Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Saul

War in Ukraine

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Saul said:

one has the right to refuse vaccines.  But Trudeau made this essentially impossible for the anti-vaxxer truckers.

They could get other jobs or truck in Canada.

They held the city hostage; horns honked all hours; people were poisoned with diesel without there being a valid reason to be there, masks were ripped off faces; racist slurs were given; a fire was set in a building; people were prevented from daily life.

Ottawa police were responsible to keep the peace but failed and Ontario declared a state of emergency, yet the Truckers Convoy lingered on for 3 weeks.  Something needed to be done, and the Emergency Measures Act, a little brother to the War Measures Act that it replaced, was finally invoked on a time-limited and subject to the approval of the full government in relatively short order, and did what even the right wing opposition interim leader said needed to be done.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Clinton said:

the place for the leader to be is front and center (not running and hiding) and personally addressing the matter (not delegating the public response to an aid or delegate).

I disagree.  And responding to a mob demanding the overthrow of a government, well how did that work out for Washington, January the 6th?

Sure, you can say vaccination needs to be a personal decision, but where you put society at risk by personal contact in the workplace or other places conferring close contact, or by going to a foreign country with terrible health safety measures, well that is something else.  Go live in the bush if you are so antisocial that your want not to get vaccinated.

And the protesters wanted not just the freedom for truckers not to need vaccination to go to the US, they wanted all measures stopped.

Fortunately, things are getting better, and we will all go back to normal, or to a new normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AlanPater said:

And responding to a mob demanding the overthrow of a government,

This was not a mob demanding the overthrow of a government.  It was a group demanding the freedom to get vaccinated or not.

Al, I think your political bias is showing.

  --  Saul

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, AlanPater said:

What Canada does has trivial affect on what happens in the Ukraine

Al, just some food for thought since what Canada does has trivial effects in your view.

Canada has nearly 40 million people, a decent GDP and respected international as a nation that understand peace and restraint.  IF Canada took a stand RIGHT NOW WITH Ukraine the US would be right beside us and vice/versa (as always our brothers).  Instantly UK, Germany, Australia and NZ (our other close partners) would be right beside us - for a nation like CANADA to stand united with Ukraine - it would muster international support almost certainly, immediately.  -  do not look at Canada's as 'only' what Canada independently could provide - think of it as what would it demonstrate internationally.  This is a time to show confidence, show some nerve.  There is no need to cower - Russia is the aggressor here.  FFS the US has consistently had military spending as great as the next 10 nations on the planet COMBINED for years - and that does not include that of allies.

Canada joined WW2 in Sept of 1939 while the US joined in Dec. of 1941 ... to be sure we didn't have the equipment or as many soldiers of the US but what we did required a spine, and maybe it inspired the US to come in and finish it & win it.  

Edited by Clinton

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, AlanPater said:

I disagree.

Nope.  A leader displays leadership.

If, as Justin Trudeau declared, we were actually experiencing a 'National State of Emergency' then it was absolutely necessary for him to 1-be present 2-be THE ONE to speak regarding the matter.  That simple.

You can delegate many, many things, but not the most important situations, not the most important talks.  If this situation was not one of those, then it wasn't an emergency.  This is not a liberal vs. PC or democrat vs republican talk - it is basic leadership.

I was taught in BOTC in the Canadian Forces the principals of leadership - which certainly did not include disappearing during stressful/uncomfortable situations or asking a subordinate to address the troops during those situations.  Your post and Canada's Prime Minister - both disgusting.

Edited by Clinton

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Things have gone so poorly for Russia (especially in the PR department) that even CHINA had to step back, now Xi is accusing Putin of "playing him", haha.  This is so pathetic.

 

Edited by Gordo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Your post and Canada's Prime Minister - both disgusting.

Let us just say we disagree.  I feel no need to respond to your obviously strongly held views.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys, I don't know in your places, but here gasoline and diesel oil are skyrocketing, literally day after day.

One liter diesel fuel, today it was 2.1 Euro (2.3 US$).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/9/2022 at 1:57 AM, Clinton said:

I was taught in BOTC in the Canadian Forces the principals of leadership - which certainly did not include disappearing during stressful/uncomfortable situations or asking a subordinate to address the troops during those situations.

I don't know much about Mr. Trudeau, but indeed, a true leader must exhibit ownership, that's one of the basic rules of leadership.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm starting to drift toward Saul's opinion. Maybe for NATO it would be better to engage in a full war against Russia now, having realized how inefficient her army is.

