Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[TomBAvoider]

Well, Sweden is unrepentant:

As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on

"Tegnell even questions whether stopping the progress of the virus is desirable. “We are just trying to slow it, because this disease will never go away. If you manage, like South Korea, to get rid of it, even they say that they count on it coming back. Stopping it might even be negative, because you would have a pent-up possible spread of the disease, and then once you open the gates, there is a possibility that there would be an even worse outcome.”

While Tegnell understands that he will be blamed if Sweden ends up in a similar situation to that of Italy, he refuses to be panicked. “I wouldn’t be too surprised if it ended up about the same way for all of us, irrespective of what we’re doing,” he says. “I’m not so sure that what we’re doing is affecting the spread very much. But we will see.”

[Dean Pomerleau]

Here is an interview with an epidemiologist from India about the likely course of the disease in his country, and the impact of Modi's lockdown. He's not optimistic:

But, certainly, the conditions for a rapid spread of the disease are all there in the urban areas. And, without question, it’s likely that it will just rip through the population, unless something fundamentally changes in the virus itself in India, for which we have no real evidence.

--Dean

[Dean Pomerleau]

Would you sign up for a "human challenge" study of covid-19? Some scientists are advocating for it [1]. The idea is to expose subjects to the virus after receiving an experimental vaccine to speed up efficacy trials relative to just giving the vaccine or placebo to a large number of people and waiting to see if they are differentially susceptible to contracting the virus when going about their lives. The obvious downside of such a challenge trial is the risk of long term health consequences or even death, especially if you are in the placebo group or the vaccine turns out to be ineffective. 

Some scientists are saying challenge trials wouldn't speed up vaccine development that much. Given how widely and rapidly it is spreading you wouldn't need too big a study or too long to see whether a vaccine is effective, particularly if tests are conducted among at-risk individuals like healthcare workers.

Nevertheless an acquaintance of mine has set up a sign up website for anyone willing to consider participating in such a challenge trial. I'm probably too old to qualify but I signed up anyway. If assuming such a risk could speed up the development of a safe and efficacious vaccine, it has the potential to save many lives and get the world back on its feet sooner. So I'm in.

--Dean

-----------

[1] Human challenge studies to accelerate coronavirus vaccine licensure 
Nir Eyal, Marc Lipsitch, Peter G Smith
The Journal of Infectious Diseases, jiaa152, 
Published: 31 March 2020

https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152

Abstract
Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional Phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. Obviously, challenging volunteers with this live virus risks inducing severe disease and possibly even death. However, we argue that such studies, by accelerating vaccine evaluation, could reduce the global burden of coronavirus-related mortality and morbidity. Volunteers in such studies could autonomously authorize the risks to themselves, and their net risk could be acceptable if participants comprise healthy young adults, who are at relatively low risk of serious disease following natural infection, they have a high baseline risk of natural infection, and during the trial they receive frequent monitoring and, following any infection, the best available care.

[Mike41]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html?referringSource=articleShare

 

This article suggests minimal exposure to the virus may actually be good! A large exposure, lots of viruses,  could have something to do with who gets the sickest! 

[BrianA]

This NHK Japan report (unfortunately very low-res, but it does have English captions you can turn on) demonstrates via a couple of different visualization methods how micro-droplets can linger around in the air for lengthy periods of time in any enclosed space.

 

 

[Sibiriak]

13 hours ago, Mike41 said:

A large exposure, lots of viruses,  could have something to do with who gets the sickest! 

That point has important implications.    Eg,  Even if  a surgical mask or homemade mask isn't entirely effective (compared to an N95 etc.),  it's still worth wearing one to reduce exposure and transmission.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Sibiriak

[mccoy]

8 hours ago, Sibiriak said:

That point has important implications.    Eg,  Even if  a surgical mask or homemade mask isn't entirely effective (compared to an N95 etc.),  it's still worth wearing one to reduce exposure and transmission.

I really believe it will start being a trend. Presently, the evolution of things will probably be that restrictive measures will be relaxed little by little , just what's necessary not to cause another peak in the infected and not to overwhelm the hospitals and ICIS. From that, it descends that the masks and respirators will become a necessary dressing accessory for the next couple of years maybe. They may be made mandatory to don in public places. I myself, who dress exclusively in blue hues, as soon as they'll be available am going to order blue masks. And companies no doubt will start producing designers' masks, and so on.

Edited April 4, 2020 by mccoy

[Sibiriak]

Detroit bus driver who complained about a coughing passenger dies of coronavirus days later

Quote

Jason Hargrove could not hide his outrage at the passenger whom he said openly coughed on his bus in the middle of a pandemic.  In between shifts last month, Hargrove, a city bus driver with the Detroit Department of Transportation, recounted in an obscenity-laden Facebook video how a woman onboard had just coughed in front of him and other passengers, even as the novel coronavirus continued to spread across the United States.

