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On 3/11/2023 at 12:13 AM, Ron Put said:

did you even look at the OECD data I posted?

Yes I did and went back for a second look.

One of the things I saw there was this graph which supports the claim that the Swedish model was better.

image.png.ec27a1942fc879d8e0c1a9428b2a06bc.png

So I dove deeper into the source for the data I cited and found the following:

Where   Type w => weekly

Country

Data until

Type

Official

Excess

std

z

Undercount

Per 100k

Increase

 

Australia

Mar 28, 2021

w

910

−3,700

±1,000

3.6

−10

−2

Sweden

Jun 06, 2021

w

15,000

8,900

±1,100

8.5

0.6

90

10

Most significantly, that data compares the two countries over different time periods and ends before the middle of 2021. 

Since that undercuts my argument, I searched for more current data and found the following:

image.png.3dfecb4224f2a05f78cbec619b3bae90.png

And a couple of neighboring countries:

image.png.12b7ac062f1545f36a858067f4db8293.png

Restricting to over 65's gives this comparison.

The estimated range of excess deaths for Australians over 65

image.png.965618011ccfae78e669a2eccbf06c6c.png

image.png.7a8115f6dc1c39e20bb3bf1d535e0afc.png 

image.png.62aea840e9796342832fcf0297d02372.png

There are two assumptions being made:

1)     Officially published excess death numbers are accurate.

2)     The demographic adjustments are incorrect.  A country with more young people (or one with excessive social security obligations) may be more cavalier about the disease.

Bottom line, although I’m retracting my original numbers as being out of date, finding current data leaves us still with different source numbers (I don’t know why our sources are so different) and thus different conclusions.

image.png

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18 hours ago, corybroo said:

Most significantly, that data compares the two countries over different time periods and ends before the middle of 2021. 

coybroo, thank you for expending the effort to research this. It seems to me that the time periods are the same, as I see in the OECD data tables, and the original article had a cut-off of late 2022 for cumulative excess deaths, as this was the latest confirmed data recently released by Australia -- they seem to be delaying data releases, likely because they expected just such political flack in response.

Australia has an excess of 17& of CVD death over the most recent period, and as this is the number one cause of death in Australia, the numbers are significant. Similarly with cases of dementia, if I recall. While some portion of it is likely due to either Covid, flu or other infectious diseases, or, as some argue, to the mass vaccination mandate with mainly mRNA vaccines, it is most likely due to the fear and extended lockdowns that led to deferred important care.

Even if you take just the last year, Sweden does way better in terms of excess mortality than pretty much every other country in Europe, according to Euromomo. With no lockdowns, no mask mandates and no forced immunizations and destroying the lives of those who's opinions differed.

But I want to come back to a much larger and more important point I have been trying to make: It is incredibly dangerous to democracies when those at the top use the media and institutions to spread fear through propaganda and censorship, and use it to lock up their populations, limit basic civil rights and suppress reasoned debate and dissenting opinions, all based on flimsy assumptions and political zeal advanced through endless emergency powers.




 

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On 3/12/2023 at 7:34 AM, BrianA said:

How the Cochrane Review went wrong. Report questioning COVID masks blows up, prompts apology

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2023/03/10/how-the-cochrane-review-went-wrong-report-questioning-covid-masks-blows-up-prompts-apology.html

At this point, this kind of zealotry should be embarrassing: You are not even bothering to debate the study or point what exactly facts or methodology  you disagree with, instead you just cut and paste an article that does not discuss any details, other than to tell us:

"“When I saw it on Twitter, I rolled my eyes,” said Kate Maddalena, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto who teaches and studies science communication and writing."

And repeatedly call for censorship: "“It’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle once a statement like ‘masks don’t work’ is out there,” said Dr. Joe Vipond, an emergency room doctor in Calgary who co-founded Masks4Canada."