I wouldn't worry much about nuclear war, as far as the novel Hitler is defeated ASAP and the prices get back to their normal values 👿👿👿

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 From the news coming from the invaded country, the battle of Kyiv seems to be imminent. If so it will be an epic battle, written in the history textbooks of the future.

The city is under siege and tens of thousands of regular troopers plus mercenaries are approaching. What I fear is that the siege will be prolonged to weaken the Ukrainians, having the tanks blocked the entry of goods and weapons into the city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/8/2022 at 2:33 PM, Saul said:

This was not a mob demanding the overthrow of a government.

"convoy organizers are promoting a "memorandum of understanding" calling on the Senate and the Governor General, in collaboration with a committee of citizens, to issue edicts to federal, provincial and municipal governments to repeal all vaccine-related restrictions. If the Senate and governor general decline to go along with that plan, the memo says, they're expected to resign.

In an interview earlier this week, one organizer called Trudeau a "criminal" and said the goal of the convoy is to "compel the government to dissolve government." Organizers reportedly plan to stay in Ottawa until all pandemic restrictions are lifted.

At the risk of stating the obvious, calls to overthrow Canada's democratic order are not something that can be entertained or humoured, no matter how tired some people are."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trucker-freedom-convoy-vaccine-pandemic-covid-1.6331908

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I started to listen to the podcast. I'm not sure I totally agree with Marshmeier. For example, while there have been definitely serious diplomatic and strategic errors on the side of the US, NATO and EU, this does not constitute an excuse to engage in armed invasion with another country. The encirclement syndrome of Russia is well known, but this paranoid attitude cannot excuse the invasion nor NATO can be blamed for the paranoia of another government.

 

Edited by mccoy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, mccoy said:

I started to listen to the podcast. I'm not sure I totally agree with Marshmeier. For example, while there have been definitely serious diplomatic and strategic errors on the side of the US, NATO and EU, this does not constitute an excuse to engage in armed invasion with another country. The encirclement syndrome of Russia is well known, but this paranoid attitude cannot excuse the invasion nor NATO can be blamed for the paranoia of another government.

 

I think the point he makes in all of his work is that when it comes to "great" powers (i.e. big countries w/ nuclear arsenals), they act out of strategic interests, and such interests always will drive their behavior rather than international law/norms, rights, etc. The issue w/ Ukraine is that since 2014, it has had a very anti-Russian US/UK backed government (who has given it tens of billions in funding). It is not that different than Cuba in the late 1950s to be honest. His reference to Cuba/sanctions/the missile crisis, etc form the basis of his argument about contemporary Ukraine.

Edited by alexthegra8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, alexthegra8 said:

I think the point he makes in all of his work is that when it comes to "great" powers (i.e. big countries w/ nuclear arsenals), they act out of strategic interests, and such interests always will drive their behavior rather than international law/norms, rights, etc. The issue w/ Ukraine is that since 2014, it has had a very anti-Russian US/UK backed government (who has given it tens of billions in funding). It is not that different than Cuba in the late 1950s to be honest. His reference to Cuba/sanctions/the missile crisis, etc form the basis of his argument about contemporary Ukraine.

I see the logic in the above and, in the meanwhile, I went thru the whole podcast.

Nevertheless, if America outsmarted Russia in Ukraine, by gaining an ally, that does not legitimate Russia to send out tanks, bombers and 200 K troops. That's a typical response of dictatorial regimes, which in the present global framework is not deemed to be acceptable by most countries.

Marshmeier's reasonings are anchored to old concepts, I daresay. Today there has been an evolution.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a Russian whistleblower type website I discovered because it was mentioned in some mainstream news article I was reading.  They published a really interesting letter/analysis supposedly from a Russian insider:
https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1237.html
I have no idea about the authenticity but its an interesting read.
 

Edited by Gordo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Saul said:

Hi Gordo!

Unfortunately, the letter is in Russian.

