Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[Matt]

Coronavirus Cross Immunity 18 Years After Infection with SARS-COV-1 This small but important study shows that SARS-COV-1 infection created memory cells that are activated after 18 years.

[Matt]

Antibody response 18 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals

Unvaccinated recovered individuals were found to test positive for anti-S-RBD antibodies 18 months post-infection. No cases of reinfection were reported in these individuals despite the emergence of multiple mutant strains that brought about several waves of infection. Most recovered individuals also tested positive for anti-NCP antibodies at 18 months post-infection.

Therefore, the current study demonstrates that immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2 infection lasted longer as compared to vaccination. Although the antibodies are boosted significantly post-vaccination, this response is short-lived.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220124/Antibody-response-18-months-after-SARS-CoV-2-infection-in-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-individuals.aspx

[Matt]

My brother (triple vaccinated) started having night sweats last night... I suspected COVID and asked him to do a test... and yup, it's positive on the lateral flow test. We live in the same house as well, so I've probably already been exposed. I did a lateral flow test, but it was still negative after 25 minutes waiting. Hopefully I can avoid it.

[Saul]

Hi Matt!

What vaccine(s) did your triply vaccinated brother take?

Hope he feels OK.

  --  Saul

 

[AlanPater]

On 1/31/2022 at 12:24 PM, Matt said:

Therefore, the current study demonstrates that immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2 infection lasted longer as compared to vaccination. Although the antibodies are boosted significantly post-vaccination, this response is short-lived.


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220124/Antibody-response-18-months-after-SARS-CoV-2-infection-in-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-individuals.aspx

Rather than studies of antibodies, I found the below study was more important:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220124/Antibody-response-18-months-after-SARS-CoV-2-infection-in-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-individuals.aspx

Edited February 2, 2022 by AlanPater

[Matt]

7 hours ago, Saul said:

Hi Matt!

What vaccine(s) did your triply vaccinated brother take?

Hope he feels OK.

  --  Saul

 

I know he had 2 Pfizer shots but I'm not sure about his booster which he got around November.

He seems to be doing okay... He told me he has a fever, night sweats, back pain, stomach issues and a sore throat.

 

I had some weird muscle pains yesterday... they stopped me from sleeping. Not sure if it's a coincidence or what, but they felt strange... Almost as if I had worked out too much and pulled my tendons/muscles and some joint pain (feels similar to reactive arthritis I had 17 years ago after food poison).

I have no other symptoms and don't feel ill. My temperature is still around 35.5. Still testing negative on lateral flow tests as well.

Edited February 2, 2022 by Matt

[Sibiriak]

On 2/1/2022 at 1:24 AM, Matt said:

...immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2 infection lasted longer as compared to vaccination. Although the antibodies are boosted significantly post-vaccination, this response is short-lived.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220124/Antibody-response-18-months-after-SARS-CoV-2-infection-in-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-individuals.aspx

 

5 hours ago, AlanPater said:

Rather than studies of antibodies, I found the below study was more important:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220124/Antibody-response-18-months-after-SARS-CoV-2-infection-in-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-individuals.aspx

 

Alan,  the link you provide is the same as Matt's.

[Matt]

Found a paper this afternoon about Omicron variant and symptoms:

Omicron outbreak at a private gathering in the Faroe Islands, infecting 21 of 33 triple-vaccinated healthcare workers

"The most common symptoms were muscle and joint pain, fatigue, and fever, while the least common symptoms were loss of taste and smell."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.22.21268021v2.full?fbclid=IwAR3a1QtIEljhVNgmVxwAE_STBtUfCezjmGaI52qIUXCoP_qGJoJCDE-OPag

[AlanPater]

