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Gordo

Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

Covid-19 Vaccine Survey  

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Lasting Covid damage in a lot of people seems to be real.

 

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, said about 600,000 people have some sort of post-Coronavirus illness

https://www.ibtimes.sg/long-covid-run-man-who-tested-positive-coronavirus-march-says-6-months-still-unwell-51455

 

45% of of a group of 26 competitive athletes show either current myocarditis or evidence of prior heart injury.

Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Findings in Competitive Athletes Recovering From COVID-19 Infection

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770645

 

Redefining Covid-19: Months after infection, patients report breathing difficulty, excessive fatigue

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/13/health/long-haul-covid-fatigue-breathing-wellness/index.html

 

74% of hospitalized patients reporting continuing symptoms after 12 weeks

Patient outcomes after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and implications for follow-up; results from a prospective UK cohort.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173526v1

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Cases in some countries seem to be taking off again, kind of a 3rd wave. Some countries like israel and Spain are now at per-capita case loads higher than the US peak.

 

Israel heads to a second lockdown as coronavirus cases soar

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-heads-to-a-second-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-soar/2020/09/13/4f473fe6-f5a7-11ea-85f7-5941188a98cd_story.html

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On 9/13/2020 at 3:42 PM, corybroo said:

A positive result from the precautions taken for covid-19   The southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020

 

image.png.fe3a25ab466b8c43f64e9db0ccae0629.png

Wouldn't it be amazing if we wiped out the flu?  The irony here though is that all those people that would have died from the flu are now likely to skew the stats for coronavirus.

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On 9/15/2020 at 6:00 AM, Gordo said:

Wouldn't it be amazing if we wiped out the flu?  The irony here though is that all those people that would have died from the flu are now likely to skew the stats for coronavirus.

Unfortunately, viruses don't really get "wiped out" by temporary lockdowns.  When restrictions are lifted, they come back to run their course.  Just as Tegnell and a number of other epidemiologists pointed out from the start, but were drowned out by the hysteria and political propaganda:

Sweden spared European surge as coronavirus infections stay low

 

As we are getting more evidence that this coronavirus likely circulated among world populations considerably earlier than assumed, it lends further support to studies like the one out of Pennsylvania, which claimed that the initial wave of infections peaked in mid-March and the number of infected was 25-30 times greater than officially acknowledged (the CDC recently adjusted its own estimate to 24 times greater). This also means that the mortality rate is rather similar to that of the flu, despite the crazy way Covid-19 deaths are counted.  As Michael Levitt and others point out, if flu and common cold deaths were counted as Covid-19 deaths are, the toll would be fairly similar.

COVID-19 may have been in Los Angeles as early as last December, UCLA-led study suggests


All this makes the lockdowns rolling out across the Western world in late March and April look idiotic, as they crashed the economies of the liberal democracies for no good reason. Yet in the "progressive" US states the authorities are still forcing everyone to wear masks outdoors, the media is still spreading fear, and businesses are still forced to stay closed. My guess is that the drunk Left will try to maintain this until the election, reason and the economy be damned, as fear wins elections over almost everything else.

FOUR STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT COVID-19

First: across all countries and U.S. states that we study, the growth rates of daily deaths from COVID-19 fell from a wide range of initially high levels to levels close to zero within 20-30 days after each region experienced 25 cumulative deaths. Second: after this initial period, growth rates of daily deaths have hovered around zero or below everywhere in the world. Third: the cross section standard deviation of growth rates of daily deaths across locations fell very rapidly in the first 10 days of the epidemic and has remained at a relatively low level since then. Fourth: when interpreted through a range of epidemiological models, these first three facts about the growth rate of COVID deaths imply that both the effective reproduction numbers and transmission rates of COVID-19 fell from widely dispersed initial levels and the effective reproduction number has hovered around one after the first 30 days of the epidemic virtually everywhere in the world. We argue that failing to account for these four stylized facts may result in overstating the importance of policy mandated NPIs for shaping the progression of this deadly pandemic.

