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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

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On Friday, Cleveland Clinic reported its positive cases are 50% omicron

This is interesting because Omicron was first detected last Monday and now its 50% of the cases, and we aren't talking small numbers either.

Local doctors are calling Friday's case numbers the worst they've ever seen since the battle against the coronavirus began.

"We are incredibly busy," Dr. Claudia Hoyen, pediatric infectious disease specialist at UH Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital, said. "We're really in a much more dire situation than we've really been in the entire pandemic, I think."

"The most number of cases in the state of Ohio throughout the pandemic," Dr. Joseph Khabbaza, a pulmonary and critical care physician at the Cleveland Clinic, added.

In a single day, the state reported more than 10,000 new COVID-19 cases. The swift uptick in cases and hospitalizations even prompted Gov. Mike DeWine to make a move never done amid the pandemic.

"This is the first time in the pandemic where I believe our governor has had to call out the National Guard," Hoyen said.

__________________________________________

On a personal note, the reason I became aware of the above is because my brother lives in Cleveland and he just texted me that he is covid positive (he is vaxed and age 50 so not super high risk, although he is overweight and has a history of asthma so who knows).

Edited by Gordo

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TWIV is a youtube channel maintained by a panel of independent virologists. They read the articles, they discuss topics among themselves, they draw hopefully unbiased conclusions.

The conclusion on the booster dose after this episode was clear:

At the present state of knowledge, the booster dose has a cost/benefit ratio. The cost is a possible adverse reaction, mainly pericarditis. The benefit is a higher count of antibodies, which will likely decrease for some time the probability of hospitalization (the details of such benefits are not well known yet). Hence, the cost/benefit ratio swings in favor of the booster with immunocompromised people, people above 65, people with specific health problems. In young, immunocompetent people, the booster may do more damage than good.

The CDC is currently supporting the booster but provided no hard data to justify their decision. 

My impression now is that governments really do not know what to do. Having to tackle the ominous surge of the omicron variant, they cling to booster doses with the strength of desperation, since it's the only thing that gives the impression they are doing something good. They listen to the opinions of public health officials who recite the party line, whereas all other opinions, even if authoritative,  are ignored. They put stress on number of positive cases, even if it means nothing on the practical side, they want to push booster doses by terrorizing people or by threatening to take jobs away, or by locking them at home.

Unfortunately, desperation is the term which to me appears to describe best this situation.

 

 

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Hi McCoy!

You can always find some "expert" on the Internet who will "prove, beyond any doubt" whatever it is that you want to see "proved" (with or without a video).

However, Pfizer has a thoroughly competent set of virologists (and everything else).  And, Pfizer found that, for those triply vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine, there is effective prevention of infection by Omicron (meaning, fully vaccinated and boosted).  But for those with only two shots of their vaccine (i.e., those who are fully vaccinated, but not boosted), Omicron did infect. 

So it would appear that (at least) Pfizer boosters are of use in preventing infection with the Omicron variant, for those who are already fully vaccinated (at least with the Pfizer vaccine).

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Saul, I apply discrimination in listening to experts on the internet. I eschew bloggers. I listen to those who show to be unbiased, whatever they say. This si the host of the podcast.

 

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22 hours ago, Saul said:

However, Pfizer has a thoroughly competent set of virologists (and everything else).  And, Pfizer found that, for those triply vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine, there is effective prevention of infection by Omicron (meaning, fully vaccinated and boosted).  But for those with only two shots of their vaccine (i.e., those who are fully vaccinated, but not boosted), Omicron did infect. 

But it seems that infection is not a big issue. hospitalization and serious disease are. 

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Best not to get infected.  If you have pre-existing conditions -- e.g., obesity, diabetes, cancer -- then the three shots may not prevent infection, but it's much less likely to kill you.

Example: Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell was doubly vaccinated; but caught Covid and died.  He had stage 4 cancer -- it's debatable whether he died from the cancer or the Covid or both.

  --  Saul

 

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6 hours ago, Saul said:

If you have pre-existing conditions -- e.g., obesity, diabetes, cancer -- then the three shots may not prevent infection, but it's much less likely to kill you.