The left initially tried to kill, then delay, then bury the review, and then fell back on op-eds and a few articles short on substance, but full of innuendo and smear. The one above is certainly one of the more moronic and vacuous ones. It's true that the political pressure by the true believers did not result in outright censorship, but it still extracted a Cochran editor clarification that stated: "It would be accurate to say that the review examined whether interventions to promote mask wearing help to slow the spread of respiratory viruses, and that the results were inconclusive."

And while the evidence that masks have no effect is low to moderate, based on the review, this was the accepted view, based on numerous earlier studies, of all major health organizations I know of. Virtually all medical bodies recommended against healthy people wearing masks, until the left in the US used fear to force mask mandates and visually separate the virtuous from the heathens.

But even if we accept that 180 degree turn and accept that the evidence is inconclusive, what part of "inconclusive" is not basis for coercion of others" is so difficult for some to understand?

Free speech, open debate and limits on state coercion against personal rights are at the core of liberal democracies. And they have been increasingly under threat by part of the population, some of whom are simply fearful, some are ignorant, other are zealots, and others opportunists. 

BTW, here is the review:

Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses - Jefferson, T - 2023 | Cochrane Library

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And to drive the point about the cynicism and political opportunism of some in the political class when faced with media "death ticker tapes," here is an interview with the journalist who exposed select communication from Matt Hancock:
 

 

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I remember a time not long ago, when any suggestion of a lab leak was considered a conspiracy theory created by racist, and would get your social media posts taken down or your account banned.

How easily most conformed.

This is a summary of where we are today.
 

 

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Great thread. I haven't read the whole thing but a nice living history. Thanks Ron put for your tireless efforts. I am 100% in agreement with you, at least in the posts I have read. I am a veterinarian and I didn't " trust the science" from the get go. Fauci is not a trustworthy character (bureaucrat, never practiced physician,azt aids, beagles etc), and Pfizer is not a trustworthy company (largest settled fraud case in pharm history). What we have witnessed and been a part of for the past 3 years is not in any way shape or form "science". The truth is slowly coming out, but people don't want to hear it. Multiple mRna shots have damaged immune systems. decreasing inhaled oxygen and breathing in waste glasses and bacteria hasn't helped.  You can find a pub med paper to support almost any wrong belief. That is the nature of the state sponsored "science" and media, and the sick world we live in. You can't change people's minds, they just have to wake up one day and figure it out for themselves. Most people will take it to their (early) grave. Im just glad I never fell for it, though I have fallen for other "science" stories to my great detriment. Questioning my own beliefs about everything, everyday. 

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Meet the counter-narrative, same as the old narrative.

Scare-quotes can be put around the response to the pro-vaccine position as much it can around vaccine "science".

We won't be able to make solid judgments about any of this for a long time. The Owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.

But my very provisional view is that I'm very glad COVID vaccines were available; not glad, however, that some people were (to varying degrees) forced to take them.

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Health

Covid-19 may have started in raccoon dogs, new DNA evidence shows

Swabs taken from various surfaces at a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan, China, that were positive for the coronavirus also have evidence of DNA from raccoon dogs

By Clare Wilson

Calendar icon

17 March 2023

 

A raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides)

Raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) have previously been found to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and to be capable of spreading it

Michael Breuer

 

The long-running debate over the origins of covid-19 took another turn this week, after a French scientist spotted that genetic sequences put on a database by Chinese researchers suggest that the coronavirus responsible might have come from animals such as raccoon dogs at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan.

Within a few days, the sequences were removed by the same researchers – although some other scientists managed to download them beforehand and are investigating further.

“It is really critical that any and all data that relates to how this pandemic began be made available immediately,” Maria Van Kerkhove at the World Health Organization (WHO) said at a press conference on 17 March.

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“There are several hypotheses that need to be examined, including how the virus entered the human population, either from a bat, through an intermediate host or through a breach in biosecurity from a lab. And we don’t have a definitive answer.”

The Huanan market has long been seen as a probable origin for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, as many of the first cases of covid-19, in December 2019, were in people with a connection to it and the stalls sold a range of live and dead animals, not just seafood.