“We out here as public workers, doing our job, trying to make an honest living to take care of our families,” he said on March 21, “but for you to get on the bus and stand on the bus and cough several times without covering up your mouth, and you know we’re in the middle of a pandemic, that let’s me know that some folks don’t care.”

“I don’t know how you can watch [the video] and not tear up,” Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (D) said at a Thursday news conference. “He knew his life was being put in jeopardy … by someone who didn’t take this seriously and now he’s gone.”

13,000 Carpenters to Strike in Massachusetts [Because coronavirus]

Hospital Bailouts Begin…for Those Owned by Private Equity Firms

Coronavirus: Potential vaccine generates enough antibodies to fight off virus, first peer-reviewed study suggests

Quote

[...]The scientists were able to act quickly because they had already laid the groundwork during earlier epidemics of coronaviruses: Sars in 2003 and Mers in 2014.

“These two viruses, which are closely related to [Covid-19], teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus,” said Andrea Gambotto, associate professor of surgery at the Pittsburgh School of Medicine.

The vaccine candidate, which the authors are calling PittCoVacc, uses lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity in the same way as a flu jab.

To increase potency, the researchers also used a new drug delivery approach involving of a fingertip-sized patch of 400 tiny microneedles that inject the spike protein pieces into the skin, where the immune reaction is strongest. The patch is stuck on like a plaster and the needles – which are made entirely of sugar and the protein pieces – simply dissolve into the skin.

[...] Once manufactured, PittCoVacc can sit at room temperature until it is needed, eliminating the need for refrigeration during transport or storage, the researchers said.

“For most vaccines, you don’t need to address scalability to begin with,” Prof Gambotto said. “But when you try to develop a vaccine quickly against a pandemic that’s the first requirement.”

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Sibiriak

[KHashmi316]

Those who participated in the WUSTL/Fontana CR human study -- 2002-2008?? --  may remember their stay at WUSTL's Barnes-Jewish hospital.

This hospital was in the news recently (NPR Science Friday) pertaining to COVID 19:

You can play the podcast here:

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/583350334/science-friday

Quote

During the global COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals across the country are running low on PPE—personal protective equipment. This includes masks, gowns, face shields, and other important gear to keep healthcare workers safe. These supplies are the first line of defense between healthcare workers and potentially sick patients. Cloth masks are usually only advised as a last resort for healthcare workers, but an increasing number of hospitals are seeking them out. Some hospitals, including Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis—the largest hospital in Missouri—are anticipating a tsunami of COVID-19 cases in the weeks ahead. To get ready, it's watching and taking lessons from the experiences of hospitals in coronavirus hotspots, like New York City. One big example is turning to homemade cloth masks to fill oncoming PPE shortages. A homegrown effort called the Million Masks Challenge has sprung up amidst the crisis. Volunteers are pulling out their sewing machines and extra fabric to make masks that are sent to healthcare providers. And a new website, GetPPE.org, has launched to connect crafters with hospitals across the country that are asking for homemade face masks. Joining Ira to talk about the PPE crisis and how hospitals are preparing are Rob Poirier, clinical chief of emergency medicine at Barnes-Jewish Hospital and Jessica Choi, founder of GetPPE.org. 

 

[KHashmi316]

21 hours ago, Mike41 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html?referringSource=articleShare

This article suggests minimal exposure to the virus may actually be good! A large exposure, lots of viruses,  could have something to do with who gets the sickest! 

Hmmm ... well a minimal dose for CV infection has not been scientifically established yet ... afaik. 

But that does not stop the entertainers ...

 

[TomBAvoider]

This is more for Dean: from my neck of the woods, LA CA, anothe report. These days I've noticed a very large number of people sitting in their cars, parked along residential streets. They listen to the radio or their own music, some smoke, some eat fast food, some just hang out.

I jog along streets, sometimes on the sidewalk, but given how many people do the same, I often have to run on the street itself, just so I can avoid passing too close to other joggers, dogwalkers etc. Now there is a new danger in that you pass parked cars and the driver's window is open and someone is sitting in the car and you pass very closely just as you avoided the people on the sidewalk. So you have to be very vigilant in looking and giving a wider berth as you pass those cars - running against the traffic, so it can be tricky and you have to be very careful. The other thing are the idiots who sit in their cars while the car is running stenching up the neighborhood - I jog a several block circle of 2 miles twice, for a total of about 40 minutes, and pass these guys 20 minutes apart, and they're still running their engines just sitting there. This is when I'm grateful for my anti-pollution mask (thanks for the recommendation, Khurram!). I wish gas was like $20 a gallon so morons wouldn't sit for hours idling their cars - there's one idiot two streets from where I live who sits in his huge truck generating plumes of smoke for hours on end, probably single-handedly undoes the pollution savings of a thousand cars not on the road during the pandemic.