Saul, now we fully agree: over 65, immunocompromised, people with comorbidities... For them it's pretty clear that it is risky not to take the 3rd dose.

Whereas, younger, healthy people, for these it is not clear that the risk of pericarditis and other side effects may be greater than the risk of serious illness derived by the infection. Authorities (and vaccine developers) tend to underestimate (or ignore) such a risk. 

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Quote

 

Lab-based studies of neutralizing antibody responses are a hint that protection from vaccines or previous infection might be diminished. Many of these same studies suggest that a third dose boosts antibodies back up to levels that should be protective against omicron.

Boosters can even provide more protection than the original shots because the body churns out antibodies that have evolved to better recognize the virus every time we’re exposed to its proteins, Chandran says. So after a boost, the body doesn’t just make more antibodies, they’re better ones, too (SN: 11/24/20). But because the immune response to infections is complex and varies from person to person, experts rely on studies from people in the real world to know for sure.

 

They say 'many studies' but only a single one, a preprint, not peer-reviewed, has been reported.

'Experts rely on studies from people in the real world to know for sure'. So it's not sure yet that boosters can provide more protection than the original shots.

It all sounds like guesswork. One article cannot support mandatory, multiple booster shots, because the rationale beyond the booster is that they will have to be repeated at short intervals. And those who don't comply,  their jobs will be taken away. We often criticize the anti-democratic Chinese government, but we are acting worse now, far worse, because hypocrisy is on top of it.

I'm not very sure that's independent journalism, as touted in the title. 

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3 hours ago, mccoy said:

We often criticize the anti-democratic Chinese government, but we are acting worse now, far worse, because hypocrisy is on top of it.

You're free to go to the People's Republic.

  --  Saul

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Let's see .... first report of Omicron ... November 24, 2021 (South Africa)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7050e1.htm

Dec. 21, 2021: "The Omicron variant is now dominant in the US"

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-12-20-21-intl/index.html

Whoa Nelly!

Someone puhhhhhhhleeeeze ask Mr Omicron what brand o' runnin' shoes he's usin'. I want a pair for Xmas 😉

Edited by KHashmi316

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Unvaccinated Texas Man’s Death May Be First in U.S. Due to Omicron Variant

Probably too soon to make any judgements but the UK got Omicron before us, had a huge Spike in cases like we are starting to see now in the US, but still they are reporting almost no deaths (I think grand total of just 7 so far).

One anecdote I read was that Omicron patients are not showing the same signs of inflammation as delta patients. 

The stats are pretty amazing, Omicron is already the dominant variant in the US. Just ripping through. Where I live you can't find rapid test kits for sale anywhere.  So many teachers are out at my son's school they cannot find subs, my son tells me they send some classes to an auditorium, one of his classes just had no instruction and no adult ever showed up, hah. 

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6 hours ago, Gordo said:

One anecdote I read was that Omicron patients are not showing the same signs of inflammation as delta patients. 

There is the Hong-Kong University study cited by dr. campbell in his now very popular podcast (the news is now a week old). Apparently, omicron seems to replicate at extreme rates in the bronchial apparatus rather than the alveoli (slower replication rates than previous variants), which tends to prevent pneumonia and anoxya. This according to the above single study. 

So the anecdote would be now supported by some scientific research.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Gordo said:

Very interesting.  The article indicates that the vaccine allows researchers to tweak each spike on the "soccer ball" molecule to react to a particular SARS virus.  So, if further trials allow it to pass Phases 2 and 3, it could be a vaccine against all known strains of Covid-19 -- and, if I understand correctly, also Ebola and MERS, and other diseases that are SARS viruses (although the article doesn't state that explicitly).

OTOHH,  the current Covid-19 strains will probably mutate into yet more strains, before the novel Army vaccine is (if ever) approved by the FDA; and I have little doubt that both Pfizer and Moderna are tweaking their mrna vaccines to be more effective against both Delta and Omicron; and that will probably happen much sooner than FDA approval of the Army vaccine.  The reason:  these mrna vaccines are much easier to modify than (apparently all) known Covid-19 vaccines.

