Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[Gordo]

That said, its still following a parabolic infection curve:

It may actually be kind of alarming that concern seems to have dissipated outside of China.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Gordo

[Todd Allen]

According to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

as of this morning 31,523 confirmed cases, 638 deaths

Here is a good review article with recent info on the virus

https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

[Gordo]

Yes, and I haven't seen very many reports that include the ages of people who died, but it doesn't seem to be just the elderly by any means.

Interestingly, the virus seems to be creating a new push for free speech in China (have to look for silver linings!)

[Gordo]

Interesting, just when it seemed this thing was fizzling out they announce a big jump in new infections and deaths:

The number of new cases in Hubei grew by nearly 15,000, with 242 additional deaths counted in a single day.

Makes for a weird looking chart:

 

[mccoy]

MMMmmm...., the western world seems to date almost impervious to the outbreak. Wonder if and when we are going to see a significant ascending trend in the infection and mortality curves.

[mccoy]

Intersting references to sleep and some of the mechanisms which boost the immune system and consequent reactions to viral infections. It pretty much resonates with Matthew walker's suggestions in his book on sleep. Sleep, especially the NREM phase, appears to be associated to greater HGH release (boosting the growth of immune cells) and lessere norepinehrine (inhibiting the immune reaction). Last year I had light fever for a couple of days and I remember I just slept across all day, ate little, avoided cold exposure, fortunately it was a weekend so I could humour the neurological signals 100%. Such signals just naturally drove me toward the most favourable conditions to anhance the immune reaction against that particular infection.

 

 

 

[Gordo]

Is this thing really contained?  Lets see in a couple more weeks...

[Gordo]

Edited February 21, 2020 by Gordo

[Sibiriak]

Italy becoming a hot spot now, it seems.

 

Coronavirus outbreak: special powers enacted in Italy after deaths – live news

 

Quote

 

A summary of the latest developments

• Infection toll in China reaches 2,345 as South Korea raises its alert level and Iran confirms sixth death from virus
• In South Korea the national toll of 556 cases is now the highest outside China, apart from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
• Japan has confirmed that a woman who tested negative and left the coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship later tested positive, raising more questions about the effectiveness of quarantine measures.
• A dozen towns in northern Italy in effect went into lockdown on Saturday after deaths of two people infected with the coronavirus from China, and a growing cluster of cases with no direct links to the origin of the outbreak abroad.
• A repatriation flight carrying 32 Britons and Europeans from the coronavirus-infected cruise ship Diamond Princess landed in the UK on Saturday – amid growing fears for the welfare of some UK passengers left behind in Japan.
• The French health minister, Olivier Véran, said new cases of coronavirus were “very likely” in France and health authorities were ready in case of an epidemic.
• Mainland China noted a significant fall in the number of new cases, with 397 reported on Saturday. The total number of cases in mainland China to 76,288 and there have been 2,345 deaths.
• The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the window of opportunity to stem the deadly epidemic was “narrowing” amid concern about a surge in cases with no clear link to China.

 

•  

[mccoy]

Yes, the Covid-19 is by now probably pandemic. Until 3 days ago, in Italy it was just 3 cases. Now it's over 70, with 2 or 3 deaths. The velocity with which it spread out is impressive, similar maybe to an explosion. Positive cases are popping out everywhere.

What is happening now, and will probably happen in other countries, is that the authorities are enforcing quarantines in the places where the virus appears. 5 small towns have been closed up, all shops and public places and activity halted, people are in terror and one guy managed to force the quarantine and flee to his town of birth, contaminating probably other people in the process. Only pharmacies and supermarkets, in rotation, are allowed to be open.

One hospital was suddenly closed, none, either worker, patients or visitors can go out or in until everyone will be examined for contamination.

There is no social disruption but what is happening is that people are being deprived forcedly of their individual freedom for the sake of collective health. So far so good, but I wonder if the police and the army will be enough to quarantine all small towns and villages. 

In a short while, I'm going to stock up the food discussed in another previous post. Positive side is that, if quarantined, I'll have an opportunity to rest and catch up with work and errands, hoping of course that the immune system is really so good as I boasted in other posts, LOL!

Edited February 23, 2020 by mccoy

[Sibiriak]

Thanks for the report, Mccoy.