Why an Omicron infection alone might not offer the immune boost you'd expect
Early study findings offer 'good news' of stronger immune response post-infection among vaccinated
Lauren Pelley · CBC News · Posted: Feb 03, 2022
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/omicron-immunity-1.6336958
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Limited cross-variant immunity after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant without vaccination.
Suryawanshi RK, et al.
medRxiv. 2022.
PMID: 35075459 Free PMC article.
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron strains are the most globally relevant variants of concern (VOCs). While individuals infected with Delta are at risk to develop severe lung disease 1 , Omicron infection causes less severe disease, mostly upper respiratory symptoms 2,3 . The question arises whether rampant spread of Omicron could lead to mass immunization, accelerating the end of the pandemic. Here we show that infection with Delta, but not Omicron, induces broad immunity in mice. While sera from Omicron-infected mice only neutralize Omicron, sera from Delta-infected mice are broadly effective against Delta and other VOCs, including Omicron. This is not observed with the WA1 ancestral strain, although both WA1 and Delta elicited a highly pro-inflammatory cytokine response and replicated to similar titers in the respiratory tracts and lungs of infected mice as well as in human airway organoids. Pulmonary viral replication, pro-inflammatory cytokine expression, and overall disease progression are markedly reduced with Omicron infection. Analysis of human sera from Omicron and Delta breakthrough cases reveals effective cross-variant neutralization induced by both viruses in vaccinated individuals. Together, our results indicate that Omicron infection enhances preexisting immunity elicited by vaccines, but on its own may not induce broad, cross-neutralizing humoral immunity in unvaccinated individuals.

 

[Matt]

An update...

My brother is recovering well and doesn't feel ill today. 🙂

My recovery... My muscle and joint pains lasted just over 1 day. I had some mild discomfort at the top of my back (did make me a bit anxious!), but it only lasted a few hours and then went away. Oxygen saturation is 97-99 and heart rate has been between 60-75. 

Throughout this, I've not felt ill at all. Haven't developed any fever, no cough, no sore throat, no runny nose. If my brother hadn't become ill, I would never have known it was COVID.

Will get an antibody test in March to see how high the antibodies are. Last time in August it was 80.4 u/mL.

It seems my preexisting immunity from my COVID infection in November 2020 probably helped.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Matt

[BrianA]

Seems the rats in NYC may be breeding the next variant. Possibly.

 

In New York City Sewage, a Mysterious Coronavirus Signal

For the past year, scientists have been looking for the source of strange coronavirus sequences that have appeared in the city’s wastewater.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/health/coronavirus-wastewater-new-york.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DPDm4ZiOQYCoyc-wDGYrBkYdIt3i6GX5peOaQzSeN70uJFekpgVEy5pYGH3pQZJiF_4aSCYlQL5bOfF7Yp7W2tKWCjNOZ0wLD4sU_WPjPrWKPA0iYhJhJioZFiaVGpjXMXlvjPELUlidUv1awgFYk6EWlbHFSCv_fiDhp6ONqMf0ucvlFwA7cFLGmVyd2M6LsAcxFQCkbETh584mU84dBeOrAHLfq1bk5gKIel3-JnWiE_J5ypBpYxW4HVi7xt1LbNoheGw8O3rO4kxbrSFzM2p5B-Jh8NDSvRyQ

[BrianA]

"The idea that herd immunity from widespread Omicron infection will last longer than a few months is a mass delusion propagating in all forms of media. It’s the type of delusion sure to gain traction in a world where we are all absolutely sick and tired of the pandemic. It even ignores reality from three months ago, when Omicron didn’t exist and the idea of us benefitting from infecting everyone was a widely condemned idea."

 

It’s a delusion to think mass spread of Omicron will end the pandemic

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-its-a-delusion-to-think-mass-spread-of-omicron-will-end-the-pandemic/

[BrianA]

"The findings could help explain the memory problems reported by sufferers of "long COVID," though the researchers caution that the study is small -- with data from only 10 patients -- and needs to be replicated by others."

 

Small study finds Alzheimer's-like changes in some COVID patients' brains

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220203122947.htm

[Saul]

2 hours ago, BrianA said:

Seems the rats in NYC may be breeding the next variant. Possibly.

