Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[Saul]

On 10/27/2020 at 5:31 PM, Matt said:

My mum tested positive for COVID-19 after getting sick on Friday. My dad's test was inconclusive so he had to have it done again... but had a fever for a day on the weekend. My sister just got her result back and she is positive for it.

And I live with my parents... so I'm guessing I've certainly been exposed and probably have it. No symptoms though...

Hi Matt!

I hope that you come out alright.

  --  Saul

 

[Saul]

On 10/20/2020 at 8:05 AM, Sibiriak said:

Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

 

 

Hi Sibiriak!

Every phase 3 vaccine test studies memory T cells as well as just antibodies.  That includes the Pfizer, moderna, Asro-Zeneca, etc. vaccines.  So the article is very misleading.

  --  Saul

 

[Mike41]

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.570122/full

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Mike41

[Todd Allen]

2 hours ago, Mike41 said:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.570122/full

From the article:

Quote

Several nutraceuticals have a proven ability of immune-boosting, antiviral, antioxidant, anti inflammatory effects. These include Zn, vitamin D, vitamin C, curcumin, cinnamaldehyde, probiotics, selenium, lactoferrin, quercetin, etc. Grouping some of these phytonutrients in the right combination in the form of a food supplement may help to boost the immune system, prevent virus spread, preclude the disease progression to severe stage, and further suppress the hyper inflammation providing both prophylactic and therapeutic support against COVID-19.

While it is good these are being looked at I don't think the standard practice of blindly testing each in isolation will likely generate significant results.  A better approach might be to focus on ways to evaluate needs for example a given individual could be at suboptimal levels of zinc, selenium and vit. D and then address those needs in combination.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Todd Allen

[Matt]

It's been 11 days since my mum got sick and she seems to be doing better every day now. She really turned the corner and started to improve when she started taking the zinc and allicin. Of course, I have no real way of knowing if that had anything to do with it... but her oxygen saturation was 89 and she could barely talk because she couldn't catch her breath. Even walking a few feet would make her gasp for air.

I think she took about 90 allicin capsules over a period of 4 days. She took 100 mg zinc picolinate as well.  Now her oxygen saturation is around 94 and her heat rate 60-70. 

The most interesting thing happened with her temperature... As she has lupus, her temperature normally runs quite high at about 37.0 - 37.2 Degrees C. Since she's been taking these supplements, her temperature is now more consistently at about 36.5 degrees C.  We noticed the effect quite early on: every time she took them, within 30-60 minutes her temperature (fever) would drop significantly. She told me that she has *never* seen her body temperature so low in many years... 

Any thoughts on this?

I didn't give her beta glucan as I wasn't confident enough in its effects due to her case being more complex. However, I gave my dad supplements as soon as he started to feel ill. He took Yeast beta glucan (I posted research way back on how beta glucan prevents cytokine storm and tissue damage to lungs from H1N1 and other viruses). He took a LOT of allicin throughout the day. And he took 100 mg of Zinc Picolinate per day. He was mostly over COVID-19 within a day and a half... with some tiredness and the odd fever for 1 hour or so here and there.

 I took the same supplements as my dad and I got over COVID-19 within about 1 day and a half. Left with a very, very mild cough.

So anyway, my mum being affected with lupus, heart disease, COPD and other issues, seems to be doing a lot better and looks like she'll be fine. But it was very close and she almost ended up in hospital.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Matt

[Matt]

This is only a virtual screening of allicin, but thought I'd share:

In silico allicin induced S-thioallylation of SARS-CoV-2 main protease

"The overall reaction is exergonic and allyl disulfide of Cys-145 residue of Mpro is involved in a sulfur mediated hydrogen bond. The results indicate that allicin causes dual S-thioallylation of SARS-CoV-2 Mpro which may be of interest for treatment and attenuation of ongoing coronavirus infection."

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17415993.2020.1817457

[Saul]

Hi ALL!

Covid cases here in Rochester NY are still low; but they're going up.  Here at the University of Rochester, this term a a sizeable fraction of us are teaching in-person -- I'm by far the oldest one teaching in-person.  (I'm 81.  The others are in their 30's or younger.)  One Prof -- obese, but very strong and in his early thirties -- just decided to switch to on-line instruction -- "in an abundance of caution".  After Thanksgiving, the University Administration requires us to teach the remaining two weeks of our classes on-line.  (I'll drive to my office at UR -- there's a greeat desktop Mac there that does excellent zoom -- and my office blackboard is right in front of it.  So I'll teach writing on the blackboard with "Hagamoro chalk" -- the best chalk.  Not too different from teaching in-person.)

