Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[Sibiriak]

Ah, Cyril Wecht,   the celebrity coroner.   I remember this:

Quote

In 1972 Wecht was the first civilian ever given permission to examine the Kennedy assassination evidence.^[23] It was Wecht who first discovered that Kennedy's brain, and all related data in the killing, had gone missing.^[24]

In 1978, he testified before the House Select Committee on Assassinations as the lone dissenter on a nine-member forensic pathology panel re-examining the assassination of John F. Kennedy, which had concurred with the Warren Commission conclusions and single bullet theory. Out of the four official examinations into the Kennedy Assassination, Wecht is the only forensic pathologist who has disagreed with the conclusion that both the single bullet theory and Kennedy's head wounds are mutually consistent.

 

This basic point make sense, and I've said the same thing myself:

Quote

I heartily agree with the need to protect our disabled and elderly populations and individuals who are more susceptible to the ravages of the coronavirus because of chronic respiratory, cardiovascular and other systemic disease processes.

However, I strongly believe that this must be done in a more-focused fashion. Special efforts, time, money and health care services must be devoted to these groups. This can be accomplished without imposing the widespread restrictions that we are experiencing throughout much of the United States and certainly here in Pennsylvania.

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Sibiriak

[corybroo]

If " It was Wecht who first discovered that Kennedy's brain, and all related data in the killing, had gone missing.", what was his disagreement based on?

[corybroo]

Back on topic, two articles of interest from the NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 The day before I got sick, I ran three miles, walked 10 more, then raced up the stairs to my fifth-floor apartment as always, slinging laundry with me as I went.

The second day I was sick, I woke up to what felt like hot tar buried deep in my chest. I could not get a deep breath unless I was on all fours. I’m healthy. I’m a runner. I’m 33 years old.

Here’s what I’m telling my family and my friends: If you can, get an oximeter, a magical little device that measures your pulse and blood oxygen level from your fingertip. If you become sick and your oxygen dips below 95 or you have trouble breathing, go to the emergency room. Don’t wait.

I am one of the lucky ones. I never needed a ventilator. I survived. But 27 days later, I still have lingering pneumonia. I use two inhalers, twice a day. I can’t walk more than a few blocks without stopping.

I want Americans to understand that this virus is making otherwise young, healthy people very, very sick. I want them to know, this is no flu.

I’ve read the above many times now from other victims.  I have yet to read anyone who’s had say it’s just like the flu.  CB

The second article

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/antibody-test-accuracy.html?searchResultPosition=1

Just Because You Test Positive for Antibodies Doesn’t Mean You Have Them

In a population whose infection rate is 5 percent, a test that is 90 percent accurate could deliver a false positive nearly 70 percent of the time.

it means that we’re all at risk of getting infected and spreading the virus, even if we’ve had a positive antibody test.

[Mike41]

6 hours ago, Ron Put said:

The bottom line is that currently, neither the climate change deniers, nor the environmentalists, are really offering a solution to the real problem.
------------------

Their is a solution it’s called a carbon tax. Apply the tax gradually and end up agressive in about 5 years after enacting it. Then Take the revenue from the tax and apply it by subsidizing the renewables and guess what happens? The capitalists will solve the problem. Guaranteed! It does not happen because the political power is with the dirty slop that nature was smart enough to bury a long time ago. The likes of Exxon Mobile and the Koch bro’s etc, keep a carbon tax from happening. What is particularly outrageous and incredibly stupid is that we so easily wrecked the economy over this virus, but Have been unable to do the right thing wrt to a much bigger threat, hugely bigger namely the destruction of our ecosystem by dumping mass amounts of shit Into the atmosphere that Mother Nature had the wisdom to bury!

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mike41

[Gordo]

2 hours ago, corybroo said:

a test that is 90 percent accurate

The latest generation antibody tests claim 100% specificity so no false positives (and as far as I’m concerned false negatives are irrelevant):

https://www.medtechdive.com/news/labcorp-at-home-coronavirus-test-kit-goes-mainstream-as-states-get-11b-for-testing/577748/

Both quest and labcorp have them and make it super easy to order online with no out of pocket cost.

