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Saul

War in Ukraine

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7 hours ago, corybroo said:

I wondered if the Ukrainian Invasion was an example of Wag the Dog

Thanks for the extensive reference to the idiom, which i didn't know and it's interesting to read that a similar situation has already been contemplated in a fiction work

 

Quote

 

Wag the dog went on to develop its own specialized political meaning. In 1997, a film called Wag the Dog came out, based on a 1993 novel of the same name by Larry Beinhart. The plot revolved around efforts to distract attention from a presidential scandal by fabricating a war.

The story intruded into real politics not long after its release. In 1998, when Bill Clinton’s scandal regarding Monica Lewinsky broke, he was accused of “wagging the dog.” Three days after admitting he had inappropriate relations with Lewinsky, he ordered missile strikes against two countries, allegedly to divert public attention from his sex scandal.

 

 

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A very interesting and concise explanation on war strategy on both parts. This confirms my impressions written in previous posts, especially when I visualized the Russian convoys advancing on roads with the constant danger of Ukrainian ambushes.

  1. After the loss of Crimea, Ukrainians military have developed a modern decentralized system, whereas the Russians have stuck to their top-down, centralized command. This resulted in immobilized battalions and killed generals.
  2. The backbone of the Russian offensive army is the battalion tactical group, which has been designed for a war against NATO troops, with similar armoured vehicles and combat modalities. Weak point of this framework, which have been exploited by the Ukrainian defense, is that they are constrained by roads (at least in Ukraine), have vulnerable flanks and have been the target of numerous ambushes with Javelin missiles.
  3. The tactical battalions need a very efficient logistic support, which has been missing in Ukraine
  4. The military aid provided by many nations to Ukraine has been massive. Javelin missiles, Stinger missiles and drones, in addition to conventional weaponry, made a huge difference in and allowed the destruction of numerous aircraft and armoured vehicles. 

 

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Interesting combat footage, another ambush by the Ukrainians with an anti-tank missile. It gives an idea of what is happening inside urban areas. The Ukrainian soldiers shoot too early and the explosive head does not arm itself (it's a safety measure not to explode near the launcher). And the tank crew must prey their God to have survived one more day.

The Russian soldiers are stressed out and kill civilians in the meanwhile.

 

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The more the war goes on, the more Mr. Putin reveals his nature. What convinced me that he is but a more modern and sophisticated version of Stalin is the promotion he gave to the captain of the 16th battalion stationed in Bucha, where the first atrocities of the Russian occupation were revealed. He promoted the commandeer and bestowed some honors to the battalion.

Sweden and Finland are very right in being concerned. Only Mr. Putin has been able to move them from their decennial neutral status and push them toward the NATO alliance.

Congratulations.

 

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Also, a worrying development is that America and Europe are ramping up their help to Ukraine, with more powerful weapons. This will decrease the probability of victory of Mr Putin and make him even more furious. A furious, cornered  reincarnation of Stalin means a more probable 3rd world war.

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Posted 8 hours ago Posted by McCoy:

The more the war goes on, the more Mr. Putin reveals his nature. What convinced me that he is but a more modern and sophisticated version of Stalin is

Hi McCoy!  I think that you're too hard on Stalin -- I'd say that Putin is probably the worst dictator of Russia

  --  Saul

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19 hours ago, Saul said:

Hi McCoy!  I think that you're too hard on Stalin -- I'd say that Putin is probably the worst dictator of Russia

Saul, at the beginning I wasn't so sure, but now I think you are probably right

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Putin sent missiles into Kiev at the end of Gutierrez's visit.

OK, Stalin has been left behind, LOL.

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Russian TV speaks about launching nuclear warheads into Europe, making it almost sound like launching a birdshot.

image.png.764aae2182bcf289ab7406f8d8380b30.png

Edited by mccoy

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Yuk!

Western Europe has far more nuclear ability, airplanes, and much more competent soldiers than Russia.  Not counting the elephant in the room, the USA.  Nato is united, and Finland and Sweden will probably be joining soon.  And, I would guess, later Ucraine.

  --  Saul

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23 hours ago, Saul said:

Yuk!

Western Europe has far more nuclear ability, airplanes, and much more competent soldiers than Russia.  Not counting the elephant in the room, the USA.  Nato is united, and Finland and Sweden will probably be joining soon.  And, I would guess, later Ucraine.

  --  Saul

The Russians are desperate. Well Putins ego is desperate. Sad commentary on humanity and how ego often trumps the rational. IAC, as Saul point out the response from the west would be devastating and the Russians have to know that. My take on it is simply a lot of hot air, hopefully!

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On 4/30/2022 at 2:49 PM, Mike41 said:

The Russians are desperate.

The Russians are not desperate, yet. At least not those in the main urban centers, where the impact of the war and the sanctions is still not felt much. Not yet, anyway. And the returning body bags go to villages in Siberia and the ethnic regions, not to Moscow or Saint Petersburg.

So the Russians are still in the throws of nationalistic fervor,  and Putin is still a "great leader" for the majority, and especially for the older folks, the religious, and the dimmer younger bulbs proud to show the middle finger to the West, while wanting what the West has.

Some rather astute observations can be heard here:
 

 

Edited by Ron Put

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What appears now clear, is that Putin promoted the brigade responsible for the Bucha massacre, promoted its commander to colonel, then sent them to the most dangerous battle zone, where they were apt to be obliterated. Apparently, that's the way they settle those matters. No way the Hague tribunal is going to charge dead guys of war crimes.

image.png.38d9782920240c08a9b537f00c5d1bc4.png

Edited by mccoy

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I certainly won’t excuse Putins war. However I AM upset of NATO/USA Actions during and after the breakup of the USSR. At that time Russia was moving in a positive direction and our response was to close in on their boRDERS WITH NATOIZATION. . Not a wise choice at that time IMO. It certainly motivated support for Putin .

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4 hours ago, mccoy said:

What appears now clear, is that Putin promoted the brigade responsible for the Bucha massacre, promoted its commander to colonel, then sent them to the most dangerous battle zone, where they were apt to be obliterated. Apparently, that's the way they settle those matters. No way the Hague tribunal is going to charge dead guys of war crimes.

Stalin purged a lot of generals.  Putin reportedly fancies himself a modern Stalin, so perhaps one of his goals in the war is eliminating generals he has become wary of.  Perhaps they should remember the old admonition, "He who sups with the devil should have a long spoon."

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22 hours ago, corybroo said:

"He who sups with the devil should have a long spoon."

One of the eliminated generals might be Gerasimov, the supreme commander of military forces in Russia. He wasn't present today at the 9th of May celebrations. It's just speculation but not an unreasonable one given the premises...

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