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Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

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The CDC has updated its website of coronavirus forecasts. They entirely removed the IHME model from their ensemble of models, probably because it was doing such a poor job at predicting the actual number of deaths. The IHME is now predicting 72K US deaths by Aug 4th, when we'll hit that number by next week unless a miracle happens.

Most of the other models don't make predictions more than a few weeks out. The current consensus among the models is for the US to reach about 90K deaths in about three weeks (May 20th):

Screenshot_20200502-164412_Chrome.jpg

A newly added model from MIT isn't shown in the graph above, but predicts almost exactly 100K US deaths by May 20th and 125K deaths at its farthest out prediction (June 20th).

I need to make a correction from last time I did a model update. I mistakenly called the YYG model the "Columbia University" model. The Columbia model is actually labelled CU-40, CU-30 and CU-20 in the left graph above, depending on the level of social distancing. Their predictions vary from 100 to 120K deaths by May 20th.

The most accurate model over the last few weeks is still the one I highlighted last time (YYG) and it is predicting 94K deaths by May 20th (95% CI 82-107K). It has increased its Aug 4th projections from 153K deaths to 168K deaths (95% CI 89-268K) due to earlier and more widespread relaxation of social distancing measures. This models now projects there is a 96% chance of >100k deaths by Aug 1st, and a 55% chance of >150K deaths by then.

2 hours ago, KHashmi317 said:

PSSST: It's not that bad ...

As I've said before, I don't think an indefinite lockdown is sustainable or the best way to minimize overall harm going forward. We don't have a choice but to relax the restrictions and the extra infections (and deaths) that result over the next few months may even blunt an even bigger wave that could otherwise hit in the fall/winter.

But to suggest "it's not that bad" when it will almost certainly kill more than 100K people in the US in first wave and who knows how many more in the second (or third) seems more callous than I'd expect you to be. And do you really believe Dr.Nut Knut and his claim that the pandemic is (nearly) over when the best evidence from population serology testing suggests only a single digit percentage of people in the US have been exposed to the virus so far?

--Dean

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On 5/1/2020 at 8:04 PM, Ron Put said:

If the flu kills on average 50-60 thousand people in the US annually

The CDC's estimates for the previous decade has only 2 years in excess of 50,000 deaths with years ranging from 12,000 to 61,000.

Despite a massive unsustainable effort to slow the spread Covid-19 has killed in a month roughly the estimated toll for the entire worst year of flu in the last decade.  Probably significantly more as it will take some time to get a full accounting of the victims.   The number of active cases is still increasing and approaching a million.  An optimistic estimate would be we are 1/6th of the way to herd immunity.  This is far from over.  This is not the flu. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

 

 

Edited by Todd Allen

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Covid 19,   just another flu,  ho hum,  yet the whole world goes mad,  the capitalist class folds, the global economy tanks.   Because China.  Because populism.  So simple.    

 

 

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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image.png.e00b4a3d4773a8738861150be18d4378.png

Protesters calling for the reopening of beaches and businesses in California.  I say,  let them spread out on the beach,  in the sun and fresh air.

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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The Inevitable Coronavirus Censorship Crisis is Here

As the Covid-19 crisis progresses, censorship programs advance, amid calls for China-style control of the Internet

Quote

 

Earlier this week, Atlantic magazine – fast becoming the favored media outlet for self-styled intellectual elites of the Aspen Institute type – ran an in-depth article of the problems free speech pose to American society in the coronavirus era. The headline:

Internet Speech Will Never Go Back to Normal

In the debate over freedom versus control of the global network, China was largely correct, and the U.S. was wrong.

Authored by a pair of law professors from Harvard and the University of Arizona, Jack Goldsmith and Andrew Keane Woods, the piece argued that the American and Chinese approaches to monitoring the Internet were already not that dissimilar:

Constitutional and cultural differences mean that the private sector, rather than the federal and state governments, currently takes the lead in these practices… But the trend toward greater surveillance and speech control here, and toward the growing involvement of government, is undeniable and likely inexorable.