SARS-CoV-2’s original host is thought to be bats, as they carry many coronaviruses, although they haven’t yet been found with SARS-CoV-2. The ancestor of this virus may have jumped from bats to an intermediate host sold at the market, and then to people.

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An alternative explanation is that the virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where researchers were known to be studying bat coronaviruses, but not SARS-CoV-2. While this is a less-favoured idea among scientists, in February, the US Department of Energy said it was the most likely explanation, but didn’t release supporting evidence.

 

 

Now, genetic sequences uploaded onto a global virology database called GISAID by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention may have shed more light on SARS-CoV-2’s origin. These sequences were derived from swabs taken from various surfaces at the market in early 2020 after it had been shut down.

They were noticed by Florence Débarre at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, who shared her findings with the WHO on 14 March. “I was focusing on market sequences when I logged in, but I was not expecting to find the data I found,” says Débarre.

Débarre declined to say any more until her analysis is complete, but Van Kerkhove said at the press conference: “Amongst the samples that were positive for SARS-CoV-2, they saw evidence of DNA of animals. Some of these animals include raccoon dogs.”

Raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) have previously been found to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and to be capable of spreading it. “We know they are good at carrying it,” says Alice Hughes at the University of Hong Kong.

This doesn’t prove that raccoon dogs or any of the other animals at the market were infected with the virus in December 2019 and such evidence is now impossible to source, says Hughes.

Jonathan Stoye at the Francis Crick Institute in London says: “The data would appear to provide convincing evidence that raccoon dogs and other animals were present at the market at a critical time. This is another link in the chain that you would expect to see if the pandemic started that way.”

Off the back of the information Débarre shared, Van Kerkhove said that the WHO has asked the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention to rerelease the genetic data. “The big issue is that this data exists and that it is not readily available to the international community, not to mention that it should have been made available years earlier.”

T

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On 3/18/2023 at 8:35 AM, BrianMDelaney said:

We won't be able to make solid judgments about any of this for a long time. The Owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.

But my very provisional view is that I'm very glad COVID vaccines were available; not glad, however, that some people were (to varying degrees) forced to take them.

My take is that we can certainly make a solid judgment about invoking emergency powers and keeping them in place for years based on dubious scientific evidence, and using political structures to suppress opposing scientific evidence, and to generally suppress scientific debate. We should never do this again, and likely the only way to ensure it is to do proper investigation on how it came to be, and if there were abuses of power, to punish those who engaged in it.

The lockdowns were against all existing pandemic policies at the time, as were the mask mandates and the non-sterilizing vaccine mandates that in the US ignored, and still do, natural immunity. And all of it was accompanied by Chinese style censorship using private companies to enforce censorship and promote state propaganda.

I too am glad that the vaccines were available at such speed, but I feel uneasy about government favoritism toward Pfizer at the expense of other companies, including Novavax, which is still not fully approved in the US. Especially as Pfizer appeared to take a political stance by arbitrarily extending the trial and announcing a week after the election.

For the record, I was among the first batch to receive a Covid vaccine in the US, because after doing a fair amount of research on the subject, I joined the Novavax study. Also for the record, I have never had Covid and I have traveled to a number of hotspots, and thus have spend thousands on Covid tests. Because I travel, I have had probably more vaccines than most, and I believe that vaccines in general save lives and misery. When not politically weaponized and mandated. 

Edited by Ron Put
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On 3/19/2023 at 2:32 AM, Saul said:

Covid-19 may have started in raccoon dogs, new DNA evidence shows

Saul, this has been floating around for over a year, it was first proposed by an Australian team a year ago, but it went nowhere. I find it curious that it is suddenly back in the news, served as (yet another) definitive answer that doesn't make much sense.

Not to belabor the matter, but an accidental lab leak is by far the most likely answer, and it explains China's behavior:

- deleting lab databases just before the pandemic

- retrofitting the filtration systems in the lab at the same time

- refusal to cooperate with the investigation and provide lab records

It also explains Fauci's suppression of specific virus attributes that indicate lab manipulation that initially came from his own team, and his panicked orchestration of public "takedowns" of those who suggested a lab leak.