 

In New York City Sewage, a Mysterious Coronavirus Signal

For the past year, scientists have been looking for the source of strange coronavirus sequences that have appeared in the city’s wastewater.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/health/coronavirus-wastewater-new-york.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DPDm4ZiOQYCoyc-wDGYrBkYdIt3i6GX5peOaQzSeN70uJFekpgVEy5pYGH3pQZJiF_4aSCYlQL5bOfF7Yp7W2tKWCjNOZ0wLD4sU_WPjPrWKPA0iYhJhJioZFiaVGpjXMXlvjPELUlidUv1awgFYk6EWlbHFSCv_fiDhp6ONqMf0ucvlFwA7cFLGmVyd2M6LsAcxFQCkbETh584mU84dBeOrAHLfq1bk5gKIel3-JnWiE_J5ypBpYxW4HVi7xt1LbNoheGw8O3rO4kxbrSFzM2p5B-Jh8NDSvRyQ

Coronaviruses are not rare -- they're common.  Is there any reason to think this coronavirus has any significance for humans?  Or to any animals?  There are all kinds of viruses throughout nature (including in NYC sewage).

  --  Saul

[alexthegra8]

6 hours ago, Saul said:

Coronaviruses are not rare -- they're common.  Is there any reason to think this coronavirus has any significance for humans?  Or to any animals?  There are all kinds of viruses throughout nature (including in NYC sewage).

  --  Saul

Speaking of NYC sewage, does anyone remember the movie Mimic? it was a 90s horror movie about cocoon based monsters that lived under the subway : )

[BrianA]

21 hours ago, Saul said:

Coronaviruses are not rare -- they're common.  Is there any reason to think this coronavirus has any significance for humans?  Or to any animals?  There are all kinds of viruses throughout nature (including in NYC sewage). 

  --  Saul

 

Hmm, well since the Omicron variant has shown genetic signs of possibly forming within a rodent prior to jumping to humans, yes I'd say any other new variants kicking around in the NYC rodent population are of interest.

[Saul]

You're assuming the coronaviruses found in some NYC sewage are "variants of Covid19".  Since there are so many Coronaviruses that have nothing to do with Covid-19, that is unlikely.

  --  Saul

 

 

[BrianA]

You should probably read the article I linked to. It was referring specifically to cryptic SARS-CoV-2 lineages, not random coronaviruses. Here's the Nature link as well. By the way, the CDC announced this week they are rolling out a new permanent program of nationwide sewage surveillance for both SARS-CoV-2 and many other diseases, so this is now an established way to track emerging disease in the USA.

 

Tracking cryptic SARS-CoV-2 lineages detected in NYC wastewater

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28246-3

 

CDC unveils its latest weapon in Covid-19 detection: wastewater

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/03/health/cdc-covid-wastewater-detection/index.html

[BrianA]

"An analysis by epidemiologists, economists, ecologists and biologists at 21 institutions finds we could reduce the risks of future pandemics by investing as little as 1/20th of the losses incurred so far from COVID into conservation measures designed to stem the spread of zoonotic viruses from wildlife to humans in the first place."

 

Preventing pandemics costs far less than controlling them

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220204161706.htm

[Saul]

Sounds good.

  --  Saul

[Matt]

Pre-infection deficiency of vitamin D is associated with increased disease severity and mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Patients with vitamin D deficiency (less than 20 ng/mL) were 14 times more likely to have severe or critical case of COVID than those with more than 40 ng/mL.

Strikingly, mortality among patients with sufficient vitamin D levels was 2.3%, in contrast to 25.6% in the vitamin D deficient group.

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/942287

[AlanPater]

2 hours ago, Matt said:

Pre-infection deficiency of vitamin D is associated with increased disease severity and mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Patients with vitamin D deficiency (less than 20 ng/mL) were 14 times more likely to have severe or critical case of COVID than those with more than 40 ng/mL.

Strikingly, mortality among patients with sufficient vitamin D levels was 2.3%, in contrast to 25.6% in the vitamin D deficient group.