They went on to list all the reasons that, given that we’re already on an “inexorable” path to censorship, a Chinese-style system of speech control may not be such a bad thing. In fact, they argued, a benefit of the coronavirus was that it was waking us up to “how technical wizardry, data centralization, and private-public collaboration can do enormous public good.”

Perhaps, they posited, Americans could be moved to reconsider their “understanding” of the First and Fourth Amendments, as “the harms from digital speech” continue to grow, and “the social costs of a relatively open Internet multiply.”

This interesting take on the First Amendment was the latest in a line of “Let’s rethink that whole democracy thing” pieces that began sprouting up in earnest four years ago. Articles with headlines like “Democracies end when they become too democratic” and “Too much of a good thing: why we need less democracy” became common after two events in particular: Donald Trump’s victory in the the Republican primary race, and the decision by British voters to opt out of the EU, i.e. “Brexit.”

A consistent lament in these pieces was the widespread decline in respect for “experts” among the ignorant masses, better known as the people Trump was talking about when he gushed in February 2016, “I love the poorly educated!”

The Atlantic was at the forefront of the argument that The People is a Great Beast, one that cannot be trusted to play responsibly with the toys of freedom. A 2016 piece called “American politics has gone insane” pushed a return of the “smoke-filled room” to help save voters from themselves. Author Jonathan Rauch employed a metaphor that is striking in retrospect, describing America’s oft-vilified intellectual and political elite as society’s immune system:

Americans have been busy demonizing and disempowering political professionals and parties, which is like spending decades abusing and attacking your own immune system. Eventually, you will get sick.

The new piece by Goldsmith and Woods says we’re there, made literally sick by our refusal to accept the wisdom of experts. The time for asking the (again, literally) unwashed to listen harder to their betters is over. The Chinese system offers a way out. When it comes to speech, don’t ask: tell.


As the Atlantic lawyers were making their case, YouTube took down a widely-circulated video about coronavirus, citing a violation of “community guidelines.”

The offenders were Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massahi, co-owners of an “Urgent Care” clinic in Bakersfield, California. They’d held a presentation in which they argued that widespread lockdowns were perhaps not necessary, according to data they were collecting and analyzing.

“Millions of cases, small amounts of deaths,” said Erickson, a vigorous, cheery-looking Norwegian-American who argued the numbers showed Covid-19 was similar to flu in mortality rate.  “Does [that] necessitate shutdown, loss of jobs, destruction of oil companies, furloughing doctors…? I think the answer is going to be increasingly clear.”

The reaction of the medical community was severe. It was pointed out that the two men owned a clinic that was losing business thanks to the lockdown. The message boards of real E.R. doctors lit up with angry comments, scoffing at the doctors’ dubious (at best) data collection methods and even their somewhat dramatic choice to dress in scrubs for their video presentation.

The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) scrambled to issue a joint statement to “emphatically condemn” the two doctors, who “do not speak for medical society” and had released “biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests.”

As is now almost automatically the case in the media treatment of any controversy, the story was immediately packaged for “left” and “right” audiences by TV networks. Tucker Carlson on Fox backed up the doctors’ claims, saying “these are serious people who’ve done this for a living for decades” and YouTube and Google have “officially banned dissent.”

Meanwhile, over on Carlson’s opposite-number channel, MSNBC, anchor Chris Hayes of the All In program reacted with fury to Carlson’s monologue:

There’s a concerted effort on the part of influential people at the network that we at All In call Trump TV right now to peddle dangerous misinformation about the coronavirus… Call it coronavirus trutherism.

Hayes, an old acquaintance of mine, seethed at what he characterized as the gross indifference of Trump Republicans to the dangers of coronavirus. “At the beginning of this horrible period, the president, along with his lackeys, and propagandists, they all minimized what was coming,” he said, sneering. “They said it was just like a cold or the flu.”

He angrily demanded that if Fox acolytes like Carlson believed so strongly that society should be reopened, they should go work in a meat processing plant. “Get in there if you think it’s that bad. Go chop up some pork.”

