Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[BrianA]

Small updates on the BA.2 variant that is outcompeting Omicron. Currently in Denmark it has reached 90% of recent sequenced cases, and there is a new sub-variant called BA.2_H78Y that is outcompeting the original BA.2. Estimated "R" number is 1.4x the R of Omicron. Lab experiments and tests on hamsters from Japan in a preprint seem to show increased speed of reproduction in cells than Omicron, and also increased lung damage from BA.2 (more in line with Delta-level damage), so it appears it could be more severe than BA.1 for patients with a naive immune response. BA.2 appears able to evade immune response from most prior Sars-CoV-2 infections, even better than BA.1 was able to.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.14.480335v1.full.pdf

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by BrianA

[Matt]

On 2/11/2022 at 1:04 AM, Gordo said:

Yea, seems like immunity doesn't last or protect against Variants that well. Will probably need annual vaccine. Seems a lot like the flu huh? 

Got my 4 free test kits this week. They will probably come in handy eventually. 

How are you doing now since your infection with Omicron?

My experience with Omicron

It was a really weird viral infection for me. It was almost entirely muscle pain, and it was quite annoyingly persistent and painful at times. It felt as if I had stretched and injured my muscles. Like a muscle sprain or something. Mainly around the shoulders, arms, thighs, and hips area. I think it affects tendons and muscles. I found Quercetin and Bromelain to be very helpful. 

I did not experience any of the usual common symptoms though:  Never had a fever, cough, runny nose, or sore throat. My appetite was completely normal and I noticed I started getting a lot hungrier during the infection.

There was also something going on with my upper back but couldn't tell if it was bronchus related or muscle -- although it was quite mild and short-lasting. I was unable to get a positive test from nose or throat with the rapid antigen tests.

Omicron and my family:

-My brother was the first to display symptoms at home (triple vaccinated). Usual symptoms like runny nose, upper chest cold-like symptoms, night sweats, fever (1 night), sore throat, etc. Took about 4-5 days to get a negative antigen result.

My mother had cold-like symptoms with upper chest, mucous, loss of smell and taste, cough (triple vaccinated and previously infected in 2020)

My uncle had similar symptoms as my mum (triple vaccinated and previously infected in 2020). He was the first to tell us he tested positive, so he might've been the person who lead to the rest of us getting it days later.

My grandmother (80 years old, bad COPD and other health issues) has had mild cold-like symptoms: sneezing, coughing, and general upper away symptoms. No fever. (triple vaccinated but no confirmation of previous infection despite my uncle living with her when had it before).

My niece who is about 5-6 had no symptoms but tested positive. 

My other uncle and aunt came here to the house a day prior to my brother getting sick and they ended up testing positive 3 and 5 days later. Both triple vaccinated and were negative on antigen test within 5 days. Both mild illness from what I heard.

My dad had some very mild symptoms but like me did not test positive (previously infected 2020 and triple vaccinated).

Edited February 19, 2022 by Matt

[Saul]

I'm skeptical that the BA-2 variant of Omicron is more severe than the first Omicron -- the "evidence" that that is so, comes from it being more lethal in hamsters.

There is supposed to be evidence that Omicron arose, by the human virus passing to a mouse, and then back to people.  So, if Omicron and BA-2 came from rodents, not a big surprise that they're more deadly in rodents.

Human data is needed -- and, from the article, it appears to be mild in people everywhere except Denmark -- and Denmark hadn't had severe infections before BA-2.

My guess (purely a guess -- my intuition):  BA-2 is probably less sever than the (pretty docile) original Omicron.

It's the normal evolution of pathogenic human (and other animal) viruses to become more contagious and less severe.

  --  Saul

[Ron Put]

7 hours ago, Saul said:

It's the normal evolution of pathogenic human (and other animal) viruses to become more contagious and less severe.

Yep. But watching the nightly news cases ticker tapes and scouring the internets for scary and reposting every scary article or study seems to have become an obsession for about a third of the population, and for a couple of posters here. Some may never move on.

I wish this thread would just die, it has sucked the life out of the hole forum.

[Todd Allen]

14 hours ago, Saul said:

It's the normal evolution of pathogenic human (and other animal) viruses to become more contagious and less severe.

Normal evolution is increasingly irrelevant in the anthropocene.

Virologist Geert Vanden Bossche's pandemic prediction's have been better than most so far.  Here's his latest commentary:

https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/omicron-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing

Quote

The widely held belief that during the course of a pandemic viruses tend to become more infectious but less virulent is a myth—one kept alive by those who don’t understand the evolutionary dynamics of a pandemic.

...

