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Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?


Gordo
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Covid-19 Vaccine Survey  

28 members have voted

  1. 1. Your Vaccine Status is:

    • Fully vaccinated
      23
    • Partially vaccinated
      0
    • Not Vaccinated
      5
  2. 2. If not (fully) vaccinated, your reason(s) for your decision (check all that apply):

    • Not Applicable - I'm vaccinated
      22
    • The rapid vaccine development process makes me distrust them
      3
    • I'm worried about vaccine side effects
      4
    • I don't think I'm at much risk of getting a covid infection
      3
    • I don't believe a covid infection is a serious risk for someone like me
      4
    • I'm waiting until the vaccines receive final approval
      0
    • Fear of needles
      0
    • A medical condition prevents me from getting vaccines
      0
    • Bad reaction to the first dose of the covid vaccine
      0
    • I already had COVID-19 and don't think I need the vaccine for protection
      2
    • Vaccine not available where I live
      0
  3. 3. Are you OK with having your CR forum name included on a list of members who have/haven't chosen to be vaccinated?

    • Yes
      25
    • No
      3


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How much of the anti-vax sentiment is due to the ancient ape parts of people's brains refusing to be "dominated"? Some people can't seem to believe the science or act in their own and society's best interests, if the scientific edicts happen to be issued by the "despicable others":

 

Status Explains Lots

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2021/10/status-explains-lots.html

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On 10/18/2021 at 12:31 PM, corybroo said:

Michigan is reporting K-12 schools without mask mandates in Michigan saw 62% more coronavirus spread

They found

The rate of infection reached an average of about 45 cases per 100,000 students by late September in school districts with mask mandates. 

Virus spread was 62% higher in school districts with no mask rules, where the infection rate averaged 73 cases per 100,000 by late September. 

Since the flu is more dangerous to students does this mean we should have been masking in schools for at least the last 100 years?  Have they done any studies yet to determine the downside to the same students such as possibly brain damage or respiratory problems that result from masking?

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3 hours ago, Gordo said:

Since the flu is more dangerous to students does this mean we should have been masking in schools for at least the last 100 years?  Have they done any studies yet to determine the downside to the same students such as possibly brain damage or respiratory problems that result from masking?

Interesting question.  You're right that the risk of death from flu is greater than from covid for those under 14.  I could not find a comparison of long term consequences by age.

https://freopp.org/comparing-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influenza-by-age-d33a1c76c198

image.png.c5b34a9f56979ce91ba98bcc11ad04e3.png

Since I expect the majority of those young children will have older care givers at home where they almost certainly would not wear a mask, protecting the children, protects the adult and elderly (if grandparents visit).  Several years ago, I read that Japan found the best way to protect the elderly from flu was to vaccinate the school kids.  

Back to answering your question, yes, humans have been afflicted with many terrible contagious diseases for centuries.  Polio, smallpox, malaria are three examples that immediately come to mind.  Could we have dealt with those better?  Yes if we'd known more at the time and had the technology to implement the better approaches.  I think the important thing is to measure results and decide on future action.

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With the FDA approving mix-n-matching vaccine types for the booster, does anyone have links to data on if mixing is better? I thought I had heard several months back that it did show stronger antibody response when mixing. Also any thoughts as to what is the "best" vaccine, I'm considering switching to Moderna for the booster after starting with Pfizer. The Moderna one seems to have a bit stronger side effects, but also more & longer lasting antibodies?

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A study of antibodies in the airways finds vaccination is better than natural immunity, and people who recovered from Covid-19 can still benefit from vaccines.

 

"Antibodies in the airways quickly wane after SARS-CoV-2 infection, but vaccination results in a strong increase in antibody levels, especially after two doses, according to a new study from Karolinska Institutet in Sweden published in the journal JCI Insight. The results suggest that having a second dose of vaccine also after recovering from COVID-19 may be important for protecting against re-infection and to prevent transmission."

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-10-vaccine-doses-boost-antibody-airways.html

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Marginal Revolution Long soccer Covid summarizes a paper, The Long Shadow of an Infection:  Covid-19 and Performance at Work, that tries to estimate workplace productivity effects of Covid-19 by studying soccer players after an infection. 

[The researchers look at] all traceable infections in the elite leagues of Germany and Italy. Relying on a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify negative short- and longer-run performance effects. Relative to their preinfection outcomes, infected players’ performance temporarily drops by more than 6%.  Over half a year later, it is still around 5% lower.

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20 hours ago, Gordo said:

Sadly many countries are surging again with the UK apparently leading the pack...

covid-UK20211020.jpg

Yes.  But the DEATH RATE in England has not been surging.

The takeaway:  yes, totally vaccinated people may get a mild covid infection.  Vaccinated or not, we may also get a cold.

  --  Saul

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Wow, Rand Paul officially vindicated, Fauci did in fact lie to congress. 