The tone of the many media reactions to Erickson, Carlson, Trump, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, and others who’ve suggested lockdowns and strict shelter-in-place laws are either unnecessary or do more harm than good, fits with what writer Thomas Frank describes as a new “Utopia of Scolding”:

Who needs to win elections when you can personally reestablish the social order every day on Twitter and Facebook? When you can scold, and scold, and scold. That’s their future, and it’s a satisfying one: a finger wagging in some vulgar proletarian’s face, forever.

In the Trump years the sector of society we used to describe as liberal America became a giant finger-wagging machine. The news media, academia, the Democratic Party, show-business celebrities and masses of blue-checked Twitter virtuosos became a kind of umbrella agreement society, united by loathing of Trump and fury toward anyone who dissented with their preoccupations.

Because Conventional Wisdom viewed itself as being solely concerned with the Only Important Thing, i.e. removing Trump, there was no longer any legitimate excuse for disagreeing with Conventional Wisdom’s takes on Russia, Julian Assange, Jill Stein, Joe Rogan, the 25th amendment, Ukraine, the use of the word “treason,” the removal of Alex Jones, the movie Joker, or whatever else happened to be the #Resistance fixation of the day.

When the Covid-19 crisis struck, the scolding utopia was no longer abstraction. The dream was reality! Pure communism had arrived! Failure to take elite advice was no longer just a deplorable faux pas. Not heeding experts was now murder. It could not be tolerated. Media coverage quickly became a single, floridly-written tirade against “expertise-deniers.” For instance, the Atlantic headline on Kemp’s decision to end some shutdowns was, “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice.”

At the outset of the crisis, America’s biggest internet platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Google, LinkedIn, and Reddit – took an unprecedented step to combat “fraud and misinformation” by promising extensive cooperation in elevating “authoritative” news over less reputable sources.

H.L. Mencken once said that in America, “the general average of intelligence, of knowledge, of competence, of integrity, of self-respect, of honor is so low that any man who knows his trade, does not fear ghosts, has read fifty good books, and practices the common decencies stands out as brilliantly as a wart on a bald head.”

We have a lot of dumb people in this country. But the difference between the stupidities cherished by the Idiocracy set ingesting fish cleaner, and the ones pushed in places like the Atlantic, is that the jackasses among the “expert” class compound their wrongness by being so sure of themselves that they force others to go along. In other words, to combat “ignorance,” the scolders create a new and more virulent species of it: exclusive ignorance, forced ignorance, ignorance with staying power.

The people who want to add a censorship regime to a health crisis are more dangerous and more stupid by leaps and bounds than a president who tells people to inject disinfectant. It’s astonishing that they don’t see this.

 

Quote

 

[...]  We’ve become incapable of talking calmly about possible solutions because we’ve lost the ability to decouple scientific or policy discussions, or simple issues of fact, from a political argument. Reporting on the Covid-19 crisis has become the latest in a line of moral manias with Donald Trump in the middle.

Instead of asking calmly if hydroxychloroquine works, or if the less restrictive Swedish crisis response has merit, or questioning why certain statistical assumptions about the seriousness of the crisis might have been off, we’re denouncing the questions themselves as infamous. Or we’re politicizing the framing of stories in a way that signals to readers what their take should be before they even digest the material. “Conservative Americans see coronavirus hope in Progressive Sweden,” reads a Politico headline, as if only conservatives should feel optimism in the possibility that a non-lockdown approach might have merit! Are we rooting for such an approach to not work?

From everything I’ve heard, talking to doctors and reading the background material, the Bakersfield doctors are probably not to be trusted. But the functional impact of removing their videos (in addition to giving them press they wouldn’t otherwise have had) is to stamp out discussion of things that do actually need to be discussed, like when the damage to the economy and the effects of other crisis-related problems – domestic abuse, substance abuse, suicide, stroke, abuse of children, etc. – become as significant a threat to the public as the pandemic. We do actually have to talk about this. We can’t not talk about it out of fear of being censored, or because we’re confusing real harm with political harm.

Turning ourselves into China for any reason is the definition of a cure being worse than the disease. The scolders who are being seduced by such thinking have to wake up, before we end up adding another disaster on top of the terrible one we’re already facing.

 

 

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PSSSST..... it's not that bad...

Quote

As he is careful to point out, Professor Michael Levitt is not an epidemiologist. He’s Professor of Structural Biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Chemistry for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.” 