[drewab]

Dr. Rhonda Patrick is back on Joe Rogan with a 3-hour marathon podcast on COVID-19.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_ZJ8YDOX6g

 

[mccoy]

20 hours ago, Ron Put said:

Well, back to garbage in, garbage out.  The expected baseline for the summer is generally much, much lower (we've discussed this way back, too, with regards to your claims about cold exposure health benefits).  Again, we need to wait until real, reliable data is released.  Until then, this should be filed together with your posts of sources predicting 750,000 dead Britons and two million dead Americans by August.

Just imagine what the graph would have looked like during the 1969 flu pandemic, which proportionally killed close to three times more Americans, and over ten times more people worldwide than even the worst Covid-19 excess mortality speculations.  But back then Americans were focused on the Moon landing and Woodstock....

There is little more undisputable than an all-cause excess mortality graph. Deaths in western society are accurately recorded and statistically processed by the national actuarial agencies. The graph posted by Dean simply suggests a huge positive anomaly in the March-May period. The anomaly is overlapped onto the Covid19 outbreak. The temporal association is so strong that denying causation seems logically impossible to me. Even then, we should offer valid reasons for the large anomaly in excess deaths. flu deaths are included in the normalization to past years average, so that is automatically taken care of. Data speak for themselves, as reverend Thomas Bayes used to say. Evidence shows unarguably that this is not just another flu as seen in the latest 5 years.

August  2020 is still to come, and then we'll see if there is an excess FR in New York.

The 1969 H3N2 pandemia should be discussed separately and with official data displayed. It was not the average flu. But I don't see the relevance to the present-day situation, if not to support an anti-lockdown policy, which is again another issue.

Edited May 15, 2020 by mccoy

[Gordo]

Zinc+Hydroxychloroquine once again looking good (when used early in the disease). No value to zinc without a zinc ionophore.

[Todd Allen]

1 hour ago, Gordo said:

Zinc+Hydroxychloroquine once again looking good (when used early in the disease). No value to zinc without a zinc ionophore.

I'd like to see a comparison to zinc plus a diet rich in natural zinc ionophores such as quercetin.

[TomBAvoider]

Chris Masterjohn on zinc ionophores:

https://chrismasterjohnphd.com/covid-19/can-quercetin-or-egcg-reduce-the-risk-of-covid-19-covid-19-updates

Well worth the read, but the bottom line - the odds for zinc and these particular ionophores are very poor, if not zero. YMMV.

Edited May 15, 2020 by TomBAvoider

[Todd Allen]

Panic worthy news?

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Domestic Cats

Quote

With reports of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to domestic cats¹ and to tigers and lions at the Bronx Zoo,⁴ coupled with our data showing the ease of transmission between domestic cats, there is a public health need to recognize and further investigate the potential chain of human–cat–human transmission. This is of particular importance given the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission between family members in households with cats while living under “shelter-in-place” orders. In 2016, an H7N2 influenza outbreak in New York City cat shelters⁵ highlighted the public health implications of cat-to-human transmission to workers in animal shelters. Moreover, cats may be a silent intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, because infected cats may not show any appreciable symptoms that might be recognized by their owners.

 

[TomBAvoider]

I have a cat, and I don't sweat it. But if you work in a shelter, or your cat roams outside, you might be slightly worried.

[Sibiriak]

Quote

  ....investigate the potential chain of human–cat–human transmission.  [...] cats may be a silent intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2...

Reason for concern. More info needed.

[Gordo]

CDC just issued guidance for reopening schools- this should be fun:

[Ron Put]

21 hours ago, Todd Allen said:

Panic worthy news?

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Domestic Cats

 

 

LOL.  Let's spread more paranoia....

That's why they shot all the stray cats and dogs in Moscow a month ago.... 

Maybe Cuomo and Newsom will take the hint and will too show "leadership" again by mandating euthanasia for all cats in NY and CA.  And then ask for the feds to pay for it....

[TomBAvoider]

Looks like statins might be helpful wrt. COVID-19... I guess that's the one time I'm happy that I'm on a statin:

Statins may help older coronavirus patients avoid symptoms; COVID-19 more than respiratory illness

But it's a prelim result in frail old people, so YMMV.