Sometimes I forget I configured Chrome to automatically translate every foreign language page into English.  If you don't have that setup, I highly recommend it:

Chrometranslate.jpg

But here is the translation:

We publish data from 2 sources. One of them reports that (if the letter was shortened, he convincingly asked not to publish his message) one of the factors for the start of the war was... Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the presence of more than 50 "unfinished projects" and a huge gap between the allocated budget funds within the framework of the State Defense Order and reality. In the second half of 2021, the administration of the President of the Russian Federation and the FSB actively discussed the possibility of the resignation of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S.K. Shoigu, conducting large-scale searches and detentions of his inner circle (candidate for arrest No. Ivanov himself was summoned for interrogation on the facts of billions of embezzlements and frauds), and Shoigu knew this for certain and took steps to "resolve the issue." It was not only about his political career (Shoigu considers himself the No. 1 candidate to replace Putin), but also about the possible arrest and confiscation of all the clan's property. In fact, the foreign policy situation and a number of stuffing (you can call them deep fakes), fabricated by Shoigu's subordinates and transferred to the aging Putin (lost touch with reality and plunged into the world of folders / bravnurny reports of his generals), formed the conditions for making a decision on the beginning of the "victorious" (actually no) war. The logic of the Shoigu clan is "The war will write off everything" and "They don't change horses at the crossing." (the hope that Putin will not decide on repressions and personnel decisions on Shoigu and his several deputies. 

Below is a letter from another source, the author of the letter dated March 4, 2022.  

"Wed, Mar 9, __:__ (20 hours ago)

to whom: me

Vladimir, good afternoon!

Probably the first time I can write in the daytime on a weekday - everything has turned upside down.

Under other circumstances, this information would look like nonsense, but now, I'm afraid, this will not be the limit.

Firstly, we are seriously considering the version that the ongoing battle on Ukrainian territory is a US war against China, in which the Americans simply set us up and used us. Now I will try to explain as concisely and simply as possible.

A global clash between the US and China was inevitable. After the start of the war with Ukraine (although I can not use the term "operation" here), the cost of resources in the world went up, especially energy ones. The main victim of such actions is China, which on our part (I can confirm) were given guarantees that everything would end quickly. Therefore, China has previously behaved tolerantly. But that was before.

The United States has such a specificity that they have the owners of industry and oil production, in fact, the same corporations, so there is a certain internal balance: with expensive oil, they earn from production, with cheap oil - from the development of industry. It's a bit rough, but gives the right insight into their approach. And slates, unlike classic derricks, are easy to freeze and unfreeze.

Now the US will come to an agreement with Venezuela and Iran, they themselves can buy Venezuelan light oil at a crazy discount. The discovery of Iranian oil, of course, will be received with hostility by Saudi Arabia and the UAE (here is the Yemen conflict, and a number of other factors - for simplicity, I will skip them for now), but everything indicates that the United States was preparing for such negotiations in advance.

The US essentially created a trap for us, almost similar to the Kuwaiti trap for Iraq, when Saddam Hussein was convinced that nothing would happen to him for a "small conflict". He entered Kuwait - and Desert Storm began. And with it began the end of Iraq.

We similarly gave all the signs that the United States would not intervene (which was confirmed militarily). China may well put forward a tough ultimatum to us to end the war in order to stabilize oil prices. If this happens, I do not want to predict anything - it is beyond the event horizon of a catastrophe.

Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries because of the war that the US will easily push sanctions against China, at least for Europeans, if it risks circumventing sanctions against Russia. China depends on exports so heavily that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices (with their strong rise, there is no chance for the domestic market), this will be almost a fatal blow.

Not only that: Xi Jinping at least considered seizing Taiwan tentatively in the fall - he needs his little victorious one in order to be re-elected for a third term - there is a colossal struggle within the elites. Now, after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity was closed to him, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his competitors on favorable terms. 

In this case, it was our actions that launched the trap mechanism for China. 

We will not be able to admit this aloud, even the development of the version in the current conditions is "not entirely appropriate." Therefore, there is a great desire for the secret to become clear: yes, this is just a working version, but it is in our structure.

The second is the evolution of the situation.

Now about our other plans that go beyond insanity. Sanctions actions against Russia have reached a level that has never been seen before in history. The only thing that GDP is right about is an essentially equivalent war. With such a sanctions approach, today's Russia does not leave a chance.

Now the matter may not be limited to threats to Europe - the probability of the outbreak of hostilities, albeit of a local nature for the time being, can be considered historically high. Ukraine is a monstrously large front, but there are smaller fronts. For example, if we were talking about Moldova, everything there would really be limited to a military operation in a few hours. With the Baltics - in a few days, but they would have been hit by rocket attacks. 