NIH acknowledges US funded gain-of-function at Wuhan lab, despite Fauci’s denials

"The National Institutes of Health is now admitting to funding gain-of-function research on bats infected with coronaviruses at a lab in Wuhan, China despite repeated denials from Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. tax dollars were used on the funding." 

Most mainstream news outlets seem to be covering this story, not just Fox

Almost comical now, the NIH is trying to deflect by throwing Eco Health Alliance under the bus as the rouge bad actor:

NIH says grantee failed to report experiment in Wuhan that created a bat virus that made mice sicker

EcoHealth Alliance violated terms of grant, according to letter to House Republicans

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Here's some initial data on mix-n-matching vaccines/boosters. Couple of quirks of this study is it used full dose Moderna booster instead of what I think is a half dose that got final FDA approval, and also these chart antibody booster figures are relative to each vaccine's baseline, not directly comparable to each other. So kind of a useless chart for absolute comparisons. But overall it appears switching brands for your booster may lead to increased antibodies.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v1.full.pdf

 

 

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This could be the greatest advance ever for longevity:

People vaccinated against Covid-19 less likely to die from any cause, study finds

Quote

People who got two doses of Pfizer vaccines were 34% as likely to die of non-coronavirus causes in the following months as unvaccinated people, the study found. People who got two doses of Moderna vaccine were 31% as likely to die as unvaccinated people, and those who got Johnson & Johnson's Janssen vaccine were 54% as likely to die, Xu said

Perhaps getting all 3 vaccines will boost one to escape velocity!

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6 hours ago, AlanPater said:

I suspect, and the article even also makes the suggestion, that it may be a healthy vaccinator effect, although comparison with flu vaccinators is a good approach.

We have reviewed many studies here where health bias might be a factor.  They commonly show benefits of 10% to 20% for a limited number of outcomes such as a reduction in color cancer among those eating high fiber vegetables and less meat.  But this study finds a 69% reduction in ALL CAUSE mortality for the Moderna vaccination.  There is no known intervention, not caloric restriction with optimal nutrition, exercise, cold exposure, sauna, abstaining from alcohol and smoking or any supplement, medication or any other medical therapy that produces such a benefit.  This is the miracle we have been waiting for!

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MMMmm..., speaking of exaggerations, I'm not liking what I'm listening to from domestic news, that is that a third vaccine dose will probably be requested. I've undergone more or less willingly the two practically mandatory shots, but now undergoing a third one is stimulating my rebellious side. They definitely appear to be  going a little overboard with it.

I'm no more following news about vaccines or COVID19. Anyone has an idea about the scientific basis of a third shot? For anyone? In a country where apparently and presently the virus has been successfully contained?

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6 hours ago, mccoy said:

Anyone has an idea about the scientific basis of a third shot?

Antibody levels decrease over time after vaccination.  Third doses of vaccine increased them in transplant recipients.   https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34671774/ 

I will be allowed to get a third dose 6 months after my second and will get it.

I get flu shots every year so why would I not get a booster shot?

Edited by AlanPater
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Ah, OK, thanks I get it, that's to ensure a ready rather than a relatively delayed immune response. That's reasonable for people who desire it or who have problems. May not be so desirable for people with healthy immune systems. Sure, may not guarantee almost total public safety, but in consideration of ever more dwindling seriousness of the pandemic in certain nations, an imposition of a 3rd shot in such states, barring specific situations, to me would sound more worthy of a tyrannical regime. Moreover, That would make me sympathetic to the anti-vaccine groups. Balance is all right. Too much is too much. I voted for apparently worthy and capable politicians, not for epidemiologists to rule the nation.

Edited by mccoy
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Study identifies Sars-CoV-2 variant with a deletion in its genome

Automated gene analyses of SARS-CoV-2 samples consistently miss gene segments in the virus genome that have undergone deletion due to mutations. 

The research team was able to show that a large part of the ORF8 gene segment was missing in the samples it analyzed. This gene region is thought to contribute to delaying defensive reactions in the human body. If it is missing, there is a chance that the virus will become less pathogenic, meaning that it will cause less serious disease. 

"Because only a few gene segments are required to identify a common viral variant, laboratories usually simply accept that they cannot identify other gene segments," says Kalinowski.

 "We found that the commonly used standard software enters placeholders in the gene sequence even when an entire gene segment is not present at all." Then the letter N is written in rows in the gene sequence.

As the virus replicates, these properties are no longer passed on. "In addition, mutations that make the virus more dangerous for humans can no longer develop within such deletions in the genome." According to Kalinowski, such missing gene segments can be one of the reasons why SARS-CoV-2 adapts to humans as its hosts. This would then make the virus more infectious, but, at the same time, less dangerous. "The virus would then become endemic.

The scientists were able to detect the missing nucleotides because—in contrast to the standard PCR testing—they also applied nanopore sequencing. Compared to the usual sequencing machines, these special instruments make it possible to determine longer gene segments. The researchers also added a further function to freely available gene analysis software that correctly detects and labels missing nucleotides in gene sequences. "This was the only way we could determine that part of the ORF8 gene region had disappeared," says Kalinowski.