With a purely statistical perspective, he has been playing close attention to the Covid-19 pandemic since January, when most of us were not even aware of it. He first spoke out in early February, when through analysing the numbers of cases and deaths in Hubei province he predicted with remarkable accuracy that the epidemic in that province would top out at around 3,250 deaths.

In this interview with Freddie Sayers, Executive Editor of UnHerd, Professor Levitt explains why he thinks indiscriminate lockdown measures as “a huge mistake,” and advocates a “smart lockdown” policy, focused on more effective measures, focused on protecting elderly people.
 

 

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1 hour ago, KHashmi317 said:

he thinks indiscriminate lockdown measures as “a huge mistake,” and advocates a “smart lockdown” policy, focused on more effective measures, focused on protecting elderly people.

Yep, makes sense to me,  a reasonable middle ground position (I usually favor "smart" over  "indiscriminate").    I'd add:  focused on protecting all the vulnerable,  not just the elderly.

 

 

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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So when you look at the global pandemic  it is difficult to  make any sense of it or figure out what to do. The variables are just so  awesome and the assumptions don’t always play out the way they are supposed to.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html?referringSource=articleShare
 

Lies, damn lies and statistics, Mark Twain

Edited by Mike41

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Took these photos from Manhattan Beach, CA, yesterday, as I biked thru... as close as I could get to to beach legally ... both the pedestrian Strand and the bike paths are closed. As is the Pier and beach. Interestingly, the beach itself had quite a few city workers on it doing maint. work (maybe long-neglected maint. work, finally doable). Amusingly, the street alleyways (just a few meters to the right of the house--run parallel to beach ) are fully open (and where the peds and cyclists are sharing the road with .... ugh... traffic). What a way to run a railroad! 

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MGkWwGM_2qpOOyjb5u4KhEU4gQXNqcHV3F9cZgTq

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Some interesting video footage posted today about Harbin, China. Can’t really tell how bad things are there yet, just that the CCP seems to be freaking out:

 

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On a sidenote, here in LA, CA, the price of gas has not dropped a penny at the gas stations I've seen, regardless of what oil futures went for in the recent past - which is exactly as I predicted. 

In general, prices are holding stable across the board, whether housing prices (even if the home real estate market is very low activity, prices are holding) or food or electronics or other products. There are some dramatic price spikes for some goods, but no collapse in retail prices in any category that I can see at the moment.

This tells me that there's still a lot of room for price adjustment in the coming months, so we should all buckle up for quite a ride. Perhaps the economic damage will not end up quite as deep as feared early on, although recovery scenarios look increasingly unlikely to be V-shaped. The financials though, especially government, look quite sorry though - what does this mean for the future of global economy is anyone's guess.

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12 minutes ago, TomBAvoider said:

On a sidenote, here in LA, CA, the price of gas has not dropped a penny

I just drove the parts of Ohio and Indiana to pick up my daughter from college in St. Louis. Gas along the route had dropped dramatically. The lowest I saw was $1.45 per gallon. Near my home in Pittsburgh it was around $2.29, largely due to one of the highest gas tax in the nation after California ($0.77/gal).

Here is a graph of average gas prices in Pittsburgh, California and the US as a whole over the past year as reported by GasBuddy. The price has actually dropped pretty substantially across the country since early March (~27% in California) :

Screenshot_20200503-204119_Chrome.jpg

--Dean 

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4 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

On a sidenote, here in LA, CA, the price of gas has not dropped a penny at the gas stations I've seen, regardless of what oil futures went for in the recent past - which is exactly as I predicted. 

In general, prices are holding stable across the board, whether housing prices (even if the home real estate market is very low activity, prices are holding) or food or electronics or other products. There are some dramatic price spikes for some goods, but no collapse in retail prices in any category that I can see at the moment.

This tells me that there's still a lot of room for price adjustment in the coming months, so we should all buckle up for quite a ride. Perhaps the economic damage will not end up quite as deep as feared early on, although recovery scenarios look increasingly unlikely to be V-shaped. The financials though, especially government, look quite sorry though - what does this mean for the future of global economy is anyone's guess.