It is no longer possible to exclude completely real threats (not a bluff) of launching missile strikes on Europe in the event of an aggravation of sanctions. Supporters of this approach (they are among those who influence decisions) believe that otherwise we will simply be crushed, waiting for an internal explosion and collapse from within. In addition, in addition to missiles, we have the ability to conduct a powerful cyber war - the Internet can still be curtailed, so there is such a possibility - with the Internet turned off, it will be difficult for us to answer symmetrically. And an external war in any case should reduce internal tension and throw off aggression outside. Although, "should" - does not mean that it will be so.

There is another fairly realistic (but I won’t say good) plans to start a massive information campaign that we are ready for war and sanctions for years: this should psychologically put pressure on Ukrainians (it won’t end quickly - better give up) and Western business. But we can put some pressure on our...

I suppose that different representatives of the authorities can now start separately to put pressure on their options. There will be more chaos, that's all.

I won’t talk about the economy - it’s like discussing the nuances of the sowing campaign during a nuclear bombardment. Terror will intensify - there are no other internal tools to keep the situation inside the country. But terror is a complicated and costly thing, this measure should become temporary. It's like holding your breath because of the poisoned air: if you get out of such a zone further, then the action is justified. And if you hold your breath "for an hour" - protect yourself from poison, but ...

We have no systemic solutions with a positive option. There is not even a Ukrainian political force to which power could be delegated, at least for appearances. If Yanukovych was released, then this only shows how bad things are in our country in this regard. Not a single strategic city has been captured. Kherson and Kharkov were considered the most pro-Russian, in Kherson, even with the control of our military, pro-Ukrainian rallies do not subside. In Kharkov, everything is much worse. 

I don't go into details, I've just summarized the gist.

Another important piece of information that needs to be added.

The "Plan of Victory" is now drawn in our Service as follows:

Zelensky will be pressured to sign an outwardly soft peace treaty, where he will recognize Crimea as Russia, and the Lugansk and Donetsk regions will go to the LDNR. It is on the LDNR that our negotiators will focus: what nuances, etc. But this is a distraction.

The key point should be the point about demilitarization, which will actually ban the functioning of the Ukrainian special services, primarily counterintelligence.

Here, everyone sees ours as much more promising: in a matter of years, we, perhaps with some (minimal) help from the GRU, will have to carry out a total cleansing of the socio-political field. And after that, it will be possible to carry out any of its authorities to Kyiv.

With a high probability, this plan will become dominant for the Kremlin when adjusting the strategy, although nobody cancels the scenarios of madness with aggression on other fronts. In theory, he has prospects, how it will be in practice - is unknown. There can be no military victory here, only such.

There are a lot of nuances here, but the main thing is that after the agreement, ours will be able to actually abandon such agreements at any moment when they have the strength to turn the tide. But then for the "second phase" it will no longer be the troops that will be involved, but purely "black funnels" with the arrests of those who are accused of violating the Ukrainian side. 

This scenario is not as crazy as the others, but everything is again based on some estimates that there is an opportunity to put pressure on Kyiv in the negotiations. Now foreign contacts are being worked out at the highest level - there is a search for those countries whose leadership could tacitly support our position and put pressure on Zelensky. Perhaps this is another bluff, perhaps this is an analogue of the Wenck army in our realities. In general, we now have, as I said, a fairly high level of chaos. 

In economic terms, we are flying and everything is very predictable: the abyss winks fervently at us.

We are limited in our ability to verify all data, but we consider it important to disclose this information in order to prevent threats to global security. No war!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The data on Russian war casualties are interesting. The present unbiased estimates are about 7000 deaths (against the Ukraininan estimates which are twice that number).

That's a pretty substantial number. I don't know if there are unbiased estimates of destroyed tanks and aircraft. It will be interesting to read about the battles from someone who has participated in them. The initial impressions are confirmed. Russian convoys move very slowly along roads since the natural terrain is dangerous and are stalled by lack of fuel, food and ammo.

The way I grasped it, this confinement in a way facilitates ambushes, with Ukrainian resistance armed with javelin missiles wreaking havoc amidst the convoys. Helicopters patrol the convoys, but it is impossible to patrol tens of miles of it and Ukrainian troopers conceal pretty well in a terrain which they know very well.

The planned use of mercenaries among other reasons will probably be good for the morale of Russian army and families

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×