BTW, if I recall, the Australian team that came out with the raccoon dog story last year was also implicated as part of the network that worked with the Wuhan lab and was receiving NHI funding.

It does appear that it is highly unlikely that such a rapid spread would occur without intermediate transmissions, but I guess these stories provide enough doubt to keep up the confusion, which may well be the goal.

Edited by Ron Put
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Posted (edited)
On 3/19/2023 at 7:54 AM, Ron Put said:

and it explains China's behavior:

I was going to say, what fools would fall for the CCP magically dropping some "new evidence" (allegedly collected 3 years ago?) of yet another animal source from the Wuhan market? Especially after all the shenanigans they have pulled, refusing to cooperate, turn over data, hiding evidence, taking databases offline, etc.   Hahaha, if you buy that I've got a bridge to sell you.  

In other news, looks like a nasty flu is now rapidly spreading in China which might be worth tracking:

 

Edited by Gordo
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How raccoon dog DNA fits into the COVID-19 origins debate

A new analysis links the foxlike animals with the coronavirus at the start of the pandemic

e_garcia-de-jesus-214x214.jpg

Staff Writer

23 hours ago

A photo of a raccoon dog looking over its should at the camera while it stands in a field of tall grass.

A new analysis found genetic material from a raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and the coronavirus in the same environmental sample taken from a seafood market in Wuhan, China, linked to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The finding hints that the animals may have played a role in helping the virus jump to humans.

Raimund Linke/The Image Bank/Getty Images Plus

It’s been three years since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Yet the mystery of how it got started continues to make headlines again and again and to fuel a heated, and oft-time political, debate.

While what exactly happened in the earliest days of the pandemic remains an ongoing question, some genetic studies have tipped the scales in favor of the pandemic originating from a viral spillover from animals (SN: 10/4/22). A hypothesis, but no evidence, suggests the virus could have been leaked, either accidentally or deliberately, from a lab.

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U.S. intelligence agencies are split over which scenario they deem more likely. The Department of Energy and the FBI lean more toward the possibility of a lab leak, while the National Intelligence Council and others suspect a natural origin. It is important to note that most of these agencies drew their conclusions with “low confidence,” which means the available data the intelligence community had to rely on is “scant, questionable or very fragmented,” according to the National Intelligence Council.

Very soon, we will see what that intelligence looks like. President Joe Biden signed a bill into law on March 20 to declassify government information on the virus’s origins within 90 days.

Meanwhile, a new genetic analysis adds another piece to the puzzle in favor of the spillover scenario, this time with a possible suspect: raccoon dogs.

“These data do not provide a definitive answer to how the pandemic began,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a March 17 news briefing. “But every piece of data is important to moving us closer to that answer.”

Here’s what to know about the latest data and what they mean for pinning down the events that sparked the pandemic.

What is the latest line of evidence for a natural origin?

The first cluster of coronavirus cases in humans was linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China (SN: 1/24/20). Environmental samples taken in 2020 from the southwest corner of the market, where live animals were sold, carried genetic material from both the coronavirus and animals, the Atlantic first reported on March 16.

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In some virus-positive samples, computational biologist Alex Crits-Christoph and an international team of colleagues also found DNA from the common raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides). The foxlike animal native to Asia is susceptible to coronavirus infections, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.  

The fact that traces of both animal and coronavirus were uncovered in the same samples suggest that the virus may have jumped from bats to raccoon dogs or other animals at the market and then to people, the team writes (SN: 7/12/21). It posted its analysis March 20 on Zenodo, a repository where scientists can post research results that have not yet been reviewed by their peers.

This analysis builds on evidence from two studies published in Science in July 2022. In the first study, researchers reported that the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 variants from the pandemic’s early days suggest that there may have been two separate jumps from animals to people: one in late November 2019 and another weeks later. The second study used the first known COVID-19 cases and coronavirus-positive environmental samples from the seafood market to identify the southwest part of the market with live animal vendors as the likely epicenter of the pandemic’s spread.