Next term, classes start Feb 1.  Almost every member of the math dept is teaching on-line.  There are only 3 or 4 of us teaching in-person -- definitely including me.

  --  Saul

[corybroo]

Even if you're asymptomatic, COVID-19 can harm your heart, study shows – here's what student athletes need to know

New research now shows that even young people with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic are at risk for developing potentially dangerous inflammation around the heart.

… found evidence of heart abnormalities in over one-third of student athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 and underwent cardiac screening at West Virginia University this fall.

frequently found evidence of inflammation and excess fluid in the pericardium, the sac around the heart. Almost all of the 54 students tested had either mild COVID-19 or were asymptomatic.

In one study, Ohio State University doctors tested 26 college athletes in September and found signs of heart inflammation consistent with myocarditis in four.

… examined 54 student athletes who had tested positive for COVID-19 three to five weeks earlier.

We didn't find convincing signs of ongoing myocarditis, but we did see a lot of evidence of pericarditis. Among the student athletes screened, 40% had pericardial enhancement, suggesting resolving inflammation in the sac that protects the heart, and 58% had pericardial effusion, meaning excess fluid had built up.

[Gordo]

Cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 found at six months in non-hospitalised individuals

This study is nice because they looked at people who were infected but asymptomatic or only mild infection, and they found that everyone had robust t-cell immunity 6 months after infection.  Study size was small though and used healthcare workers which may not be a good representation of the general population (healthcare workers might have repeated exposure).

 

2nd November 2020

Cellular (T cell) immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be present within most adults six months after primary infection, a new pre-print on bioRxiv suggests. The research from the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC), Public Health England and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust demonstrates robust T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 virus peptides at this timepoint in all participants following asymptomatic or mild/moderate COVID-19 infection.

 

[Ron Put]

12 hours ago, Saul said:

Almost every member of the math dept is teaching on-line.  There are only 3 or 4 of us teaching in-person -- definitely including me.

  --  Saul

My hat off to you, Saul. Did you learn if your post-vaccine T-cells are fully trained to kill the invading covids?

 

9 hours ago, corybroo said:

New research now shows that even young people with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic are at risk for developing potentially dangerous inflammation around the heart.

I think similar sensationalist claims have been posted here before.  Such claims have validity, but the fact is that very similar inflammation is observed in cases of other viruses, including influenza (for a few decades now, I believe) -- I have posted at least one such study earlier in this thread.

The panic has been a boon for bad, politicized science and some really poor studies --I remember one where a guy was shouting through a cardboard box in a lab, in order to show that all expert advice on masks was wrong, and his study was to usher the new gold standard of masks for all.

[Gordo]

I hadn't looked at the daily new cases (US) in a while, man its looking pretty ugly right now:

 

Matt - good to hear you and your family recovered so fast!

[corybroo]

These Seven Different “Disease Forms” Have Been Identified in Mild COVID-19

a team of MedUni Vienna scientists led by immunologist Winfried F. Pickl and allergologist Rudolf Valenta (both from the Center for Pathophysiology, Infectiology and Immunology) showed that there are seven “forms of disease” in COVID-19 with mild disease course and that the disease leaves behind significant changes in the immune system, even after 10 weeks. 

 symptoms related to COVID-19 occur in symptom groups. They identified seven groups of symptoms: 1) “flu-like symptoms” (with fever, chills, fatigue and cough), 2) (“common cold-like symptoms” (with rhinitis, sneezing, dry throat and nasal congestion), 3) “joint and muscle pain”, 4) “eye and mucosal inflammation”, 5) “lung problems” (with pneumonia and shortness of breath), 6) “gastrointestinal problems” (including diarrhea, nausea and headache) and 7)  “loss of sense of smell and taste and other symptoms.”

the scientists established that COVID-19 leaves behind long detectable changes in the blood of convalescents, very similar to a fingerprint. For example, the number of granulocytes, which are otherwise responsible in the immune system for fighting bacterial pathogens, is significantly lower than normal in the COVID-19 group.

