Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[Ron Put]

1 hour ago, Gordo said:

Ron, I think you may need more vodka.  There is a country that can help with that.  😉

LOL, methinks you might be the target audience and you might already be drinking it :D

Anyway, this is a "new" virus and it may become ubiquitous like the flu, or it may mutate and disappear. It is similar to viruses previously found in China (if I remember, carried by bats) and likely localized infections among villagers have been commonplace before, but it didn't spread.

But the panic it is causing is way out of proportion, although it may trigger a way overdue market correction, as well as a long overdue supply chain realignment.

[Dean Pomerleau]

This website has some interesting, up-to-date data on the spread of the coronavirus. It is particularly helpful that it shows new cases and deaths in the last 24 hours by country, something the Johns Hopkins site doesn't provide. Here is a sample, showing rapid growth in South Korea, Italy and Iran along with significant jumps in several other developed countries:

--Dean

[Sibiriak]

Coronavirus found in sub-Saharan Africa as WHO says spread could 'get out of control'

[Gordo]

[Gordo]

Just a gut feeling, but I predict that after this mornings big gap down open, the market is going to bottom rather quickly and then rally today. Despite all the media attention and scary reports, COVID-19 cases seem to be steadily dropping in China. I realize there are doubts about their numbers, but I think the decline in new cases in China is probably legit (hopefully there will be some independent confirmation of this soon) - it's sort of a signal of the beginning of the end of the hysteria. Only time will tell, but I think the regular flu is going to end up killing far more people than COVID-19.

[Sibiriak]

‘To hell and back’: my three weeks suffering from coronavirus   Tiger Ye, 21, lives in Wuhan and started showing symptoms in mid-January. Here he tells the story of his illness and recovery

 

Provides details on symptoms and treatment,  though it does not specify the "prescription medicine" , "Chinese medicine capsules"  and  IV drip he was given.

[AlPater]

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.
New England Journal of Medicine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-feb-29-1.5481048
"More than 85,000 people worldwide contract COVID-19, with deaths topping 2,900."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I accept that there are a lot of unreported infections, which distorts the % of people dying, but there could also be many who die who are not even tested.
And then there is Iran, in which the deaths/infections ratio is higher, in a country in which the the religious like to visit the holy city of Qum to kiss and touch the holy shrines.

[BrianA]

Curcumin Suppression of Cytokine Release and Cytokine Storm. A Potential Therapy for Patients with Ebola and Other Severe Viral Infections

http://iv.iiarjournals.org/content/29/1/1.full?fbclid=IwAR29DfdH1wrrWBIU0Z4WoKgPNqisYvNeDYKIh2aWPO3M60aYz86NIdabz9A

 

If this current outbreak becomes large/intense enough in a relatively compressed time period, hospitals will be overwhelmed and unable to treat everyone who needs breathing assistance. Alternate treatments might come in handy. Not clear if you could take enough curcumin orally to have a major effect though?

[Gordo]

Forget about mortality rate, this is why you should be worried about coronavirus

____________________________________________________

Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Gordo

[Sibiriak]

Coronavirus: A definitive guide to buying and using face masks, by a viral immunologist

[Gordo]

1 hour ago, Sibiriak said:

Coronavirus: A definitive guide to buying and using face masks, by a viral immunologist

 

'STOP BUYING MASKS': US Surgeon General warns wearing face masks could 'increase the spread of coronavirus'

Masks only protect heathcare workers, they don't work for anyone else 😉

Also note that 70% isopropyl alcohol costs almost nothing and is ubiquitous (every grocery store, drug store, big box store has it) and highly effective at destroying viruses.  A spray bottle and a bunch of that would probably come in handy during a pandemic, and would also allow you to reuse mouth coverings/masks safely assuming they had any effectiveness to begin with.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Gordo

[Sibiriak]

Quote

Masks only protect heathcare workers, they don't work for anyone else

 

But according to US Surgeon General:

Quote

"Folks who don't know how to wear them properly tend to touch their faces a lot and actually can increase the spread of coronavirus," he added.

 

The article I cited above makes the same point  and gives instructions on proper use.  Used properly,  masks and respirators ( in conjunction with diligent hand-washing) have been shown to be significantly effective.

I'm looking at this from the individual perspective-- researching how I can best protect myself (particularly because I may have to travel soon and may find myself in more challenging circumstances.)

Whether it's good social policy to promote mask use is an entirely different question (and the one presumably being addressed by the US surgeon general.)

 

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Gordo]

I was being sarcastic... I'm sure any barrier over your mouth and nose is better than nothing.  Positive pressure suit would be even better though 😉

[Todd Allen]

3 hours ago, Gordo said:

I was being sarcastic... I'm sure any barrier over your mouth and nose is better than nothing.  Positive pressure suit would be even better though 😉

How about a Halliburton Survivaball?

 

[Ron Put]

1 hour ago, Todd Allen said:

How about a Halliburton Survivaball?

 

LOL!

This is hilarious! Loved the Noah bit and the look of the guy in the audience. Thanks.

[Dean Pomerleau]

Yes, very funny. But not so different from the (serious?) Survival Capsule for riding out the aftermath of a tsunami. The capsule even has its own air supply.

--Dean

 

[BrianA]

This is speculative, based on how similar viruses have behaved.