I figure folks sit in their cars as an alternative to being cooped up with family/roommates with whom they don't get along, so it's like a few hours respite from the enforced containment, since cafes and such are closed except for takeout.

[KHashmi316]

1 hour ago, TomBAvoider said:

This is when I'm grateful for my anti-pollution mask (thanks for the recommendation, Khurram!).

Glad we discussed the mask before the pandemic came Stateside. How coincidental! Now with this pandemic in full swing, I have noticed quite a few people with similar masks. One of my complaints (from prev discussion) was cost and availability as well as some fitting, breathing, and social-acceptance issues. Hopefully, now, with the increased demand, the technology improves as well as economies of scale.

About folks in cars... actually, as a biker, I've noticed that for quite while now, especially since smartphones exploded. I often see those "parkers" engaged with their phones. Maybe they're in a free wifi hotspot. 

On that note, I wonder if free wifi spots are still active for closed stores, cafes and libraries? 

Edited April 4, 2020 by KHashmi316

[TomBAvoider]

Right, the folks on their phone and/or laptop have always been around, but free wi-fi tends to be along streets with retail establishments. When I bike I'm always paranoid that as I'm passing a car someone is going to open their door, and it'll be a giant oops. But now I see tons and tons - and definitely more than before - sitting in cars on residential streets, this seems to me connected somehow to the pandemic, because they're less likely to have free wi-fi in residential neighborhoods, and often they're eating and so on. YMMV.

[BrianA]

Since I haven't otherwise been using my car, I've been just rolling it out of the garage once a week and letting it idle 15 min to keep the battery charged. Probably more than it needs, but the battery in it is over 6 yrs old so I don't trust it.

[TomBAvoider]

Maybe this could be useful? 

TACKLIFE T8 800A Peak 18000mAh Car Jump Starter (up to 7.0L Gas, 5.5L Diesel Engine) with LCD Screen, USB Quick Charge, 12V Auto Battery Booster, Portable Power Pack with Built-in LED Light

Seems like it would be less hassle then rolling the car out every so often - maybe?

[BrianA]

Well you don't want to let the battery get so low it needs a jump start, because on an older battery it may not really recover from that. I could instead buy a battery tender device, but at the current cost of gas and how little gas the car uses when idling, it might take a couple years to recoup even that small cost. Plus I'm not sure but I might need to take additional steps to fully setup the car for a longer period of non-use if I'm not starting it... would have to research that. I don't sit in the car while idling it, don't want to breathe the exhaust. Just leave it in the driveway for 15 min while I go back inside, not a big deal.

 

For people in a denser neighborhood where they have to park on the street then I can see why none of this an option due to no electrical socket nearby and also risk of theft if they leave it. So that may be why you're seeing people sitting there.

Edited April 4, 2020 by BrianA

[TomBAvoider]

Hmm. I see people sitting in new cars, idling for a really long time (minimum 40 minutes that I can tell, because that's how long my jog is). Is it an issue with very long time disuse? Because I've left for like 3 months vacation and came back and the car starts up no prob. Although I suppose I haven't tried doing it for 6 months or anything, so I guess that's when it might be an issue.

Edited April 4, 2020 by TomBAvoider

[BrianA]

I''m sure some of the people you see are also just wanting time alone, I've heard reports of domestic violence have increased quite a bit in locked down areas. On the car battery, I'm sure it could go quite a bit longer than a week, I'm just being more cautious than usual because I don't want to have to deal with having a repair person work on it during one of the pandemic's peak phases, or finding it dead if there's some kind of unexpected emergency that needs me to drive to work or other family.

 

BTW, my car dealer keeps desperately emailing its customers that they now have no-contact service pickups/deliveries and will let you test drive a new one by yourself now.

[Sibiriak]

President Trump still has high hopes for hydroxychloroquine and is acting to secure supplies in case it does turn out to be useful.

From his April 4th news conference:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donald Trump: (19:49)
HHS continues to speed the development of therapies derived from human blood that have the potential to lessen the severity or shorten the length of the illness. And as you know, last Saturday the FDA also gave emergency authorization for hydroxy chloroquine and the hydroxy chloroquine is a, I hope it’s going to be a very important answer. We’re having some very good things happening with it and we’re going to be distributing it through the strategic national stockpile.

It’s going into these strategic national stockpile to treat certain patients and we have millions and millions of doses of it, 29 million to be exact. In addition to that, we’re making it and we’re also getting it from various other locations and countries. In one case I called Prime Minister Modi of India this morning, they make large amounts of hydroxy chloroquine very large amounts frankly.

