Gordo Posted June 29, 2018 Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 (edited) The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers Abstract Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896–1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We observed level hazard curves, which were essentially constant beyond age 105. Our estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation that limited earlier studies and provide the best evidence to date for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans. This made the rounds of the popular press today with some creative headlines ;) "Scientists Look Again, Still Don’t Find Cap on Human Lifespan" Have Humans Reached Their Limit on Life Span? These Researchers Say No. We’re still far away from finding a limit to human lifespan Edited June 29, 2018 by Gordo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccoy Posted June 29, 2018 Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 Those findings sound contrary to the Aubrey De Greys' hypothesis of a natural hazard spike at about 114. Or maybe the plateau exists from 105 to 115... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo Posted June 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 Eh, it seems pretty meaningless to me, I was mostly just amused by the popular press headlines. Does it really matter if by age 105 your chance of dying flatlines at 50% for any given year thereafter? That means if you live to 105 you have a statistical 1% chance of living to 115 and a 0.003% chance of living to 120. So what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KHashmi317 Posted June 29, 2018 Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 Note that paper is based on " all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896–1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. " So, some geographic/ethnographic factors ... Mediterranean diet, etc.??? The Sciencemag audio podcast, with author, condenses the new "plateau" paper (but reveals more details than Abstract). It is here: http://www.sciencemag.org/podcast/increasing-transparency-animal-research-sway-public-opinion-and-reaching-plateau-human Podcast reveals some details: By far, most of the 3836 "cases" (>3400!!) are women. Men kick off earlier. Other animal subjects also reveal plateaus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccoy Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 What I can tell is that, after world war 2, the average Italian diet has turned into a disaster: too much meat, too many refined cereals, people starting to eat fewer and fewer vegetables, too many sweets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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