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Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?


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Of course, the pandemic is over.

For example, here at the University of Rochester -- as at many other Universities -- it is claimed that the lethality of Covid (now almost entirely from Omicron 4/5) is less than that of flu.

IMO, Covid-19 has followed the path that I predicted from the start -- from a potentially deadly pathogen that was somewhat contagious, to a much milder condition that is much more contagious.  That's the normal progress of almost all pathogens.

Such makes the virus more "fit" -- sustaining more copies of itself in more people.

  --  Saul

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14 hours ago, Ron Put said:

Can you point to how you can tell? A quick search finds the study, but I can't get access easily, and I have not seen anything about taking age into account.


In that NBC news article, there is a link to the paper near the top:






In the Results section of the paper it mentions:


"Our approach estimates “excess death rates” as the percent increase in deaths above
expected deaths that are due to seasonality, geographic location, party affiliation, and age.
These expected deaths are calculated non-parametrically using 2019 data by aggregating
deaths into counts Nmcpa,2019 at the month-by-county-by-party-by-age-bin level. The age
bins used were 25-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85-and-older"

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Reading between the lines, I'm getting the vibe China is gradually losing control of zero covid. It appears at this huge 200k worker Foxconn factory complex, an outbreak has been building for 2+ weeks, and now they had food issues and worker rebellions to the point some workers packed up their stuff and left on foot. The home cities of all these migrants now may be receiving infected incoming folks.


Chinese cities brace for wave of Foxconn workers from COVID-hit Zhengzhou


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7 hours ago, BrianA said:

 I'm getting the vibe China is gradually losing control of zero covid. 

Amazing it has gone on this long, it seems some of the communist overlords are drunk with power. In some places they hold you hostage until you pay to be released.


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Again, it highly amazes me that Xi Jinping is allowing it all, he looked like the incarnation of cunning, instead he's now showing mere foolishness, jeopardizing economy for a nonsense.

The only answer I have is that zero-covid has become a party ideology, and in China (and communist-leftist factions everywhere in the world) party ideologies supersede everything else. It happened in our western countries.

Out there it's amplified orders of magnitude.

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From my understanding of what happened at their recent party congress gathering, Xi has now gotten rid of pretty much all remaining folks from previous administrations, leaving himself only surrounded by yes-men. So it might take a while for someone to get up the guts to clue him in. This is a well known failure mode of dictatorships, etc, not surprising.

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9 hours ago, BrianA said:

This is a well known failure mode of dictatorships, etc, not surprising.

Brian, your analysis is a plausible one, maybe I've been overestimating Xi believing he was above yesmanship, on the other side you cannot rule 1500 million people on your own and he chose his assistants based upon a rigid party ideology.

So, a mix of yesmanship and rigid ideology seems to be a reasonable (sad for the people) explanation.


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The reduction in lifespan of Americans seems to be continuing, despite the pandemic "being over". In the 3rd quarter financial results conference call for Service Corporation International (the largest operator of funeral homes in the USA), they reported a 15% surge in cases compared to the same time in 2019, and they seem a little stumped by it since they were told by the President of the USA that the pandemic "is over".



transcript link: https://investors.sci-corp.com/download/SCI+Q3+22+Transcript.pdf


"And so what we're trying to identify is, we know what is COVID and we can carve that out
and we believe that's very diminished now and should continue to diminish. And you
would -- so what we would have expected is, why wouldn't we go back towards, let's say,
a 2019 level, maybe you get a percent or so growth of 2019, I would expect that. So that
would be a reasonable level that we think would stabilize. And that's kind of what we
anticipated. And I guess what I'm telling you look at the call -- that's why we compare back
to 2019. What we're telling you is, the third quarter of this year, we did 15% more calls than
we did in the third quarter of 2019. That is not what anybody would have anticipated and
that has just a very de minimis amount of COVID deaths in it."


Their guess in their call as to why this would still be happening is due to mental health issues, and missed preventative medical screenings.


But what if what we're seeing is actually an ongoing health impact from previous covid infections, which may have taken a toll on the immune system? That is the hypothesis of some immunologists such a Dr. Anthony Leonardi who has been arguing since 2020 that covid would likely lead to permanently damaged/exhausted T cells, particularly in individuals over age 50, and who continue to be reinfected.


An overview of his thinking is in this article from today:


What If COVID Reinfections Wear Down Our Immunity?



So, if it turns out to be the case that more and more covid reinfections are leading to worn down/exhausted immune systems, particular in people over age 50, we could be in for a long term downterm in US expected lifespan.


In other news, for some mysterious reason folks this year are having more trouble than usual fighting off run of the mill flu and RSV infections, leading to more hospitalization than normal. I wonder why?


US hospitals are so overloaded that one ER called 911 on itself


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China easing some zero covid rules, as some folks start to fight/protest more.


China eases some quarantine for travelers even as cases rise



"China has limited its contact tracing system that saw hundreds of millions of people forced into quarantine and it removed other measures that left many people isolated at home for weeks"


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"So why are so many kids experiencing severe illness from seasonal viruses?

Emerging evidence suggests COVID-19 may be to blame, Furness says.

“COVID, like many viruses, harms the immune system as part of its strategy,” he said.


“The leading hypothesis now is that COVID is harming the immune system. To what extent and how permanently, these are things we don’t know. But that’s what the data seem to be telling us and it’s something we should be really concerned about.”


‘Immunity debt’: Why experts say this new term promotes COVID-19 misinformation


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Statistics show Sweden's "let it rip" plan didn't work out in the end.


"It makes most sense to compare Sweden with its Scandinavian neighbors. Now, two years later, Sweden has a total mortality rate (per capita) almost double that of Finland and Denmark, and more than double that of Norway."


Remember the infamous Swedish pandemic model? Turns out, it really didn’t work


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Australia’s life expectancy has risen to third-highest in the world

A child born in Australia today is expected to live until the age of 84.3, giving the nation the third-highest life expectancy in the world behind Monaco and Japan. The increase is due to its early covid-19 containment and high-performing healthcare system


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So it turns out if you want your political party to win close races, maybe don't encourage your voters to do things that kill them at a faster pace than the competing parties' voters:


“To take just one example: between January 2021 and this month, 9,400 people in Nevada died of Covid. The data suggests that the majority of these people would have been Republican voters. Keep that number in mind.”


Covid Deaths Probably Cost Republicans the Midterms


Edited by BrianA
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  • 2 weeks later...

Good news, this LED breakthrough for the UVC spectrum should lead to economical Far-UVC germicidal lighting a few years from now. The issue with this lighting currently is that while it is great at killing viruses in the air, it's too expensive to install for most uses.


Scientists demonstrate continuous-wave lasing of deep-ultraviolet laser diode at room temperature


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