Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global war?

[mccoy]

We have apparently just left behind the worst of the pandemic, unfortunately, some grim and surely more serious scenery may be at large: the 3rd world war.

Europe would be hit very bad. But a war between Russia and NATO (potentially dragging in more nations) would have heavy repercussions on global economy, supplies, occupation, availability of goods, we name it.

What would you do? Hoarding basic foods? Drawing bank accounts? Hoarding supplements or medicines? Grow your own food? Rigging up solar panels? 

FIrst thing I would do is to order a Geiger counter, since the use of nuclear missiles may increase the radioactivity background globally. It would also be useful to detect contaminated food.

In the worst-case scenario, our discussions about longevity may turn into discussions about sheer survival.

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by mccoy

[corybroo]

5 hours ago, mccoy said:

some grim and surely more serious scenery may be at large: the 3rd world war.

If you (very reasonably) expect appeasement to work as well in this century as it did in the previous, then on the present course, WW III is inevitable.  The only alternative is some sort of internal change in Russia where political strife avoids the total devastation of nuclear war.  Indeed, nearly twenty years ago, the book Stalin’s Last Crime  New Study Supports Idea Stalin Was Poisoned was published.  The book suggests that warfarin, a tasteless, colorless blood thinner, was added to his wine and was the cause of the extensive stomach hemorrhaging.  Also contributing to his demise was his planned physicians purge that left those near him afraid to be the one who called for a doctor.  One doctor later reported his interrogation was interrupted when they starting asking for medical advice for treating Stalin’s condition.  The True Story of the Death of Stalin

Of course, far more details are known to Putin and I’ve read that his security is vastly better than Stalin’s so there is not much hope for a small convulsion.  Look how Hitler was willing to destroy everyone and everything around him to delay the inevitable.  History makes scary reading at present.

[mccoy]

Corybroo, thanks for the references about Stalin's death, I used to be an avid reader of history.

I too believe there is very little probability of a coup in Russia. Putin is vastly rich (by having stolen so much public money) and he must have a personal army devoted to his security.

The more immediate danger for Putin would be to lose this war, so he may do anything to avoid that, including launching nuclear warheads.

[Ron Put]

It's dangerous to make predictions, but my guess is that a global war is not highly likely.

Russia, despite its imperial ambitions, is not a superpower. Its economy is the size of Italy's and while it has lower internal costs, it cannot sustain a protracted war. With sanctions in place and with the exodus of some of its best and brightest, it also lacks the high-tech know-how to remain competitive.

Putin may be a dying man in a hurry, and that makes him dangerous. It also means that attempts at apeasement won't work. But Russia's army is no match for NATO's troops. The war has not yet really impacted the major cities in Russia, but once they run out of Syrians and Chechens to do the dirty work, and of Siberian peasant conscripts, body bags with middle-class kids from Moscow and St. Petersburg will have an impact on the current nationalist fervor. The West should make sure that it provides better military equipment to Ukraine, and be ready to rebuild it after the destruction that the Russians are sowing there. My heart goes out to the Ukrainians.

China is not ready for war and Xi is not stupid, so I think Russia will be largely on its own. India will have to eventually make a choice, and if it makes the wrong choice, there should be real consequences.

My guess is that we are in a new Cold War, but other than Russia, nobody else has an appetite for a global hot war. 

[Ron Put]

For those interested in 20th-century Russian history, and especially in Stalin, the best I have read is Stephen Kotkin's "Stalin" (the last volume is not out yet). He is probably my favorite Russian historian and analyst currently.

Here are videos discussing the first two Stalin volumes (it's a large body of work):

Volume I, part 1:
 

Volume I, part 2:
 

Volume II part 1:
 

Volume II part 2:
 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Ron Put

[mccoy]

Thanks, what I know of Stalin is mainly derived from Robert Conquest's biography. It's a single volume, but enough to depict the demonic nature of this being.

 

 

[mccoy]

Robert Conquest defined Stalin as broadly and generously anti-human. This definition seems to apply to Putin as well.

[mccoy]

18 hours ago, Ron Put said:

Russia, despite its imperial ambitions, is not a superpower. Its economy is the size of Italy's and while it has lower internal costs, it cannot sustain a protracted war. With sanctions in place and with the exodus of some of its best and brightest, it also lacks the high-tech know-how to remain competitive.

Putin may be a dying man in a hurry, and that makes him dangerous. It also means that attempts at apeasement won't work. But Russia's army is no match for NATO's troops. The war has not yet really impacted the major cities in Russia, but once they run out of Syrians and Chechens to do the dirty work, and of Siberian peasant conscripts, body bags with middle-class kids from Moscow and St. Petersburg will have an impact on the current nationalist fervor. The West should make sure that it provides better military equipment to Ukraine, and be ready to rebuild it after the destruction that the Russians are sowing there. My heart goes out to the Ukrainians.

I agree with all the above. However, Putin seems to be in the phase of a dictator's life where hubris overcomes any common sense. It was in the worse interests of his nation to engage in the Ukrainian war, yet he did it and didn't want to hear contrary suggestions. He threw to the wind all his economic influence and power in the energy market in Europe. He had many European politicians in his pocket and might have ensured prosperity for his country for the years to come.

So, it is difficult to foresee his next moves, with the aggravating fact that, as you say, he may be at the end of his life or career.

In the meanwhile, Russia cut the supply of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria. It may be a bluff. Cutting all European supplies means renouncing to nearly one billion dollars per day

Edited April 28, 2022 by mccoy

[Saintor]

To answer the question, I believe that I should.

Two folds; accumulate provisions and sell our house, too close from a large city.

Imagine this scenario; a nuclear detonation in Europe and that mad Putin continuing to make nuclear threats to all major countries that got involved indirectly, including America, on a weekly basis.

Possible outcome?   .... people fleeing from large cities.   Worst outcome?   .... hundreds of nuclear detonations around the world including my area (I am 12 miles from a large city) ... meaning 100Ks of dead bodies nearby not talking about the radiations.  Hundreds of satellites would be attacked and destroyed.  Supply chains would be reduced to an unacceptable level.

Without being necessarily a republican, I believe that Biden/Harris are way more dangerous than the Trump/Pence.   I don't think that Putin would have done this under Trump and Biden's medical condition is fragile, showing way too many 'senior moments'.  

2022 looks horribly grim.