 

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Personally I'm aiming to keep my antibodies as high as possible via regular boosters, given the neuroinvasive and proven brain-damaging aspects of Sars-COV-2. This new study has determined it can provoke brain protein aggregates in vitro, potentially a precursor to eventual Alzheimer's in the long run. Why risk waiting for your body to ramp up its slower memory-based immune response over a week, and let this thing run amok in the meantime in your nervous system?

 

Suggesting that Viral Infection Can Promote the Spread of Protein Aggregates in the Brain

https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2021/10/suggesting-that-viral-infection-can-promote-the-spread-of-protein-aggregates-in-the-brain/

Highly efficient intercellular spreading of protein misfolding mediated by viral ligand-receptor interactions

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25855-2

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Contracting COVID-19 may provide some immunity. But still get vaccinated, scientists say
Canada and the U.S. don't count previous infection as part of an individual's vaccination status
Mark Gollom · CBC News · Posted: Oct 28, 2021
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/natural-immunity-covid-19-vaccination-1.6223784

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections
Sivan Gazit, Roei Shlezinger, Galit Perez, Roni Lotan, Asaf Peretz, Amir Ben-Tov, Dani Cohen, Khitam Muhsen, Gabriel Chodick, Tal Patalon
medRxiv doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415
Abstract
Background Reports of waning vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 have begun to surface. With that, the comparable long-term protection conferred by previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear.
Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing three groups: (1)SARS-CoV-2-naïve individuals who received a two-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, (2)previously infected individuals who have not been vaccinated, and (3)previously infected and single dose vaccinated individuals. Three multivariate logistic regression models were applied. In all models we evaluated four outcomes: SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic disease, COVID-19-related hospitalization and death. The follow-up period of June 1 to August 14, 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant in Israel.
Results SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant (P<0.001) for symptomatic disease as well. When allowing the infection to occur at any time before vaccination (from March 2020 to February 2021), evidence of waning natural immunity was demonstrated, though SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected.
Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.

Edited by AlanPater
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On 10/27/2021 at 7:56 PM, corybroo said:

Just found this graphical display of the differences

image.png.595c4693b9ca735a8e75dc2add793bed.png

My guess is it’s an association. People who make the effort to get vaccinated are more likely to be those with higher socio-economics, better healthcare, and more inclined not to smoke etc.

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Community Transmission and Viral Load Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2)Variant in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals
Lancet preprint
Anika Singanayagam et al
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3918287
Abstract
Background: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is highly transmissible and spreading globally but a detailed understanding of community transmission risks in highly vaccinated populations is lacking.
Methods: Between September 2020 and August 2021, we recruited 510 community contacts of 422 UK COVID-19 cases to a cohort study. A total of 7194 upper respiratory tract (URT) samples were tested from sequential daily sampling of participants for up to 20 days. We analysed transmission risk by vaccination status for 139 contacts exposed to the Delta variant. We compared viral load (VL) trajectories from fully-vaccinated cases of Delta infection (n=19) with unvaccinated Delta (n=10), Alpha (n=39) and pre-Alpha (n=49) infections.
Findings: The household secondary attack rate for fully-vaccinated contacts exposed to Delta was 19.7% (95%CI:11.6-31.3%), compared with 35.7% (95%CI:16.4-61.2%) in the unvaccinated. One third of infections in Delta-exposed contacts arose from fully-vaccinated index cases and one half of infected contacts were also fully-vaccinated. Seven transmission events between fully vaccinated index-contact pairs occurred. Genomic analysis confirmed transmission pathways between fully-vaccinated individuals within three households. Peak VL was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with Delta variant infection but vaccinated Delta cases saw significantly faster VL decline than unvaccinated Alpha or Delta cases. Within infected individuals, faster VL growth was correlated with higher peak VL and slower decline.
Interpretation: Although vaccination reduces the risk of Delta infection and causes some changes to viral kinetics, fully-vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak URT VL similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts.

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On 10/28/2021 at 2:54 AM, BrianA said:

Personally I'm aiming to keep my antibodies as high as possible via regular boosters, given the neuroinvasive and proven brain-damaging aspects of Sars-COV-2. This new study has determined it can provoke brain protein aggregates in vitro, potentially a precursor to eventual Alzheimer's in the long run. Why risk waiting for your body to ramp up its slower memory-based immune response over a week, and let this thing run amok in the meantime in your nervous system?

 

Good point, but pretty hypothetical. and very precautionary. Who says that the virus will ravage the central nervous system while the body will naturally build up the specific antibodies? Is the risk different in different people? May the risk of a third vaccination be higher than the risk of a more delayed immune response in healthy people?

Annual flu vaccines are different in that they target different variants. The third SARSCOV2 booster shot, AFAIK, is not specific against a new variant.

To me, it still appears a personal and individual choice, not very much scientifically based. 

Edited by mccoy
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