 

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On 9/12/2020 at 2:05 PM, BrianA said:

Looks like some long term neurological damage in 55% of Covid-recovered individuals in this study from China.

It baffles me how so many continue to believe that this coronavirus is somehow dramatically different from other viruses.  The fact is that similar effects are observed in other viral infections, both from corona and influenza viruses -- do a search.  Heck, a good number of deadly cancers are caused by a virus.

I understand why scientists may try to confirm that this in the case with this coronavirus, I can also understand the click-bait headlines such confirmations generate.  But do we have to get every single one pasted here too?

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23 hours ago, Ron Put said:

[snip]

Second: after this initial period, growth rates of daily deaths have hovered around zero or below everywhere in the world. 

I missed the headlines on the daily deaths being below zero anywhere in world.  Would you provide documentation?  😉

Where did rates hover around zero, here's the latest graph I've seen for the US   https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

image.png.27c38faf33aee7f66664bcfcc625323f.png

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29 minutes ago, corybroo said:

I missed the headlines on the daily deaths being below zero anywhere in world.  Would you provide documentation?  😉

Where did rates hover around zero, here's the latest graph I've seen for the US  ...

You didn't miss the headlines.  More of a reading comprehension issue....

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Why COVID-19 is more deadly in people with obesity—even if they’re young

 

 
Quote
This spring, after days of flu-like symptoms and fever, a man arrived at the emergency room at the University of Vermont Medical Center. He was young—in his late 30s—and adored his wife and small children. And he had been healthy, logging endless hours running his own small business, except for one thing:  He had severe obesity. Now, he had tested positive for COVID-19 and was increasingly short of breath.

He was admitted directly to the intensive care unit (ICU) and was on a ventilator within hours. Two weeks later, he died.

He was a young, healthy, hardworking guy,” recalls MaryEllen Antkowiak, a pulmonary critical care physician who is medical director of the hospital’s ICU.

What?  Someone can be both severely obese and healthy at the same time?   (Cf. the often-invoked notion of "metabolically healthy obesity.")

Whatever... read on if you are interested (likely you arn't)  in the  specific mechanisms  by which obesity exacerbates COVID-19.

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Coronavirus vaccine: Why it's important to know what's in the placebo

…in the COVID-19 vaccine developed by the University of Oxford, the control group receives a meningitis and septicaemia vaccine as a placebo.

The benefit of using an actual vaccine as the placebo control is that it will cause a similar reaction at the site of the injection as the COVID-19 vaccine, such as muscle pain and soreness. This prevents patients from knowing whether they are getting the placebo or the real treatment. 

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If Sweden has herd immunity which some docs are claiming: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/

this would be rather important to know. I hope researchers are conducting a study to test random samples of people for antibodies and Covid specific T-cells so we can quickly settle this important debate.  There is an awful lot riding on it.

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Neurological consequences of COVID-19: The 'Silent Wave'

scientists are still learning how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is able to invade the brain and central nervous system, the fact that it's getting in there is clear

In a review paper published today, researchers put spotlight on the potential long-term neurological consequences of COVID-19, dubbing it the 'silent wave'.

The researchers report that neurological symptoms in people infected with the virus have ranged from severe, such as brain hypoxia (lack of oxygen), to more common symptoms such as loss of smell.

[The hypoxia could be the result of the excessive clotting seen in covid-19 patient.   CB]

"We found that loss of smell or reduced smell was on average reported in three out of four people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While on the surface this symptom can appear as little cause for concern, it actually tells us … that there's acute inflammation in the olfactory system responsible for smell," 

Inflammation is understood to play a major role in the pathogenesis of neurogenerative disease and has been particularly well studied in Parkinson's.