 

The neuroinvasive potential of SARS‐CoV2 may be at least partially responsible for the respiratory failure of COVID‐19 patients

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25728

[Dean Pomerleau]

It is troubling how poor we've been so far at testing for the coronavirus. Here is a quote from a NYC doctor, from a CNBC interview:

McCarthy, a staff physician at New York-Presbyterian Hospital, says he still does not have access to test kits.

“I’m here to tell you, right now, at one of the busiest hospitals in the country, I don’t have it at my fingertips,” he said. “I still have to make my case, plead to test people. This is not good. We know that there are 88 cases in the United States. There are going to be hundreds by the middle of the week. There’s going to be thousands by next week. And this is a testing issue.”

Here is a table showing how widely different countries are testing for the virus. So far we're testing 2000x fewer people per million citizens than South Korea:

I don't have a whole lot of confidence in Mike Pence, but hopefully whatever public health professionals are left at the CDC (after Trump's cuts) will get on the ball and get the resources they need soon.

--Dean

[Ron Put]

7 hours ago, BrianA said:

This is speculative, based on how similar viruses have behaved.

 

The neuroinvasive potential of SARS‐CoV2 may be at least partially responsible for the respiratory failure of COVID‐19 patients

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25728

It'd be interesting to see if this holds up and if it does, what it means.

[mccoy]

Ron, the article is interesting because:

1. It announces the new denomination of the virus which is genetically strictly related to the SARS coV (edit: I erroneously identified the Covid-19, which is the disease, with the virus itself).
2. Hints at some possible affection of the neurological system, which had not been highlighted so far (this may be very significant as far as medical treatments go). 

Point #2 above may even suggest that I'm presently infected by the virus since I'm suffering a very mild form of trigeminal neuralgia which I never experienced before.

Just a possibility, I am otherwise asymptomatic and I'm not going to have myself tested though. But so far I was sure I wasn't infected since the target tissues were believed to belong to the lower and upper respiratory system. Presently I'm not so sure.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by mccoy

[Sibiriak]

Quote

 

Italy’s large elderly population poses a challenge in slowing the number of coronavirus deaths in the worst-affected country in Europe, a health specialist has said.

The virus has killed 52 people in Italy, all aged between 63 and 95 with underlying serious illnesses.

The Guardian’s Lorenzo Tondo and Angela Giuffrida report that the death toll, provided by officials on Monday night, marked an increase of 18 in 24 hours. Twenty-three per cent of the Italian population is over 65, making it the oldest in the world after Japan.

Prof Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan, said: “Italy is a country of old people. The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here.

I think this could explain why we are seeing more serious cases of coronavirus here, which I repeat, in the vast majority of cases start mildly and cause few problems, especially in young people and certainly in children.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-live-updates-china-latest-news-us-australia-deaths-markets-italy-iran-update-cases-italy-south-korea-japan

[Mike41]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30935016

hmm... free article available. Surprisingly drug makers are interested! I think I’m gonna make me some vegetable barley soup. Mushrooms included of course

[Gordo]

https://summit.news/2020/03/03/chinese-architect-suggests-walking-around-in-a-bubble-literally-to-avoid-coronavirus/

I could see a few people from this forum getting one of these:

Chinese Architect Suggests Walking Around In A Bubble (Literally) To Avoid Coronavirus

Published

 1 min ago 

on

 3 March, 2020

Steve Watson

•  
•  
•  
•  
• 5 Comments

Get in the bubble

A Chinese architect has designed a wearable bubble that he claims will protect people from the coronavirus by killing it with UV lights.

Dayong Sun claims that the lightweight carbon fiber frame can be worn like a backpack, with a thermoplastic material encasing the wearer and heating up to a temperature that will kill pathogens.

Sun says that the contraption effectively produces an enclosed sterilized environment.

Wearers would literally be living in a bubble.

“The coronavirus will be killed by temperatures of 56 degrees Celsius,” (133 degrees Fahrenheit)  the inventor told Dezeen.

 

“The PVC film cover is like our car windshields – there are heater wire in between the glass for heat the ice and snow in the winter,” he added.

The World Health Organization responded to the suggestion by pointing out that UV lamps should not be used in close proximity to the skin, given that UV radiation can cause irritation and illnesses.

“Sure we still need to do lot of work with engineers for the real production.” Sun stated.

The architect is marketing the contraption as bat wings, which is somewhat ironic, given that the coronavirus was likely contracted from bats.

You wanna live in a bubble?

Get in the bubble. Maybe eat some insects while you’re in there.

[BrianA]

WHO now estimates average death rate is 3.4%. For folks in the 75+ years range, it goes up to maybe 10% or higher (saw this charted elsewhere).

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

[Gordo]

Metaculus Community median prediction is for 86 million infections by year end:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/?fbclid=IwAR3H_KX8draibQcrJp6hiaCYJW2ErY8T295sM5ZoNVsPpKFrcfMmdVgtwBI
 

Another nice tracking site: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMmRkYjYxY2ItZTExYy00MDQ2LWExNzUtYjg5NTJhMjBhNmM0IiwidCI6Ijc4ODE3YTE1LTllOTgtNDFmYy05ZDU4LTcwODIyMjhjNGIxMCIsImMiOjh9
(I like that you can choose any country and see its graph.

Good discussion of the infection prediction and links to valuable related resources: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/#comment-22667