 

California’s High Gasoline Prices Are No Accident

vs. Gas selling for under $1 per gallon in 13 states as national prices plummet during coronavirus quarantines

Home sales have plummeted (but prices have not), if the "enhanced unemployment" and stimulus checks (free money for everyone) ever end, we may see lower prices too, but until then maybe not.  As for price drops - you speak of "retail" I don't know what its like where you are, but where I live, only essential stores are even open, how would we know anything about retail pricing when all the stores are closed?  Haha.  Auto sales are so poor that there are huge ships stuck out at sea with the inventory on them and no place to put them!  

Coronavirus downturn has SUVs get parked at sea due to U.S. auto market glut  I'm thinking to move inventory they will have to discount, but who knows, maybe not, the inventory could just be piling up because the dealerships are closed, but demand is still there.

Anyone watch Warren Buffet monologue for 3 hours yesterday??  It was a pretty good speech, even if rambling.  A nice summary is hereHe seems to be expecting a slow recovery and has not been buying anything, in fact Berkshire has sold and raised more cash. He even made some comparisons to the 1929 crash and the fact that it took 25 years to recover from it.  Not that he is expecting a 25 year recovery, just that it will probably take longer than most people expect.  He liquidated 100% of his airline holdings (Delta, United, SouthWest, American) which is pretty uncharacteristic, if he believed in the longer term prospects he would have bought more at these deep discounts, instead he did the opposite.  People are blaming him for the fact that futures are currently down pretty steeply.

Edited by Gordo

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22 minutes ago, Dean Pomerleau said:

 

Screenshot_20200503-204119_Chrome.jpg

--Dean 

Interesting, the drop in California is steeper than the rest of the country even though they still have higher prices.

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Well, if you travel across CA, gas prices were ALWAYS lower in the interior and non-urban places. But in big cities, it's different. Like I say, literally, the price in LA has not dropped at all. I suspect the entire 27% drop reported for CA is in those smaller towns or rural areas where the price of gas was never what it was f.ex. in LA anyhow.

As to "retail" - I'm just going off of what you can buy online. F.ex. I need new jogging shoes at some point, and out of idle curiosity, I looked online, because I read that one of the things where demand just collapsed was precisely in sports related things like running shoes (I think I read it was like 75% drop in sales?). Well, you'd think prices would be super low. No such thing - there was no drop that I could see, since I buy running shoes regularly... I saw no change in prices! And so on for many things I regularly buy on Amazon, and other online stores. Again, maybe I'm always looking for just the things that never drop in price and it's all a big coincidence, but there you go. I was looking to buy a new Oral-B electric toothbrush - zero drop in price (i.e. the same fake "discount" it's always been, no different today than a year ago). I can go on like this for tons and tons of products.

I keep an eye on real estate housing market, and no, prices are not dropping - I guess perhaps it depends on the area? Anyway, I read that cars are supposed to collapse for used cars and eventually (I'd guess?) for new ones... well, I tell you, car parts have not - just bought a new battery, full price, no discount. So again, and again, it seems prices are holding steady. Perhaps it depends on the area and what you're looking for. Or maybe the full adjustment will happen in a few months. We'll see, I guess.

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2 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

As to "retail" - I'm just going off of what you can buy online

Why would an Amazon for example lower prices when that's one of the few places people can even go to shop?  They've got more traffic and sales than ever before in their history (although profit was down, they barely make money selling essentials especially with free shipping, they will likely need to raise prices on everything).

 

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Quote

South Africa's unemployment rate could reach 40%

South Africa’s treasury director general warned that unemployment rate could reach 40%, Reuters reports.  In a radio interview, Dondo Mogajane said the country could see around 200 billion rand under-collection in tax revenue, painting the starkest picture yet of the economic impact of the coronavirus on the nation.

Imagine, all that damage--just from the reaction to a typical flu-type outbreak.