Consequently, it becomes obvious that the continuation of mass vaccination campaigns now increasingly targeting children and focusing on booster shots (or Omicron-specific vaccinations) will result in a significant fraction of the vaccinated population compromising their innate B1a-derived Abs (IgMs).  There can be no doubt that accelerated mass vaccination campaigns followed by booster shots at intervals as short as 4-5 months and complemented by C-19 vaccination of children will lead to a higher incidence of disease in the vaccinated population. Since innate Abs more readily compete with low-affinity, non-neutralizing anti-S Abs, symptoms of Omicron infection in vaccinees are predominantly mild to moderate.  However, the high incidence of disease across a wide variety of vaccinated age groups is likely to drive a massive surge in the population’s anti-Omicron Ab titers. A large peak of anti-(Omicron) S [anti(O)S] seroprevalence could cause high population-level immune pressure on viral infectiousness. However, on a background of high infectious pressure, the heightened S-directed immune pressure exerted by the vaccinated population cannot confer sterilizing immunity. The non-sterilizing immune pressure exerted by the vaccinated population would, therefore, serve as an optimal breeding ground for the selection of variants that are capable of overcoming the S-directed immune pressure placed on Omicron’s infectiousness. Any mutation that changes the physicochemical properties of the virus’ N-terminal domain in ways that strengthen the latter’s interaction with lipid rafts on respiratory epithelial cells would readily facilitate adsorption of viral particles to these cells and mediate fusion of the viral envelope with the target cell membrane such as to allow an alternative route of viral entry into the cell. It is reasonable to assume that the fitness cost of such a change in physicochemical properties is much lower than the one the virus would incur upon selecting and breeding a variant that incorporates a number of immune escape mutations sufficient to avoid neutralization by anti-(O)S Abs while not causing steric hindrance of RBD-ACE-2 receptor interactions.  Clearly, viral entry would likely be expedited by a multitude of naturally acquired Abs that bind to Omicron’s RBD without neutralizing the virus, for hydrophobic sites within the N-terminal domain would now serve as a substitute for RBD to trigger viral entry into epithelial host cells. Enhancement of an alternative mechanism of viral entry as enabled by abundant coating of viral particles by anti-(O)S Abs and strong suppression of CoV-reactive innate Abs is likely to cause an accelerated course of the disease. The overall effect would manifest as an increase in pathogenicity/ virulence of the virus. Such antibody-dependent enhancement or exacerbation of C-19 disease (ADE) in vaccinees could have disastrous consequences, not only in vaccinated children but also in older age groups that are highly vaccinated.

 

[mccoy]

16 hours ago, Saul said:

It's the normal evolution of pathogenic human (and other animal) viruses to become more contagious and less severe.

Virologists other than Van Den Bosche would deny that. Apparently, this phenomenon appears to be purely speculative, since it was observed only in the virus propagated to fight Australian rabbits.

Edited February 19, 2022 by mccoy

[Saul]

2 hours ago, Todd Allen said:

Virologist Geert Vanden Bossche's pandemic prediction's have been better than most so far.

I don't think so -- the opposite.  (But he presents a lot of speculative babble.)

Interestingly, Todd's previous claims coincide with the doctrines of an ultra-religious Orthodox Jewish sect, led by their "Rebbi".  The "Rebbi" believes that taking a dose of the vaccine "injects the person with an infectious agent".

I'm wondering -- Todd, are you a member of that sect?

  --  Saul

[Todd S]

5 hours ago, Todd Allen said:

Virologist Geert Vanden Bossche's pandemic prediction's have been better than most so far.  Here's his latest commentary:

https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/omicron-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing

“The ongoing mass vaccination campaigns are a threat to our human species. Vaccine mandates and immunologic discrimination are, therefore, a crime against humanity and will undoubtedly be referred to as such in the history of mankind.”

Todd A.,

Have you found any substantial peer-review support for Geert's theories?  I find it hard to see how what he is doing can be effective in helping humanity.

 

[Matt]

Isn't what he's talking about been shown in multiple studies already with regards to vaccines that do not prevent transmission? Did anyone bother to watch the talk I shared a few months ago (it's from 2016 and by a person who is in favor of COVID vaccines).

Vaccines alter the immune landscape experienced by pathogens, and hence their evolution, by targeting subsets of strains in a population, reducing the number of fully susceptible individuals, and creating or expanding classes of semi-immune hosts. The great success of vaccination against the acute childhood occurred without being undermined by pathogen evolution, but those diseases were easy targets: natural immunity was evolution-proof; all vaccination needed to do was to induce something very similar. Pathogens now under assault by vaccination are different: their natural infections induce leaky, often strain-specific immunity that usually wanes. Vaccines against these diseases will induce immunity to which natural selection has already found solutions. Evolutionary analysis is particularly warranted where vaccines are leaky, target subsets of strains or virulence determinants, involve novel technologies, or relax selection against virulence. Vaccination has been a great benefit. Continuing past successes requires evolutionary considerations at all stages of vaccine design and implementation.