We believe that loss of smell presents a new way forward in detecting someone's risk of developing Parkinson's disease early. Armed with the knowledge that loss of smell presents in around 90% of people in the early stages of Parkinson's disease and a decade ahead of motor symptoms, we feel we are on the right track

[Comments:  When I first read this, I wondered if it were some Parkinson researchers hoping for better funding by tying their work to covid-19.  However, a web search turned up other researchers pursuing such a link.  COVID-19 and selective vulnerability to Parkinson's disease  COVID-19 and possible links with Parkinson’s disease and parkinsonism: from bench to bedside   and  COVID-19 Exacerbates Some Parkinson’s Symptoms, Study Finds    CB]

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We looked at every confirmed COVID-19 case in Canada. Here's what we found
CBC News analyzed data on all confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected by Public Health Agency of Canada
Dave Seglins, Andreas Wesley, Roberto Rocha · CBC News · Posted: Sep 23, 2020
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/public-health-agency-of-canada-covid-19-statistics-1.5733069

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7 hours ago, corybroo said:

scientists are still learning how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is able to invade the brain and central nervous system, the fact that it's getting in there is clear

In a review paper published today, researchers put spotlight on the potential long-term neurological consequences of COVID-19, dubbing it the 'silent wave'.

Yeah, just as clear as it is that most commonly circulating viruses behave in a very similar manner, as repeatedly pointed out.  Another clickbait headline to scare those who are ignorant and would shrug off the flu and the common cold, but will hide under the bed at the mention of Covid-19. (Sigh.)

Here is an example related to a common influenza variant:

H5N1 Influenza Virus as a Etiological Agent in Parkinson's Disease

"There is a significant literature (mostly based on cases from the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918) that has documented Parkinson’s disease occurring, following exposure to influenza. Viruses (including influenza) have also been proposed to be an etiological agent for PD based on the appearance of otherwise non-explained clusters of parkinsonism. ..."
 

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2 hours ago, Gordo said:

So much for herd immunity in Sweden?

The Telegraph makes this sound ominous, but the fact is that Sweden has a significantly lower number of infections than other European countries that imposed strict lockdowns and still insist on imposing much more restrictive measures.  Also, The Telegraph does not appear to be aware that Belarus is in Europe, unless they have adopted the position that it is already a province of Russia... 🙂

Speaking of infections and mortality rates, Italian scientists long ago noted that they've had unusually mild flu seasons and that a portion of this year's Covid deaths are attributable to that.  Tegnell has made a similar point:

Sweden’s high coronavirus death toll could be linked to mild flu seasons, chief scientist says

“When many people die of the flu in the winter, fewer die in heat waves the following summer. In this case, it was Covid-19 that caused many to die,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, told Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter earlier this week.

’What has now been seen is that the countries that have had a fairly low mortality for influenza in the last two, three years, such as Sweden, [also] have a very high excess mortality in Covid-19,” he said, according to a translation provided in The Times newspaper.

“Those which had a high flu mortality rate, such as Norway, during the last two winters, have fairly low Covid mortality. The same trend has been seen in several countries. This may not be the whole explanation but part of it.”

 

It's worth noting that the average age of death from Covid in the US is higher than the average life expectancy age.  And to keep this in perspective, Michael Levitt from Stanford and others noted that if we counted flu and common cold deaths in the way we attribute Covid-19 death, flu and the common cold would be also responsible for close to 200,000 annual deaths in the US (but in addition killing a lot more people under 20). Not quite the 200 million dead as claimed by Biden recently, but still... 😄

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Ron,

I’d like to ask about a couple of statements in your last post because I’m reading a lot of conflicting information about Sweden.   Which Sweden Do You Want to Believe In?

The Telegraph makes this sound ominous, but the fact is that Sweden has a significantly lower number of infections than other European countries that imposed strict lockdowns and still insist on imposing much more restrictive measures.  

. . .

What has now been seen is that the countries that have had a fairly low mortality for influenza in the last two, three years, such as Sweden, [also] have a very high excess mortality in Covid-19,

 

Does the above mean that Sweden has a low number of infections but a high number of deaths?