 

 

Edited by Sibiriak

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The New York Times obtained an internal report (pdf) from the US government projecting that the US daily case count and death toll will climb this month as states start to open up again, reaching about 3000 deaths per day by June 1st. Here is the graph from the report:

Screenshot_20200504-114728_Drive.jpg

Note that the model underlying these projections has been dramatically underestimating the actual number of reported US deaths (blue dots) since the start of the outbreak. 3000 deaths per day is in the ballpark of the number of daily lives lost to our top two killers (cardiovascular disease and cancer) combined (~3400). 

From the NYT article:

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

--Dean 

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28 minutes ago, Sibiriak said:

Covid-19:    300% increase in fly-tipping reported in the UK

There was a huge increase in reported cow-tipping in the US in the 70's and 80s although it is suspected to be mostly urban legend and the number of cows actually tipped may have been quite small.  Fly-tipping is a staggeringly more challenging sport and it is impressive the Brits are using their Covid-19 down time to master the required Bruce Lee-ish level of physical discipline.

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14 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

Well, if you travel across CA, gas prices were ALWAYS lower in the interior and non-urban places. But in big cities, it's different. Like I say, literally, the price in LA has not dropped at all. I suspect the entire 27% drop reported for CA is in those smaller towns or rural areas where the price of gas was never what it was f.ex. in LA anyhow.

As to "retail" - I'm just going off of what you can buy online. F.ex. I need new jogging shoes at some point, and out of idle curiosity, I looked online, because I read that one of the things where demand just collapsed was precisely in sports related things like running shoes (I think I read it was like 75% drop in sales?). Well, you'd think prices would be super low. No such thing - there was no drop that I could see, since I buy running shoes regularly... I saw no change in prices! And so on for many things I regularly buy on Amazon, and other online stores. Again, maybe I'm always looking for just the things that never drop in price and it's all a big coincidence, but there you go. I was looking to buy a new Oral-B electric toothbrush - zero drop in price (i.e. the same fake "discount" it's always been, no different today than a year ago). I can go on like this for tons and tons of products.

I keep an eye on real estate housing market, and no, prices are not dropping - I guess perhaps it depends on the area? Anyway, I read that cars are supposed to collapse for used cars and eventually (I'd guess?) for new ones... well, I tell you, car parts have not - just bought a new battery, full price, no discount. So again, and again, it seems prices are holding steady. Perhaps it depends on the area and what you're looking for. Or maybe the full adjustment will happen in a few months. We'll see, I guess.

Hi Tom!

One person's observation of the stores in his/her neighborhood doesn't necessarily signify the whole nation.  (1 rat experiment)

  --  Saul

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On 5/2/2020 at 6:28 PM, Todd Allen said:

The CDC's estimates for the previous decade has only 2 years in excess of 50,000 deaths with years ranging from 12,000 to 61,000.

...This is not the flu....

Uhm, yeah, this is part of the flu....  We have been subjected to crazy predictions based on obviously poor modeling, still being posted above, yet there is little acknowledgement how wrong the anointed "experts" have been, or how wrong the political opportunists who imposed marshal law were.

If we compare Covid-19 to a major flu pandemic, like 1957-1958 or 1968-1969, both of which resulted in deaths per capita multiple times higher than what we are experiencing with Covid-19, the imposition of marshal law and the destruction of the Western economies should give a pause to even the most fearful and partisan.

The initial estimates for the 2017-2018 flu were close to 90,000 and it was only this year that the CDC completed the number crunching and came up with 61,000 deaths.  This is not much different than where we are now.

Since the New York death count is so dramatically out of whack with the rest of the country, and since New York's politicians led the "strong leadership" charge and thus have a vital interest in justifying their decision, their numbers should be viewed with great caution until the CDC completes its tally, which will likely to take over a year.

Actually, maybe in addition of people being too scared to go to the hospital with heart attack or stroke symptoms, and dying at home, something like this would explain part of NY's death toll (I wouldn't post anecdotal stuff usually, but since many here have been posting scary random social media speculation, this is just as relevant):
 


 

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1 hour ago, Ron Put said:

yet there is little acknowledgement how wrong the anointed "experts" have been, or how wrong the political opportunists who imposed marshal law were.

This is probably because most people believe the experts are mostly right, evolution is mostly right, the earth is mostly round, ...  What is this "marshal law" thing you keep repeating?  I've never heard of it before.

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