both the CD4 and CD8 T cell compartment developed memory cells and CD8 T cells remained strongly activated. This indicates that the immune system is still intensively engaged with the disease several weeks after initial infection. At the same time, the regulatory cells are greatly diminished – and that is likely a dangerous mix, which could lead to autoimmunity.

the higher the fever of the affected patient during the mild course of the disease, the higher were the antibody levels against the virus

[mccoy]

MMMmmm, in real life, not everyone has symptoms though. Not everyone gets infected, even. An institution where prevalently boys and girls are recovered, here in Italy. I have relatives there. Closed environment, close proximity, no restrictions to contact within patients, they do not understand the risk. In my estimate, 100% of the patients were directly exposed to the virus. only 50% resulted positive. Within the positive ones, only 4% (2% of the total) exhibited moderate symptoms, none was hospitalized so far.

So, in prevalently young individuals, infection seems to be very, very mild, And what absolutely surprises me is that half the population of this age does not even exhibit the signs of infection. They are being tested weekly. Two tests have been administered since the outbreak inception.

[mccoy]

11 hours ago, Gordo said:

I hadn't looked at the daily new cases (US) in a while, man its looking pretty ugly right now:

This is the so-called second wave, rampant in Europe and USA presently. In Italy daily deaths have already hit 50% of the peak in March. Should we lock the world down again?

The Italian government, after having slept in blissful delusion the whole summer, is attempting maybe a more rational effort, an optimization system where the severity of lockdowns is decided upon 21 parameters. Three areas: yellow, orange, red. The red lockdown is far less severe that the March lockdown.

 

 

[Gordo]

I don't know if this is too preliminary for "celebrations" but everyone is reporting this news today:

Pfizer, BioNTech Say Their COVID-19 Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective

"Today is a great day for science and humanity," Albert Bourla, Pfizer's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. "We are reaching this critical milestone in our vaccine development program at a time when the world needs it most with infection rates setting new records, hospitals nearing over-capacity and economies struggling to reopen."

Pfizer expects to seek broad U.S. emergency use authorization of the vaccine for people aged 16 to 85. To do so, it will need to have collected two months of safety data on around half of the study's roughly 44,000 participants, expected in late November.

"I'm near ecstatic," Bill Gruber, one of Pfizer's top vaccine scientists, said in an interview. "This is a great day for public health and for the potential to get us all out of the circumstances we're now in."

The company did not break down exactly how many of those who fell ill received the vaccine. Still, over 90% effectiveness implies that no more than 8 of the 94 people who caught COVID-19 had been given the vaccine, which was administered in two shots about three weeks apart.

The efficacy rate is well above the 50% effectiveness required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a coronavirus vaccine.

To confirm its efficacy rate, Pfizer said it will continue the trial until there are 164 COVID-19 cases among participants. Given the recent spike in U.S. infection rates, that number could be reached by early December, Gruber said.

 

 

 

[corybroo]

A bit more on Pfizer’s vaccine.  Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine is looking 90% effective

Monday's announcement doesn't mean for certain that a vaccine is imminent: This interim analysis, from an independent data monitoring board, looked at 94 infections recorded so far in a study that has enrolled nearly 44,000 people in the U.S. and five other countries. Some participants got the vaccine, while others got dummy shots.

[It sounds like it’s much better than expected]  Earlier this year, Fauci said he would be happy with a COVID-19 vaccine that was 60% effective. Scientists have warned for months that any COVID-19 shot may be only as good as flu vaccines, which are about 50% effective and require yearly shots.

Pfizer opted not to join the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed, which helped a half-dozen drugmakers accelerate their vaccine testing and helped fund the work. Instead, Pfizer funded all its testing and manufacturing costs itself. The company said it has invested billions of dollars.

No participant so far has become severely ill, Gruber said. Nor could he provide a breakdown of how many of the infections had occurred in older people, who are at highest risk from COVID-19.

Participants were tested only if they developed symptoms, leaving unanswered whether vaccinated people could get infected but show no symptoms and unknowingly spread the virus.

"Crucial information absent from the companies' announcement is any evidence that the vaccine prevents serious COVID-19 cases or reduces hospitalizations and deaths due to the disease," the organization said.

