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The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers


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The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers

Abstract

Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896–1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We observed level hazard curves, which were essentially constant beyond age 105. Our estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation that limited earlier studies and provide the best evidence to date for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans.

 

 

This made the rounds of the popular press today with some creative headlines ;)

 

"Scientists Look Again, Still Don’t Find Cap on Human Lifespan"

 

Have Humans Reached Their Limit on Life Span? These Researchers Say No.

 

We’re still far away from finding a limit to human lifespan

Edited by Gordo
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Eh, it seems pretty meaningless to me, I was mostly just amused by the popular press headlines.  Does it really matter if by age 105 your chance of dying flatlines at 50% for any given year thereafter?  That means if you live to 105 you have a statistical 1% chance of living to 115 and a 0.003% chance of living to 120.  So what?

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Note that paper is based on " all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896–1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. " So, some geographic/ethnographic factors ... Mediterranean diet, etc.???
 

The Sciencemag audio podcast, with author, condenses the new "plateau" paper (but reveals more details than Abstract).

It  is here:

http://www.sciencemag.org/podcast/increasing-transparency-animal-research-sway-public-opinion-and-reaching-plateau-human

 

Podcast reveals some details:

By far, most of the 3836 "cases"  (>3400!!) are women. Men kick off earlier.

Other animal subjects also reveal plateaus.

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