In the new analysis, Crits-Christoph, who works from Baltimore for the nonprofit Cultivarium, and colleagues analyzed public genetic data that had been released in early March from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. That data, linked to a February 2022 preliminary study from the China CDC (which is now under review at a scientific journal), allowed the team to zoom in on an animal stall in the southwest part of the market that had the most virus-positive samples. A sample from a cart in that stall also contained plenty of genetic material from raccoon dogs, as well as a handful of other animals such as ducks.

There was no evidence of human DNA in that sample, a finding that hints that animals, not necessarily people, were close to the coronavirus in that spot. Raccoon dogs or another animal, the results suggest, might have served as a bridge to take the coronavirus from bats to humans.

Does this finding confirm where the coronavirus originated?  

No. As Tedros said on March 17, the findings aren’t a nail in the coffin to confirm the spillover hypothesis. Finding evidence of animal and coronavirus together in samples hints that the two were mighty close to one another. But this particular spillover story is still circumstantial. It’s unclear if animals housed in the stalls might have been infected with the virus, and if these animals then passed the virus on to humans.

It would have been better to have a positive swab from a live animal that was for sale at the market in late November or December 2019. Or to find the virus in wild animals. But both of those things may now be almost impossible.

By the time officials came to investigate the market in early 2020, any infected animals were probably long gone. And the virus has evolved since then. It’s morphed in people — giving us the alpha and delta variants as well as omicron and its spawn (SN:10/17/22). And it’s still evolving in animals, too. Coronaviruses circulating in animals now, or even two years ago, probably won’t look the same as SARS-CoV-2 did at the end of 2019, so viruses from nature won’t be an exact match. 

“It’s like a cold criminal case,” says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. “There may be mounting evidence that, you know, John Doe did it. But not conclusive enough to try John Doe for the crime.”

That isn’t unusual when it comes to pinning down the source of an outbreak. Such investigations can take years and may never provide a definitive answer (SN: 3/18/21). Eventually, we may reach a point where we’re relying on the best evidence available and will have to accept that it’s as close as we’re going to get.

Do we need to know COVID-19’s origins to prepare for the next pandemic?

Not really. While the evidence we have leans toward spillover, we’re “mired in the mud,” says Osterholm, who notes that he’s agnostic for how the pandemic got started. He says it’d be better to focus on preparing for the next pandemic, rather than paying attention to only this one.  

It’s unavoidable that another pandemic is in our future; whether it will be another coronavirus, bird flu or something else entirely is anyone’s guess (SN: 3/6/23).

What we can do now is think more carefully about how we use land and do research.

As wildlife habitats disappear, humans come across animals more often, perhaps introducing more opportunities to exchange pathogens. Farming animals in tight quarters provides more opportunities too. Fixing those problems could help prevent spillover, or at least make it less likely.

Lab regulations — making sure potentially risky work is done safely or not done at all — can help to stop a lab leak.

There’s no reason we can’t start doing these things now, Osterholm says. “I wish we’d move on and start addressing … what we’re going to do to be better prepared” for the next potential spillover or lab leak, he says. “Because we’re not.”

Questions or comments on this article? E-mail us at feedback@sciencenews.org | Reprints FAQ

Citations

A. Crits-Christoph et al. Genetic evidence of susceptible wildlife in SARS-CoV-2 positive samples at the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, Wuhan: Analysis and interpretation of data released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control. Zenodo. Posted online March 20, 2023. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.7754299. 

G. Gao et al. Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the environment and animal samples of the Huanan Seafood Market. Research Square. Posted online February 25, 2022. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1370392/v1.

M. Worobey et alThe Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science. Vol. 377, July 26, 2022, p. 951. doi: 10.1126/science.abp8715.

J.E. Pekar et alThe molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2. Science. Vol. 377, July 26, 2022, p. 960. doi: 10.1126/science.abp8337.

e_garcia-de-jesus-214x214.jpg

Erin I. Garcia de Jesus is a staff writer at Science News. She holds a Ph.D. in microbiology from the University of Washington and a master’s in science communication from the University of California, Santa Cruz.