[mccoy]

You're welcome Sibiriak, the cause of such sudden outburst are still unknown, I think maybe one reason is the longer than thought incubation time, some researchers are saying 4 weeks now, but probably this virus is still very little known. In Italy there is a large Chinese community and Chinese tourists are visiting a lot.

[Sibiriak]

More details here:

10 Italian towns in lockdown over coronavirus fears

[Gordo]

Wow mccoy, you are now our guy on the front lines of this pandemic, who would have guessed?

Markets severely rattled tonight, will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Summary of latest developments:

• South Korea raised its national threat level to “red alert” for the first time since the H1N1 swine flu outbreak in 2009. The total number of confirmed cases in the country reached 763, a jump of 161 overnight, and a 25-fold increase in the past week.
• The Italian government said it has 152 confirmed cases, up from three in a matter of days. Three people have died. Authorities have locked down about a dozen small towns and canceled events across the north, including Venice’s Carnival.
• Iran has confirmed eight deaths related to the coronavirus, the most outside of China, media reported Sunday. South Korea confirmed its seventh death.
• 4 more cases confirmed in UK
• 200 Israelis quarantined
• Japan confirms more cases; Japanese Emperor expresses hope for Tokyo Games
• Trump says US has everything 'under control' as he asks Congress for more money
• EU's Gentiloni says he has 'full confidence' In Italian health officials
• Turkey, Pakistan close borders with Iran as confirmed cases soar
• Global Times says virus may not have originated at Hunan seafood market
• Axios reports shortages of 150 essential drugs likely.

[Sibiriak]

Coronavirus: Panic Starting

Quote

Despite what the unprecedented lockdown of areas in China that produced 70% of its GDP, and the use of hazmat suits, revealed about what Chinese officials were seeing, the rest of the world remained oddly complacent about what the novel coronavirus meant for them. How reassuring was it really if the disease had moderated as a result of the effective quarantining of the population, a condition that was clearly not sustainable? And there was the oddly optimistic view that a country of 1.2 billion could effectively be cordoned off from the rest of the world…particularly after it became clear the lockdown was implemented after the cornoavirus was meaningfully underway...

 

Quote

[...] it is disconcerting how much we still don’t know about this disease. It has a troublingly long incubation period, raising the possibility that some can harbor low level infections for a long time by normal contagion standards. Individuals can repeatedly test negative yet later develop the coronavirus. The Journal of Hospital Infection reported that human coronaviruses can live as long as nine days on surfaces…but alcohol will kill it in a minute.

The rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy, on top of clusters in South Korea and Japan, has finally kicked officials in some countries into panic, even if they aren’t sure what to do. And this follows shortly on the mishandling of the two cruise ships with infected passengers and crew. But outside the business press in the US, there’s not much evidence of concern.

And on the business front, the reality is sinking in that it isn’t clear when China might get back to a semblance of normal operation. For instance, insiders leaked that the FDA had prepared a list of 150 medications, including some with no substitute, that were at risk of shortages. Equity markets, which had been complacent, are now looking rattled. South Korean averages are down more than 3.3%, the Hang Seng is off nearly 1.5%, US and European stock futures are off, and oil fell by over 3%.

 

Quote

From Politico’s morning European e-mail:

[...]Schengen under pressure: As fears grow that the coronavirus outbreak will grow into a pandemic, the borderless Schengen zone is feeling the pressure. Austria late on Sunday suspended train traffic toward Italy after two rail passengers on a train in the opposite direction — from Venice to Munich — were suspected of being infected with the coronavirus. (Trains over the Brenner Pass resumed running on Monday, after the travelers tested negative.) Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in a press conference that his government wants to uphold the freedom of movement and no restrictions are planned for the time being — with an accent on the second part of that sentence.

 

Quote

Yves here. I am relying on memory, which may be faulty (but Google is no help) but I had thought the person who was the original suspected Italian patient zero had been quarantined for 14 days, tested negative, came home, later got a mild case but infected others, at least one seriously. I appear not to be alone in having seen something along those lines:

BREAKING – the "Veneto" (Northern Italy) region "patient zero" has been found, he is a Chinese textile worker who went to the Inter-Milan derby, then infected the two (dead) pensioners who further spread it.

Italy has reported 129 #COVID19 infected.https://t.co/I8i6E6Ju5T https://t.co/nWYowBjPWs

This confusion about disease propagation makes me wonder if the authorities are rejecting that this individual could be the origin of all these infections….and if so, are in denial that the coronavirus might be exceptionally infectious.