Andrew Read, Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences & Director, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, visits the ASU Center of Evolution, Medicine and Public Health, to lecture on the subject of Pathogen evolution in a vaccinated World.

 

[AlanPater]

15 hours ago, Ron Put said:

I wish this thread would just die, it has sucked the life out of the hole forum.

I would suggest that you and your ilk have put a "hole" in scientific accuracy on this issue.

[BrianA]

"mild" Omicron confirmed to have killed more people in USA now than Delta. I guess "mild" depends on your definition.

 

Omicron wave accounts for more U.S. deaths than delta surge

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/omicron-wave-accounts-for-more-u-s-deaths-than-delta-surge/

[BrianA]

BA.2 in lab tests (not peer reviewed yet) may be resistant to the last monoclonal antibody treatment we have working currently against Omicron.

 

Do Covid treatments work against omicron subvariant? Scientists keep close watch

Early data suggests the omicron subvariant has the ability to overpower some Covid-19 treatments.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/omicron-subvariant-covid-treatments-work-ba2-scientists-keep-close-wat-rcna16836

[BrianA]

In the 3rd year of the 1918 flu, after everyone gave up fighting it and all restrictions and news coverage faded away, a deadly 4th wave struck many places in the USA, killing more people than in the 1st and 3rd waves. No one wanted to hear about it then, and most folks don't now. History, anyone?

 

The 1918 flu didn’t end in 1918. Here’s what its third year can teach us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/02/06/1918-flu-fourth-wave/

[Saul]

13 hours ago, AlanPater said:

I would suggest that you and your ilk have put a "hole" in scientific accuracy on this issue.

I'm very skeptical about the information in the Seattle Times article; there are no references to sources other than news reporters.

(When people enter a hospital with a serious condition -- such as cancer, or severe cardio disease -- and also have a mild Covid infection, death is sometimes listed as "death from Covid".)

Brian, get vaccinated (if not already).

  --  Saul

 

 

[mccoy]

On 2/19/2022 at 9:04 PM, Saul said:

I don't think so -- the opposite.

But then you should cite some real examples.

I can think about the deadliest viruses known: rabies and ebola. Apparently, they didn't become less pathogenic. Rabies killed and will kill 100% of the infected, but it progresses slowly and is strangely affected by later vaccination.

Ebola killed and will kill on the average about 50% of infected and has not been observed to diminish its pathogenicity that I know.

[corybroo]

5 hours ago, Saul said:

I'm very skeptical about the information in the Seattle Times article; there are no references to sources other than news reporters.

(When people enter a hospital with a serious condition -- such as cancer, or severe cardio disease -- and also have a mild Covid infection, death is sometimes listed as "death from Covid".)

May I ask for your references for your second statement?

Contrary examples would include the following quotes from America’s elected coroners are too often a public-health liability

“Carl Schmidt, medical examiner for Wayne County in Michigan, says his office decided that if they did not see symptoms of acute respiratory distress, coupled with an inflammatory response signalling a viral infection, the death would not be attributed to covid-19. Others were less meticulous. Dr Schmidt recalls one coroner giving a presentation arguing that conducting covid-19 autopsies was unnecessary.”

“One coroner in Missouri candidly told the press that he strikes covid-19 from the death certificates at the request of the family of the deceased.”

The article concludes by noting that excess deaths may a better for broad counts.

[Saul]

37 minutes ago, corybroo said:

“Carl Schmidt, medical examiner for Wayne County in Michigan, says his office decided that if they did not see symptoms of acute respiratory distress, coupled with an inflammatory response signalling a viral infection, the death would not be attributed to covid-19.

Kudos for Carl Schmidt.

  --  Saul

[AlanPater]

6 hours ago, mccoy said:

I can think about the deadliest viruses known: rabies and ebola. Apparently, they didn't become less pathogenic. Rabies killed and will kill 100% of the infected, but it progresses slowly and is strangely affected by later vaccination.

Ebola killed and will kill on the average about 50% of infected and has not been observed to diminish its pathogenicity that I know.

These viruses are more different than night and day.  How about comparing the virus causing COVID-19 with its cousins causing colds?

Mechanisms of transmission of viruses matter greatly in how deadly they are on a population scale.  Rabies virus transmits via animal animal bites; Ebola virus transmits via body fluids; COVID-19 virus transmits usually directly from one person to another through the air and is therefore much more widespread.

