high vaccination rate.  Austria's vaccination rate is worse.

  --  Saul

[corybroo]

Both Germany and Austria have a slightly higher vaccination rate the the US.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

[Sibiriak]

93%-Vaccinated Ireland Has Gone Back Into 'Partial Lockdown'

Quote

Amid what's being called a fourth wave of infections to hit highly vaccinated Ireland, the government on Tuesday unveiled new Covid-related restrictions at a moment many are now worried the country could be headed toward a full nationwide lockdown before Christmas. 

The new measures take effect Friday, despite government officials confirming that at least 93% of all of Ireland's eligible population are fully vaccinated. This makes Ireland among the most vaccinated countries in the world, and yet similar to what the UK, Israel, and more recently Austria have experienced, infection rates are still exploding.

Ireland, home to one of Europe's highest vaccination rates, imposes curfew on pubs and clubs as cases rise 

Quote

[...]Ireland recorded its highest case number since January last Friday, when 5,483 new infections were reported. Deaths remain at a far lower rate than during its January peak, but are inching upwards. The county also recorded its second highest rate of hospital admission in all of 2021 this week, according to Martin.

One of the capital Dublin's main hospitals, the Mater Hospital, moved to ICU surge capacity on Monday and is now ventilating patients outside intensive care, according to state broadcaster RTÉ.]

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Sibiriak

[mccoy]

Here there are also been emphasis on a particular town in Ireland where over 99% of people are vaccinated, yet cases are increasing.

So, what's wrong?

Also, cases are increasing, but not everywhere hospitals are full, or ICUs clogged. And data are usually not stratified for age or state of health.

The loud message now is that we need beyond any doubt the 3rd shot. But, if 2 were not enough when they touted that herd immunity would have been reached with 70-80% of the population vaccinated, doubts arise that 3 shots will provide the final solution. 

[Gordo]

2 hours ago, mccoy said:

So, what's wrong?

To be fair, the vaccines seem to be extremely successful in preventing deaths, they just aren't super effective at stoping the spread.

2 hours ago, mccoy said:

The loud message now is that we need beyond any doubt the 3rd shot. But, if 2 were not enough when they touted that herd immunity would have been reached with 70-80% of the population vaccinated, doubts arise that 3 shots will provide the final solution. 

We have pretty solid data now showing the boosters offer additional protection from severe illness/hospitalization/death.  3 shots will NOT provide a "final solution".  3 flu shots aren't a "final solution" to anything either though.

 

[mccoy]

15 hours ago, Gordo said:

To be fair, the vaccines seem to be extremely successful in preventing deaths, they just aren't super effective at stoping the spread.

That's one conclusion, with one very positive aspect: less deaths. Now if they are not conclusive in stopping the spread, I have some objections in injiecting myself with multiple shots which may just not be ideal for health and longevity. I was in favour of the double shot, but now things have changed and the optimistic previsions of health institution do not appear to hold true. Vaccines are not the solution to stop the spread.

15 hours ago, Gordo said:

We have pretty solid data now showing the boosters offer additional protection from severe illness/hospitalization/death.  3 shots will NOT provide a "final solution".  3 flu shots aren't a "final solution" to anything either though.

That's good and, as with flue, we should let people free to decide. I've never had any flu shots. I do not like at all the idea of multiple mandatory shots to try and stop a virus which probably will never stop.

[Matt]

Not sure what is going on here, but data from the past week in Ireland. 

Edit: I need to read the reports and verify this. Doesn't make much sense...

If I'm understanding this right, he's saying 20 were unvaccinated and 28 were vaccinated with at least one dose and 23 of them being a subset of that.

Also, 45 deaths in total .45 had at least one dose of the vaccine and 41 of those were fully vaccinated.
 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Matt

[Mike41]

3 hours ago, Matt said:

Not sure what is going on here, but data from the past week in Ireland. 

Edit: I need to read the reports and verify this. Doesn't make much sense...

If I'm understanding this right, he's saying 20 were unvaccinated and 28 were vaccinated with at least one dose and 23 of them being a subset of that.

Also, 45 deaths in total .45 had at least one dose of the vaccine and 41 of those were fully vaccinated.
 

stats on vaccinated vs. unvaccinated always need to include the %ages of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in the populations studied. Otherwise they are virtually meaningless. IF 90% of the population is vaccinated then we have to account for that. 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Mike41

[Sibiriak]

Russia’s new nasal Covid-19 vaccine

Quote

President Vladimir Putin has announced that he is among the first people to have been given Russia’s new pioneering Covid-19 vaccine, administered through the nose without a needle, as part of his re-immunization [...]

“They asked me to breathe in deeply and count to three,” the Russian president said, adding that he didn’t feel anything during the process. “Six months after my vaccination, my antibody levels dropped and experts recommended a revaccination process,” Putin explained.

The nasal formula was developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute and is based on the country’s flagship Sputnik V vaccine. The institute’s head of microbiology, Denis Logunov, revealed that early research shows it could decrease the chances of infection, at a meeting with Putin on Sunday.

According to him, the use of the nasal version “is a convenient way to deliver a vaccine – it is painless, with an absolute minimum of side effects.”

Logunov went on to say that “after primary vaccination [by injection], you have systemic immunity, but after additional intranasal immunization, you create an additional immune barrier in the upper respiratory tract.”

Studies of the formula are expected to be conducted into 2022, he added.

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Sibiriak

[Matt]

Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfections as Compared with Primary Infections

"Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death. Reinfections were rare and were generally mild, perhaps because of the primed immune system after primary infection."

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Matt