The outbreak area, as indicated, is near Milan, and the Milanese are hunkering down:

Stunned by Europe’s biggest surge of the #coronavirus, Italy appears to be operating in near panic mode.

Grocery store shelves in Milan are empty. More @business: https://t.co/zkk4kNjYI7 #Covid_19 #COVID19italia pic.twitter.com/qjPPs9KTa5

— QuickTake by Bloomberg (@QuickTake) February 24, 2020

Needless to say, the general area hit represents about 30% of Italy’s GDP, and comes when Italy is on the verge of a recession.

Things are not pretty in Asia either. From Reuters:

South Korea’s fourth-largest city Daegu grew increasingly isolated as the number of infections there increased rapidly, with Asiana Airlines and Korean Air suspending flights to the city until March 9 and March 28 respectively….

South Korean authorities reported a seventh death and another 161 new cases on Monday, taking the total to 763. Of the new cases, 115 were linked to a church in Daegu.

Seoul raised its infectious disease alert to its highest level on Sunday after the southeastern city and nearby Cheongdo county – where infections surged last week – were designated “special care zones”.

The escalation in the alert level allows the government to send extra resources to Daegu and Cheongdo, forcibly prevent public activities and order the temporary closure of schools.

One bit of good news is China is claiming there were only 11 new cases were found outside Hubei…but how much faith do those inside and outside China put in that number?   ETC.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Gordo]

Wow, global panic in the markets setting in this morning, it will be interesting to see what the week brings...

 

[Dean Pomerleau]

One thing on our side (those of us who are reading this) is that for the most part we are free of comorbidities. As you can see from this table (from here), the risk of dying from COVID-19 is quite low (0.9%) if you don't have any preexisting condition:

So the best advice seems to be wash you hands frequently and don't panic, even if the virus spreads much more dramatically.

--Dean

 

[Gordo]

2 hours ago, Dean Pomerleau said:

don't panic

Yes Dean, I agree.  80% of people who get it have no symptoms or only mild symptoms like the common cold.  Although even 1 in 100 odds of death isn't fun.

Perhaps importantly:

Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies.

Gao J, et al. Biosci Trends. 2020.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/32074550/?i=1&from=/trending

This drug is cheap and ubiquitous.  One can even order it from online pharmacies although I am not recommending this as doing so would just create a hoarding situation where the drugs go to people who don't need it and potentially keeping them from people who do need it.  I'm sure the manufacturers are already ramping up supply for hospitals.

 

[Sibiriak]

 

Quote

 

On the bright side, the WHO team in China has concluded the virus can be contained. It peaked between the end of January and the beginning of February.

World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO)

"They found that the #COVID19 epidemic peaked & plateaued between the 23rd of January & the 2nd of February & has been declining steadily since then.

They have found that there has been no significant change in the DNA of the #coronavirus"-@DrTedros

February 24, 2020

 

 

[Dean Pomerleau]

It looks like the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracking website Gordo pointed to has been reconfigured to require a password. Any good alternatives people have found? I quick web search didn't seem to turn up anything. 

--Dean 

[Gordo]

1 hour ago, Dean Pomerleau said:

It looks like the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracking website Gordo pointed to has been reconfigured to require a password. Any good alternatives people have found? I quick web search didn't seem to turn up anything. 

--Dean 

Original link I posted works, screen shot:

 

Edited February 24, 2020 by Gordo

[Dean Pomerleau]

Thanks Gordo, 

They must have been reconfiguring it when I tried. 

--Dean 

[Ron Put]

Just to keep it in perspective:

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

That's for 2017, which was a bad flu season.

[TomBAvoider]

Meanwhile of course as usual in such situations conspiracy theories spread even faster than the virus :)... latest thing that's talked around here is that the virus escaped from a Chinese military bioweapons program and that's what accounts for its virulence. 

The stock market panic is one thing, but some ugly stuff is happening too with more general panic when East Asian phenotype looking people are berated and abused in public. It's gonna be a funny election year if this disease keeps spreading and persists. 

I'm curious to know if there is a seasonal aspect to this the way there is when it comes to the flu. Of course we also have the example of the original Spanish Flu and what a massive and long lasting disaster that was. I apologise ahead of time for not keeping up, but does anyone know if this virus belongs to the flu family of viruses or is something from a completely different branch? Inquiring minds want to know...

[Gordo]

Have a look at: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.