 

Ø  It's worth noting that the average age of death from Covid in the US is higher than the average life expectancy age.

I’ll bet this is true for other diseases, like Alzheimer’s that disproportionately afflict the elderly.  With this mortality by age, it’s practically guaranteed.

image.png.1f062f8f25692e74a01e5723437a4884.png

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On 9/23/2020 at 5:59 PM, BrianA said:

What COVID-19 Reinfection Means for Vaccines

Coronaviruses are generally more stable and more predictable than influenza, and reinfections usually are asymptomatic or with mild symptoms.  With or without a vaccine, as larger segments of the population are exposed and gain T-cell immunity, the severity of the outbreaks should subside, as is the pattern with the other coronaviruses in circulation. A vaccine, even a marginally effective one, should further reduce the number of severe infections.

 

On 9/23/2020 at 6:41 PM, corybroo said:

Does the above mean that Sweden has a low number of infections but a high number of deaths?

It means a lot of things, just like it does in NY and in NJ. Some of it has been discussed by Swedish epidemiologists and others but has received limited coverage in the US and elsewhere.

- It means that Sweden has fewer but larger (over 100 residents) elder-care facilities, especially in the Stockholm area.  The neighboring Scandinavian countries have lower population concentrations and apparently the average elder-care facility there has closer to 30 residents.  Obviously, infections are more likely to spread among denser populations. 

(It should be emphasized that mismanagement contributed significantly to the unusually high death toll among New York and New Jersey elder-care residents, where state authorities forced nursing homes to accept active Covid-19 cases, dramatically contributing to the spread and the corresponding high mortality among the most vulnerable. But since this can't be pinned on Trump, the otherwise hysterical media has been largely silent on it, at least until they can figure out how to blame him for it.)

- The mild 2019 and 2020 flu and cold seasons in Sweden and other locations played a part, as already noted.

- The much larger and disproportionately affected minority population in Sweden is a contributing factor as well. Many within such community are poorer and have a higher number of comorbidities, and live within much larger households, and are thus more susceptible to infections and resulting complications. Sweden has by far the largest immigrant population among the Scandinavian countries, as Denmark, Norway and Finland shut their borders tight during the refugee crisis, and all three have been generally hostile to accepting a significant number of migrants.

Then there is the matter of how each country counts and Sweden appears to be particularly generous about how it defines Covid-19 deaths.

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Could Sweden have got it right with covid-19?

Sweden stood alone in Europe in not opting for a severe lockdown when cases of covid-19 began to rise in the spring. As a result, the New York Times called Sweden “a pariah state,” and Sweden has had higher death rates than most countries in Europe, although lower than Britain. But, as I write this on 20 September 2020, the difference in the number of cases in Sweden and most of the rest of Europe is striking. Most countries in Europe have a rapid rise in cases, whereas Sweden does not. Spain, which had one of the most severe lockdowns, has one of the steepest increases.

...

Sweden has concentrated its efforts against the virus on places where it’s most likely to be spread—places of entertainment where many people gather. Those places have strict rules on social distancing. Tegnell is unconvinced by the value of face masks, and they are not much seen in Sweden. Face masks are “more of a statement than actually a measure…Face masks are an easy solution, and I’m deeply distrustful of easy solutions to complex problems.” I’m also wary of simple solutions to complex problems, but I can understand why easy solutions and quick fixes are attractive to politicians.

The same thinking makes Tegnell cautious about the “silver bullet” of a vaccine. The idea that “once vaccine is here we can go back and live as we have always done…[is] “a dangerous message…because it’s not going to be that easy.” ...

 

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I had my second shot of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on Sept 1 at RGH as scheduled.  My next appointment is on Oct. 1 -- that will probably be just a blood drawing.

I'm hoping that they'll officially tell me then if I was injected with saline or vaccine (because of the unusual-for-me side effect of high level fatigue, I believe that I received the vaccine) -- they told me on 9/1 that they'll eventually tell me.  But there is a last, final meeting scheduled, for about 1 year later -- my guess is that's when they'll tell me.