This article was supported by readers like you.

 

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A twitter thread compiling stories from countries around the world where the amount of people out of the workforce due to sickness are at record highs in recent months. This does continue to play a part in the inflation problem.

 

 

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On 3/25/2023 at 4:52 AM, Saul said:

How raccoon dog DNA fits into the COVID-19 origins debate

Ironically, this kind of regurgitated nonsense is a textbook disinformation campaign, where information is periodically released to dilute evidence pointing to culpability and to appeal to the confirmation bias of potential supporters. The Russian used the same method to deny culpability for the shooting in Malaysia Airlines flight 17, and are using it to claim that it was the West that started the Ukraine war.

The Chines are using it to cover up the origins of Covid, aided by Fauci and much of the left in the US, in a rather bizarre political stance (I can understand Fauci's reasons, of course). Because of the flood of disinformation spread by "reputable" media, ChatGPT will be convinced that this is the truth for the foreseeable future...

Anyway, the preprint is out, and here is one discussion of it:
 

 

Edited by Ron Put
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/19/2023 at 7:38 AM, Ron Put said:

... Because I travel, I have had probably more vaccines than most, and I believe that vaccines in general save lives and misery. When not politically weaponized and mandated. 

Ron, a belated thanks for your civil and balanced perspective. We largely agree. My interest actually lies elsewhere, in the sociology of knowledge perspective from which one might illuminate why society tends to form extreme narratives that spawn equally extreme counternarratives. I'm becoming a Pyrrhonist, if only to reduce the collective screaming. This meta-point about skepticism strikes me as more important that the substantive matters about which one might be skeptical. But that's a different topic for a different day.

Main point here: your lack of extremeness is rare, and refreshing.

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On 4/8/2023 at 11:02 PM, BrianMDelaney said:

I'm becoming a Pyrrhonist, if only to reduce the collective screaming. This meta-point about skepticism strikes me as more important that the substantive matters about which one might be skeptical. But that's a different topic for a different day.

Thank you, Brian. Funny enough, my Myers-Briggs type is a "sceptic." It seems to really annoy some, some of the time. And oh boy, you stumped me 🙂 I had only a vague recognition of the name, from an undergraduate class way back in the last century. I had to watch this intro lecture for it to come to life for me. So, thank you again.

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On 4/8/2023 at 10:02 AM, BrianMDelaney said:

I'm becoming a Pyrrhonist, if only to reduce the collective screaming.

While it is nice in theory to suspend judgement in non-evident matters there are instances such as with the covid vaccines where we are confronted with the choice to take it, wait or reject it and deadlines were imposed for things such as retaining employment forcing judgement before one might be satisfied with the evidence.

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On 4/17/2023 at 8:16 AM, Todd Allen said:

While it is nice in theory to suspend judgement in non-evident matters there are instances such as with the covid vaccines where we are confronted with the choice to take it, wait or reject it and deadlines were imposed for things such as retaining employment forcing judgement before one might be satisfied with the evidence.

I see it somewhat differently:

One suspends definitive personal judgment and if a choice is necessary, it is made based on how one parses the currently available evidence.

But under no conditions can such personal judgment be used to force others to take affirmative action against their own personal judgment.

The latter is what many governments around the world did, and is still done in the US.

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Unfortunately, like Netflix, political power, especially on the Left, knows that facts can be changed when the audience is ignorant and apathetic, and that it is almost impossible to later explain and correct the public's perception:
 

Remember when long-established practices were changed, first on death certificates, then on masks, then on scientific debate and free speech?

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In Italy issues are now rising. The latest one is that apparently the side effects of vaccines were not publicly disclosed under the order of the former minister of health. I'm not in the least surprised by that.

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3 minutes ago, mccoy said:

In Italy issues are now rising. The latest one is that apparently the side effects of vaccines were not publicly disclosed under the order of the former minister of health. I'm not in the least surprised by that.

I hope Europe opens up this can of worms and does a real investigation.

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