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/942287

Getting adequate intakes of vitamins and minerals is important always, but in the study Matt refers to is a retrospective study, only found significant values at very low levels, and they failed to distinguish whether the subjects who got infections got them due to their vitamin levels;

and a recent review reported:

"there is not enough evidence on the association between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 severity and mortality. Therefore, randomized control trials and cohort studies are necessary to test this hypothesis."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32605780/"

[Mike41]

19 hours ago, AlanPater said:

Getting adequate intakes of vitamins and minerals is important always, but in the study Matt refers to is a retrospective study, only found significant values at very low levels, and they failed to distinguish whether the subjects who got infections got them due to their vitamin levels;

and a recent review reported:

"there is not enough evidence on the association between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 severity and mortality. Therefore, randomized control trials and cohort studies are necessary to test this hypothesis."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32605780

https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqac027

and like every other supplement we’ve seen there is a sweet spot. Higher levels of vitamin d are BAD! A lot of people are taking too much of it. This study showed a negative effect for moderately high vitamin d levels wrt Covid.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Mike41

[Gordo]

On 2/3/2022 at 5:22 PM, BrianA said:

It’s a delusion to think mass spread of Omicron will end the pandemic

Yea, seems like immunity doesn't last or protect against Variants that well. Will probably need annual vaccine. Seems a lot like the flu huh? 

Got my 4 free test kits this week. They will probably come in handy eventually. 

[Sibiriak]

4 hours ago, Gordo said:

[Brian:  It’s a delusion to think mass spread of Omicron will end the pandemic. ]

Yea, seems like immunity doesn't last or protect against Variants that well.  Will probably need annual vaccine. Seems a lot like the flu huh?  

How do you define "pandemic"?  Is the flu a pandemic?  For a lot of  people,  Omicron becoming like the flu  would signify the (probable) "end of the  pandemic".    Keep in mind,  the flu kills millions every year and deadly  new variants appear constantly.

From Brian's opinion piece:

Quote

Consider a recent news article  in The New York Times and elsewhere titled “Omicron’s spread could end ‘emergency phase’ of pandemic, world health official says.” The title and leading idea rely upon comments about “plausible hope for stabilization” from the World Health Organization’s European director..."

"Could end ‘emergency phase’ of pandemic",  “plausible hope for stabilization” --   I don't see how  those very cautious assessments are "delusional".    Unless more severe variants appear,  they will likely turn out to be true.

Quote

If we keep approaching every variant as if it will be the last, we will never get out of this.

No one is predicting that Omicron will be the last variant.    And the author never explains what he means by "get out  of this".    Would the appearance of milder/more transmissible variants qualify as "getting out of this"?

Quote

recommendations:  N95 masks for all, sweeping changes to indoor ventilation and filtration, vaccinations and antivirals for the entire world, and measures to actually curb transmission until science can overtake the pace of viral mutation.

Increased N95 mask availability.  Yes.  Increased  global vaccine/treatment availability. Yes.  But "measures to actually curb transmission"?   What measures?  The author, makes sure not to  tell us .      More government mandates?  Lockdowns?  Heightened  authoritarian state surveillance and control?   What??
 

Quote

The reality is we are causing COVID-19 to mutate on a scale never seen before. By allowing the virus to infect much of the world, we are generating trillions upon trillions of viruses.

And yet nowhere in his opinion piece does the author identify the key obstacles to global vaccine availability,  let alone concrete steps to overcome them.  He certainly avoids evaluating the WHO's recommendations:

Quote

In alignment with SAGE and its Working Group on COVID-19 Vaccines, the TAG-CO-VAC  [WHO Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19]  therefore supports urgent and broad access to current COVID-19 vaccines for priority populations worldwide to provide protection against severe disease and death globally and, in the longer term, to mitigate the emergence and impact of new VOCs by reducing the burden of infection.

In practical terms, while some countries may recommend booster doses of vaccine, the immediate priority for the world is accelerating access to the primary vaccination, particularly for groups at greater risk of developing severe disease.[3]

With near- and medium-term supply of the available vaccines, the need for equity in access to vaccines across countries to achieve global public health goals, programmatic considerations including vaccine demand, and evolution of the virus, a vaccination strategy based on repeated booster doses of the original vaccine composition is unlikely to be appropriate or sustainable.

 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Sibiriak