[AlPater]

Association between mental illness and COVID-19 susceptibility and clinical outcomes in South Korea: a nationwide cohort study.
Lee SW, Yang JM, Moon SY, Yoo IK, Ha EK, Kim SY, Park UM, Choi S, Lee SH, Ahn YM, Kim JM, Koh HY, Yon DK.
Lancet Psychiatry. 2020 Sep 17:S2215-0366(20)30421-1. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30421-1. Online ahead of print.
PMID: 32950066 Free PMC article.
Abstract
Background: Evidence for the associations between mental illness and the likelihood of a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test result and the clinical outcomes of COVID-19 is scarce. We aimed to investigate these associations with data from a national register in South Korea.
Methods: A nationwide cohort study with propensity score matching was done in South Korea using data collected from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service of Korea. We defined mental illness as present if one of the relevant ICD-10 codes was recorded at least twice within 1 year for an outpatient or inpatient. Severe mental illness was considered as non-affective or affective disorders with psychotic features. We included all patients aged older than 20 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 through services facilitated by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service of Korea, and the Ministry of Health and Welfare, South Korea. We investigated the primary outcome (SARS-CoV-2 test positivity) in the entire cohort and the secondary outcomes (severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19: death, admission to the intensive care unit, or invasive ventilation) among those who tested positive.
Findings: Between Jan 1 and May 15, 2020, 216 418 people were tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 7160 (3·3%) tested positive. In the entire cohort with propensity score matching, 1391 (3·0%) of 47 058 patients without a mental illness tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, compared with 1383 (2·9%) of 48 058 with a mental illness (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·00, 95% CI 0·93-1·08). Among the patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, after propensity score matching, 109 (8·3%) of 1320 patients without a mental illness had severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 compared with 128 (9·7%) of 1320 with a mental illness (adjusted OR 1·27, 95% CI 1·01-1·66).
Interpretation: Diagnosis of a mental illness was not associated with increased likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Patients with a severe mental illness had a slightly higher risk for severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 than patients without a history of mental illness. Clinicians treating patients with COVID-19 should be aware of the risk associated with pre-existing mental illness.

[Ron Put]

On 11/9/2020 at 10:24 AM, corybroo said:

"Crucial information absent from the companies' announcement is any evidence that the vaccine prevents serious COVID-19 cases or reduces hospitalizations and deaths due to the disease," the organization said.

This is kind of misleading claim, as presumably if we compare to a random sample of 44000 people of similar criterial to that of the vaccine group, we would find some number of people with Covid-19 complications.

Also, as coronaviruses are relatively simple and stable compared to something like the influentza strains, it's likely that the vaccine will retain its potency longer than the flu vaccines. Of course, it's also likely that once a significant portion of the population is exposed and T-cell immunity develops, the need for the Covid-19 vaccines would be greatly diminished other than for the most vulnerable.

I recently came upon an interesting article, which might help place the media hysteria and political scaremongering in a little better perspective:

More Swedes died in one month 1993 and 2000, compared to april 2020 — why?

[Saul]

On 11/9/2020 at 10:02 AM, Gordo said:

I don't know if this is too preliminary for "celebrations" but everyone is reporting this news today:

Pfizer, BioNTech Say Their COVID-19 Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective

"Today is a great day for science and humanity," Albert Bourla, Pfizer's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. "We are reaching this critical milestone in our vaccine development program at a time when the world needs it most with infection rates setting new records, hospitals nearing over-capacity and economies struggling to reopen."

Pfizer expects to seek broad U.S. emergency use authorization of the vaccine for people aged 16 to 85. To do so, it will need to have collected two months of safety data on around half of the study's roughly 44,000 participants, expected in late November.

"I'm near ecstatic," Bill Gruber, one of Pfizer's top vaccine scientists, said in an interview. "This is a great day for public health and for the potential to get us all out of the circumstances we're now in."

The company did not break down exactly how many of those who fell ill received the vaccine. Still, over 90% effectiveness implies that no more than 8 of the 94 people who caught COVID-19 had been given the vaccine, which was administered in two shots about three weeks apart.

The efficacy rate is well above the 50% effectiveness required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a coronavirus vaccine.

To confirm its efficacy rate, Pfizer said it will continue the trial until there are 164 COVID-19 cases among participants. Given the recent spike in U.S. infection rates, that number could be reached by early December, Gruber said.

 

 

 

Hi Gordo!