When relatively less deadly, in Europeans, viruses such as flu were introduced to North and South Americans, they caused mass casualties in the Indigenous population, only to become more benign in later years.  In this case, people developed relative immunity, even for infants not previously exposed to the virus.

[mccoy]

13 hours ago, AlanPater said:

only to become more benign in later years. 

Is that ascertained? Citations? they may have become less deadly/pathogenic just because of acquired immunity from in the aboriginal populations and not because of inherent changes in the viral framework/proteins

[AlanPater]

14 minutes ago, mccoy said:

Is that ascertained? Citations? they may have become less deadly/pathogenic just because of acquired immunity from in the aboriginal populations and not because of inherent changes in the viral framework/proteins

Yes, you are correct.  But rabies does not pertain for comparison, since it is acquired from animals, and you get it, you die.  If rabies had been introduced de novo into North America, it would still be: You get it; you die.

[Gordo]

On 2/19/2022 at 10:54 PM, BrianA said:

The 1918 flu didn’t end in 1918.

You can shorten that to "The 1918 flu didn’t end." It kills hundreds of thousands every year (source) and note they didn't have vaccines back then, so this antivaxer idea that not using vaccines is better doesn't get any support from that pandemic.  But in both cases, they probably won't/can't ever really "end".

 

On 2/18/2022 at 9:06 PM, Matt said:

How are you doing now since your infection with Omicron?

Matt - thanks for sharing your family's experiences with covid infection.  As far as I can tell, I have no lingering symptoms.  I did have a lingering cough for several WEEKS but that is finally gone.  I have done lots of outdoor labor, biking, exercise and don't feel any sort of abnormal fatigue or breathlessness, etc.  I'm pretty sure the rest of my family (wife and 2 kids) were exposed when I had it, but none of them had any significant symptoms (maybe a runny nose for a day or two?).  Like you, I was very hungry when I was symptomatic, I also had body aches but that only lasted for 1 day (along with fever), after that one bad day, there was a day where I had some chest pains, after that all I had was a sore throat and significant fatigue that lasted for several more days (4-5) but that was it.  No loss of smell/taste.  I got tons of sleep and took zinc, K2, Green tea extract, C, D, Quercetin, and cordyceps/reishi mushrooms.

 

On 2/19/2022 at 12:39 PM, Todd Allen said:

Virologist Geert Vanden Bossche's pandemic prediction

He thinks we should all be taking antiviral drugs instead of vaccines - I wonder what the cumulative side effects of that would be?  I'm guessing worse than the vaccine.  What specific drug does he want everyone to take?  I can't imagine most of the world taking antiviral drugs daily for a year or longer.  I guess there could be some "bonus" consequences to that though, like everyone who had worms getting dewormed (if using ivermectin for example), that might actually benefit a lot of people.

[AlanPater]

On 2/18/2022 at 3:24 PM, BrianA said:

Small updates on the BA.2 variant that is outcompeting Omicron.

Reinfections from Omicron subvariant BA.2 seem rare, study finds, making 'new wave' unlikely
New Danish data on BA.2 is out as subvariant is rising in Canada
Lauren Pelley · CBC News · Posted: Feb 24, 2022
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/reinfections-from-omicron-subvariant-ba-2-seem-rare-study-finds-making-new-wave-unlikely-1.6361756

[Sibiriak]

Titanium dioxide particles frequently present in face masks intended for general use require regulatory control

[AlanPater]

Sweden's no-lockdown COVID strategy was broadly correct, commission suggests
However, review commission also finds the country's response to the crisis was slow and sometimes confused
Thomson Reuters · Posted: Feb 25, 2022

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sweden-report-coronavirus-1.6364154

[corybroo]

The Economist has an article about an anomaly in the covid-19 death counts for some countries. 

Are some countries faking their covid-19 death counts?

While a simple Poisson distribution has the property that the mean of the distribution is equal to its variance, the number of people who die of covid has some correlation day to day.  Fx, superspreader events can cause a spike.  The result is that the distribution of deaths should be “overdispersed”, i.e. the variance should be greater than the mean.  The vast majority of countries show overdispersion in their death counts.  N.B., there could be under or over counting but the overdispersion suggests the data is not being deliberately modified.   

Seventeen countries stood out because their data does not show "overdispersion".  Probably not coincidentally, they have neither a functioning democracy nor a free press.

This is a statistical smoking gun. “It seems reasonable to conclude that there’s no way these are independent observations,” says David Steinsaltz, a professor of statistics at the University of Oxford.

The article ends with this specific example.

The Russian numbers offer an example of abnormal neatness. In August 2021 daily death tallies went no lower than 746 and no higher than 799. Russia’s invariant numbers continued into the first week of September, ranging from 792 to 799. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that such a low-variation week would occur by chance once every 2,747 years.