Pfizer has announced that their Phase 3 trials will end in October -- so I might find out sooner.

  --  Saul

P.S.:  Why are Pfizer results coming in sooner than other vaccine trials?  In their announcement, they said that, unlike the other vaccine candidates, they took no US money, but paid for their trials with their own money.  Why?  They explained that, to receive US money, they would have to go through a mountain of paperwork, and have to await various approvals passing through the various govt. departments and agencies -- even at "Warp Speed".  Instead they just sought, and received, approval from the FDA to conduct their trials -- and paid for them on its own.  Asked if they'd lose a lot of money if the vaccine wasn't adequately effective, the answer "we'd lose a lot of money -- but we can afford it".  So, not taking "warp speed" money, was worthwhile to them.

Interesting:  the Trump admin promised/promises to cut govt regulations.  They have, but private industry always moves faster than the govt -- including Trump's somewhat faster moving govt.

  --  Saul

 

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Thanks, Saul. Interesting.

I remember Trump saying a couple of days ago that the Pfizer vaccine will likely be approved in the next few weeks, with J&J coming in a little later. So Pfizer is on track to get its first $2BN from the government contract.
 

From what I read and hear, it seems like the effectiveness would be similar to the flu vaccine, or a little lower.  My guess is the Trump Administration is racing to get this out before the elections, while the Democrats are already seeding doubt among the public:

"Harris had earlier said that she'd be dubious of any vaccine fast-tracked before election day, as the pandemic has made Trump's re-election prospects more difficult.

'I will say that I would not trust Donald Trump and it would have to be a credible source of information that talks about the efficacy and the reliability of whatever he's talking about. I will not take his word for it,' Harris said in an interview with CNN that was released Saturday. 

She also feared members of of the medical community could potentially be silenced. 

'They'll be muzzled, they'll be suppressed, they will be sidelined,' Harris said. 'Because he's looking at an election coming up in less than 60 days and he's grasping to get whatever he can to pretend he has been a leader on this issue when he is not.'"

Ironic, as it was the Left which muzzled any voices dissenting from the crazy predictions which drove the lockdowns and are still driving the masks-outdoors nonsense.

John Ioannidis and Medical Tribalism in the Era of COVID-19

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Estimate of COVID-19 seroprevalence in the US suggests few in the population developed antibodies in the first wave

Researchers from Stanford University explain that patients on dialysis represent an important population to study general COVID-19 seroprevalence [because] patients on dialysis are amenable to random sampling as part of their routine care.

The study follows previous findings from recent seroprevalence studies of highly affected countries and regions (e.g. Wuhan, China, and Spain), which have shown that despite the intense strain on resources and unprecedented excess mortality, rates of seroprevalence at the population level remain low. Other seroprevalence studies of the U.S. population have been restricted to regional hotspots, such as New York City.

 researchers tested the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a randomly selected representative sample of 28,503 patients to provide a nationwide estimate of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the pandemic. 

Researchers estimated the SARS-CoV-2 standardized seroprevalence in the U.S. population to be approximately 9.3%. The authors also found significant regional variation from less than 5% in the western United States to greater than 25% in the northeast.

 

In a separate article in the Economist The covid-19 pandemic is worse than official figures show, it was noted that serosureys “can pick up antibodies against other viruses, inflating their totals—an effect which can differ from place to place, as there are more similar-looking viruses circulating in some regions than in others. They can mislead in the other direction, too. Some tests miss low levels of antibody. Some people (often young ones) fight off the virus without ever producing antibodies and will thus not be recorded as having been infected.

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20 hours ago, corybroo said:

seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies

From what I’ve read t-cell immunity may be just as important if not more so to determining population vulnerabilities. So if they were only looking at SARS-CoV-2 antibodies the study may not be that useful.

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