[corybroo]

Apparently meeting the current Navy criteria to be free of the virus does not ensure that you’ve fully recovered and completely purged the virus. 

Five Theodore Roosevelt sailors re-test positive for Covid-19

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/05/15/five-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-re-test-positive-for-covid-19/

Five sailors from the embattled aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt who had previously tested positive for Covid-19 retested positive this week, officials confirmed Friday.

The sailors had previously returned to the ship, which has been sidelined in Guam as leadership works to get the crew free of the novel coronavirus and back to work.

Like the rest of the crew who had come back onboard, the five had been self-monitoring and following social distancing protocols before they tested positive, Navy spokesman Cmdr. Clayton Doss said in a statement.

“These five Sailors developed influenza-like illness symptoms and did the right things reporting to medical for evaluation,” Doss said. “The Sailors were immediately removed from the ship and placed back in isolation, their close contacts were mapped, and they are receiving the required medical care.”

Whether the five afflicted sailors were reinfected or still had the virus after multiple negative tests remains under investigation.

Cory

[Ron Put]

36 minutes ago, corybroo said:

Apparently meeting the current Navy criteria to be free of the virus does not ensure that you’ve fully recovered and completely purged the virus. 

Five Theodore Roosevelt sailors re-test positive for Covid-19....

The horror! The horror!

Obviously, the navy should have been disbanded until there is a cure or a vaccine!  Such lack of leadership!

Now, this is what real leaders do:

California State University cancels in-person classes for fall semester due to coronavirus pandemic

Edited May 16, 2020 by Ron Put

[Mike41]

54 minutes ago, TomBAvoider said:

Looks like statins might be helpful wrt. COVID-19... I guess that's the one time I'm happy that I'm on a statin:

Statins may help older coronavirus patients avoid symptoms; COVID-19 more than respiratory illness

But it's a prelim result in frail old people, so YMMV.

Kinda makes sense if an inflammatory cascade is the primary factor killing people. Statins are notable anti inflammatory drugs.

[Ron Put]

On 5/15/2020 at 9:25 AM, mccoy said:

There is little more undisputable than an all-cause excess mortality graph. Deaths in western society are accurately recorded and statistically processed by the national actuarial agencies. The graph posted by Dean simply suggests a huge positive anomaly in the March-May period. ...Even then, we should offer valid reasons for the large anomaly in excess deaths. flu deaths are included in the normalization to past years average, so that is automatically taken care of. Data speak for themselves, as reverend Thomas Bayes used to say. Evidence shows unarguably that this is not just another flu as seen in the latest 5 years.

August  2020 is still to come, and then we'll see if there is an excess FR in New York.

The 1969 H3N2 pandemia should be discussed separately and with official data displayed. It was not the average flu. But I don't see the relevance to the present-day situation, if not to support an anti-lockdown policy, which is again another issue....

mccoy, nobody is disputing that there is a significant raise in excess deaths from Covid-19. Nobody is disputing that Covid-19 is a relatively deadly pandemic compared to average, although far less deadly than the 1969 flu pandemic and the even worse 1957 pandemic.  And just as with those pandemics, Covid-19 excess mortality not evenly distributed around the world.

The problem is that taking a "March to May" period and comparing it to other March to May periods is grossly misleading, as most other March to May periods have relatively low mortality rates, since the most common transmissible killer, the flu, has generally peaked by the end of February - early March.  I haven't found a graph showing excess deaths during the summer period of 1969, during the flu pandemic which killed 100,000 Americans and 1.200,000 people worldwide, but I expect it to be significantly more horrific than Dean's graph, as the equivalent death toll today would be over 200,000 Americans and 2,500,000 worldwide (taking into account current population).  If you want to take a look a a multi-year graphs and how dramatically same-year periods can differ with respect to excess mortality and the flu, take a look at this multi-decade charts here.

It's also important to note that particularly deadly pandemics appear once every decade, or two or three decades.  If Covid-19 turns out to be such "major" event, and it is not certain, as currently its worldwide death toll is still less than a third of even the 2018 flu season (1,200,000 deaths), it should most certainly be compared to other "major" pandemics, not to relatively mild seasons in between.  Thus the comparison with past major events such as the 1957 and 1968 pandemics is not just relevant, but necessary, to properly formulate and evaluate policies.  Which is something none of the "real leaders" did.