I was in that Phase 3 trial of the Pfizer vaccine; here in Rochester, it was run by Dr. Walsh of Rochester General Hospital (formerly at UR).  Dr. Walsh, IMO, is the "Fauci of Rochester".  I have two reasons for being pretty sure that I received the vaccine, not the saline:

(1)  I've never had any side effect from any vaccine -- and didn't expect one from the Pfizer vaccine.  But I was extremely tired after the first shot; drove home, went to bed, woke up in the morning still somewhat tired.  Then it hit me:  I just got an injection the night before.  Fatigue, I found out, is a known side effect of the vaccine.

(2) In following the recent news since Pfizer's announcement, I discovered that the vaccine has to be kept at ca. -50 degrees Centigrade.  When they prepared me for the first shot, they took a long time "preparing" it.  The syringe was giving off vapour when they came with it -- as if it was very cold.

😉

  --  Saul

[Mike41]

20 hours ago, Ron Put said:

This is kind of misleading claim, as presumably if we compare to a random sample of 44000 people of similar criterial to that of the vaccine group, we would find some number of people with Covid-19 complications.

Also, as coronaviruses are relatively simple and stable compared to something like the influentza strains, it's likely that the vaccine will retain its potency longer than the flu vaccines. Of course, it's also likely that once a significant portion of the population is exposed and T-cell immunity develops, the need for the Covid-19 vaccines would be greatly diminished other than for the most vulnerable.

I recently came upon an interesting article, which might help place the media hysteria and political scaremongering in a little better perspective:

More Swedes died in one month 1993 and 2000, compared to april 2020 — why?

So yes a good point. It may partly explain the apparent severity of covid is not really so severe.

[corybroo]

Just saw this chart comparing the influence of science on policy determined by a survey of each countries scientists:

[KHashmi317]

Probably the best option thus far for COVID, even as a prophylactic (ivermectin cocktail)....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6A6RFDprIs

Not sure where one could find a doc to prescribe the cocktail, here in the US of A, esp. the prescription-only  doxycycline .

But the main ingredient -- ivermectin -- is common in (OTC???) pet dewormers:

https://www.petplace.com/article/drug-library/drug-library/library/ivermectin-ivomec-heartgard-for-dogs-and-cats/

 

[Ron Put]

23 hours ago, corybroo said:

... chart comparing the influence of science on policy determined by a survey of each countries scientists:

Good one... More political propaganda masquerading as the opinion of "each countries scientists" [sic] 

Covid-19 has been used to just undermine the Western economies, restrict rights and free speech, and sow social discord, but it also has been a boon to really bad science, which is then used by the media and the Twitter hordes to claim that "the scientists say...".

In the meantime, there is scant coverage of The Great Barrington Declaration signed by many of the most prominent experts in their fields, some risking their careers, as now the Twitter mobs are trying to "cancel" the more prominent signatories.

BTW, this is the publisher of this nonsense:

[corybroo]

On 11/12/2020 at 4:25 PM, Ron Put said:

In the meantime, there is scant coverage of The Great Barrington Declaration signed by many of the most prominent experts in their fields, some risking their careers, as now the Twitter mobs are trying to "cancel" the more prominent signatories.

I went to google and did a search for “fact check great barrington” which turned up the following:

Great Barrington herd immunity document widely disputed by scientists

COVID-19 debate: Great Barrington MA takes issue with “Great Barrington Declaration”

Herd immunity letter signed by fake experts including 'Dr Johnny Bananas'

The Great Barrington Declaration: Great Ethical Confusion

Scientists Are Slamming The Great Barrington Declaration’s Call For “Herd Immunity”

[Mike41]

On 11/12/2020 at 12:55 PM, KHashmi317 said:

Probably the best option thus far for COVID, even as a prophylactic (ivermectin cocktail)....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6A6RFDprIs

Not sure where one could find a doc to prescribe the cocktail, here in the US of A, esp. the prescription-only  doxycycline .

But the main ingredient -- ivermectin -- is common in (OTC???) pet dewormers:

https://www.petplace.com/article/drug-library/drug-library/library/ivermectin-ivomec-heartgard-for-dogs-and-cats/

 

Another possibility and one that may kill 2 birds with one stone is:

https://ufhealth.org/news/2020/uf-health-study-shows-flu-vaccination-might-confer-protection-against-severe-covid-19
 

these results were downright impressive. There is also a clinical trial that is using the shingles vaccine 2 months apart injections on nursing home residents with a placebo group