My own guess as to what will happen:  we'll all get used to getting a Covid-19 mrna shot annually (or maybe semi-annually?) along with our annual flu shot.  (Our annual flu shots are "tweaked" to be likely to be effective on the expected dominant strains of flu for the the year).

Also, there have been press releases, about half a year ago, on research to create an mrna vaccine against flu that is expected to be easier to tweak than the current adenovirus vector flu vaccines.

We'll see.

  --  Saul

 

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On 12/21/2021 at 1:41 AM, mccoy said:

Saul, now we fully agree: over 65, immunocompromised, people with comorbidities... For them it's pretty clear that it is risky not to take the 3rd dose.

Whereas, younger, healthy people, for these it is not clear that the risk of pericarditis and other side effects may be greater than the risk of serious illness derived by the infection. Authorities (and vaccine developers) tend to underestimate (or ignore) such a risk. 

Hi McCoy!

I apologize for my suggestion that you might want to go to China.  Italy seems like a much better place to me than China.  😀

But, I think that you exaggerate the risk of pericarditis with a third shot for children or others:  it's no more dangerous than it is for a first or second shot; or for a flu shot.

My 5 year old grandson has gotten his two Pfizer shots (but they're not yet approved for my 2 year old granddaughter).

People -- of whatever age -- who do not have bad reactions to flu vaccines probably won't for Covid-19 vaccines.

  --  Saul

  . 

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1 hour ago, Saul said:

Italy seems like a much better place to me than China

It used to be, Saul, until the arrival of the SARS-COV2. Now it appears that the state is ready to apply the methods of police dictatorships like China and other countries.

I'm not against a full 2-doses vaccination, but I'm against the craziness which has erupted with these booster doses, which will not be annual, they will have to be repeated after a few months, it is not yet clear how often.

And those who do not agree on having themselves continuously injected by an often useless vaccine,  no problem, they will be punished by leaving them with no work and income.

Mussolini, the founder of fascism in Italy, was apparently more democratic than today's western democratic governments.

Edited by mccoy

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7 hours ago, mccoy said:

It used to be, Saul, until the arrival of the SARS-COV2. Now it appears that the state is ready to apply the methods of police dictatorships like China and other countries.

I'm not against a full 2-doses vaccination, but I'm against the craziness which has erupted with these booster doses, which will not be annual, they will have to be repeated after a few months, it is not yet clear how often.

And those who do not agree on having themselves continuously injected by an often useless vaccine,  no problem, they will be punished by leaving them with no work and income.

Mussolini, the founder of fascism in Italy, was apparently more democratic than today's western democratic governments.

Hi McCoy!

I think that you're two harsh on your countrymen.  You (and I) are lucky to not have lived under a REAL totalitarian government -- like Spain's Franco, or Italy's Mussolini, or Soviet Russia's Communist government leaders, or TODAY'S Chairman of the People's Republic of China, or (the worst) Hitler's Germany.  (I've arranged them, IMO, in order of increasing revulsion.)

My parents were very happy to make it (legally) to the US, from Lenin's Russia, shortly after the Bolshevik Revolution.  (Actually, Lenin's Russia wasn't as bad as most of the above.  It took later more obscene Soviet dictators to create the mess that still survives in the Russian republic, under the "Democratically elected" Putin.)

  --  Saul

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22 hours ago, mccoy said:

And those who do not agree on having themselves continuously injected by an often useless vaccine,  no problem, they will be punished by leaving them with no work and income.

Ha, Ha!  That's nothing!  While there are still sane places in the US, my city Chicago wants to be nastier than the the worst of Europe.  Our New Year's resolution is the unvaccinated will no longer be allowed indoor fitness activities outside of our homes such as health clubs, gyms, pools, dancing, racquetball, etc.  They now openly admit it is about coercion and there won't be exemptions for those with negative covid tests or proven immunity.  Which for me now makes it a matter of principle to never get vaccinated even if one is developed that actually is safe and effective. 

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4 hours ago, Todd Allen said:

Our New Year's resolution is the unvaccinated will no longer be allowed indoor fitness activities outside of our homes such as health clubs, gyms, pools, dancing, racquetball, etc. 

Todd, that has been the rule in Italy for months now. I was only partly joking when comparing the Italian government to the Chinese.

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