The issue is NOT Covid-19, but the unprecedented political reaction to it and the likely consequences from such reaction.  As someone from Sweden recently quipped, it's not Sweden which is "experimenting" on its citizens, as it is doing what it has always been done in such cases.  It is countries like Italy and Spain, and parts of the US, which are experimenting on their citizens, by imposing universal lockdowns and shutting down their economies, with likely dire consequences.

I already linked above some of the reasons why the NY numbers are likely considerably inflated, so I'd say data speak for themselves, but especially preliminary data speaks depending on how it's collected, edited and presented.  I and many others find plenty of issues how this is done in NY, and I would expect anyone reasonably intelligent to at least question the huge and largely poorly explained differences with most other locales.

I also do not agree that we will know much more by August 2020.  While I am certain that we'll hear plenty, especially from those who have to defend their political decisions and their jobs, this is a much more complex process and it takes more than a year.  Again, the CDC had US flu deaths for 2018 initially at over 90,000, then the semi-official death toll was set at 80,000, and only recently the final official number of 61,000 was presented.  I'd guess the earliest we'll know anything of real value is August of 20121.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Ron Put

[Sibiriak]

On 4/11/2020 at 8:35 AM, Ron Put said:

Now that Covid-19 seems to be looking more like a mild flu...

 

5 hours ago, Ron Put said:

Nobody is disputing that Covid-19 is a relatively deadly pandemic compared to average...

 

Maybe I'm mistaken,  but I detect some slight tweaking in your COVID talking points.  Probably nothing of significance.  Never mind...

[KHashmi317]

Autopsy and CT scan studies about COVID-19. Take home message: co-morbidity and personal (life long) health maintenance is paramount for immunity. Duh!!!

 

[mccoy]

16 hours ago, Ron Put said:

The problem is that taking a "March to May" period and comparing it to other March to May periods is grossly misleading, as most other March to May periods have relatively low mortality rates, since the most common transmissible killer, the flu, has generally peaked by the end of February - early March.

Ron, now I'm probably missing something... The excess mortality curves have been plotted for all months, but the relevant months are March to May since March was the inception of the outbreak in Europe. And again, I'm perhaps missing your point, but even during the flu season, the effects of the flue are normalized, since we divide, for example, the all-cause mortality in June, 2020 by the average all-cause mortality of latest 5 years (from 2015 to 2019). The fact that there was no significant excess mortality in June or Februay 2020 means that the ratio numerator (mortality in 2020) is about equal to the ratio denominator (average mortality from 2015 to 2019). Hence, there was no anomalous flue epidemic in 2020 nor other anomalous event which caused excess mortality. It was all statistically the same as in the past 5 years. Whereas the ratio peaked from March on, that meaning that a significant anomaly occurred, and such anomaly is strictly correlated to the outbreak of COVID19.

[mccoy]

16 hours ago, Ron Put said:

If you want to take a look a a multi-year graphs and how dramatically same-year periods can differ with respect to excess mortality and the flu, take a look at this multi-decade charts here.

I really don't know how these graphs relevant to tropical influenza, although very interesting,  are relevant to our specific discussion on excess mortality in recent years. The conclusions I draw are that in two instances, 1957 and 1968-1969, there was a significant de-trended anomaly in death ratio in Singapore. Maybe we can cite 1976, which goes outside the confidence interval and, to a much lesser extent, 1997. The vertical scale of the lower graph is 6 times smaller than the same scale of the upper graph, so the anomalies look larger, but are not so huge as 1957 and 1968-1969. but again, I'm missing the relevance to our discussion.

Edited May 17, 2020 by mccoy

[mccoy]

16 hours ago, Ron Put said:

it should most certainly be compared to other "major" pandemics, not to relatively mild seasons in between.  Thus the comparison with past major events such as the 1957 and 1968 pandemics is not just relevant, but necessary, to properly formulate and evaluate policies.  Which is something none of the "real leaders" did.

I beg to dissent to the above. You cannot compare the social, political, economical , technological aspects in 2020 to those of 50+years ago. A political decision must be taken on the basis of the present conditions, which are probably different for every single state or region.