Donald Trump: (21:02)
And I said, they had a hold because you know they have 1.5 billion people and they think a lot of it and I said I’d appreciate if they would release the amounts that we ordered and they are giving it serious consideration. But India makes a lot of it, but we have already 29 million, if you look it’s a big number, 29 million doses and we’ve got millions of doses that are being made here and many millions of doses that are made elsewhere that are being shipped here and it will be arriving. We’re just hearing really positive stories and we’re continuing to collect the data, but I’ll just speak for myself. It’s been out for a long time.

Donald Trump: (21:53) 

It’s a malaria drug. It’s also a drug for lupus and there’s a study out that people with lupus aren’t catching this horrible virus, they’re not affected so much by it. Now, maybe that’s correct. Maybe it’s false. You’re going to have to check it out, but there’s a lot of very positive things happening with that. That’s a game changer. If that’s the case, obviously we continue to work on the vaccines, but the vaccines have to be down the road by probably 14, 15, 16 months.

 

Dr. Hahn: (28:04)
Thank you, Mr. President. I’m going to speak about hydroxychloroquine and the efforts around that. Just a preface, I’d like to echo what the president said about the American people, and the resiliency, and the just terrific work. Mitigation is such an important part of our fight against the COVID-19 virus.

Last week as the president said, we issued an emergency use authorization to allow the donated hydroxychloroquine to come into the country and enter the general circulation. We are prioritizing this drug to come in for clinical trials, also to general use for physicians because, as you know, physicians, based upon their interaction with the patients, their assessment of the risks and benefits, can write a prescription for hydroxychloroquine if they think it’s appropriate for that patient.

Being a physician, we do this all the time, and that assessment needs to be done between a patient and a doctor.

And then the third portion is we wanted to make sure that these drugs were in the supply chain so that people who have them or need them for the other indications, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, had them available. So that was the purpose of the emergency use authorization.

 

Speaker 21: (01:01:57)
Yeah. If you have lupus, do you have a greater chance of getting coronavirus?

Dr. Fauci: (01:01:59)
Yeah. Yeah. Right now this is being looked at in a natural history study. We don’t have any definitive information to be able to make any comment on that. It’s an obvious good question because it might be a way for us to get some interesting and potentially important data as to the role of those medications, but that’s something that is now being looked at, but we don’t have any data to be able to say anything definitively.

Donald Trump: (01:02:24)
And I hope they use the hydroxychloroquine, and they can also do it with Z-Pak subject to your doctor’s approval and all of that. But I hope they use it because, I’ll tell you what, what do you have to lose? In some cases they’re in bad shape. What do you have to lose? It’s been out there for a long time and I hope they use it and they’re going to look at the … With doctors, work with doctors, get what you have to get.

 But we have it stockpiled and we have a lot of it and we’re getting more of it. And as I told you, I spoke to Prime Minister Modi. We’re getting more of it, but we have a lot of it and I hope they use it because it’s been used for a long time and therefore it’s passed the safety test. FDA has been terrific. Dr Hahn, I appreciate it very much, too.

 But I’ve seen some results now. It’s early, I guess. It’s early, and they should look at the lupus thing. I don’t know what it says, but there’s a rumor out there that, because it takes care of lupus very effectively as I understand it. It’s a drug that’s used for lupus.

Donald Trump: (01:03:27)
So there’s a study out there that says people that have lupus haven’t been catching this virus. No. Maybe it’s true. Maybe it’s not. Why don’t you investigate that?

Donald Trump: (01:03:36)
And there’s also other studies with the malaria that the malaria countries have very little people that take this drug for malaria, which is very effective for malaria, that those countries have very little of this virus. I don’t know. You’re going to check it out. But I think people should … If it were me, in fact, I might do it anyway. I may take it. Okay. I may take it, and I’ll have to ask my doctors about that, but I may take it.

Donald Trump: (01:31:52)
One of the reasons that I keep talking about hydroxychloroquine is that the question that nobody ever asks, and the question that I most hate the answer to is what happens if you do have a ventilator? What are your chances? I just hope that hydroxychloroquine wins.

Coupled with perhaps the Z pack, as we call it, dependent totally on your doctors, and the doctors there.

Donald Trump: (01:32:27)
Because you know the answer to that question. If you do have the ventilator, you know the answer to that question. I hate giving the answer, so I don’t want to get them there. I don’t want to get them there. There’s a possibility, a possibility, and I say it. What do you have to lose? I’ll say it again. What do you have to lose? Take it. I really think they should take it, but it’s their choice, and it’s their doctor’s choice or the doctors in the hospital. But hydroxychloroquine. Try it, if you’d like.

Donald Trump: (01:33:04)
The other thing, if you have a heart condition, I understand probably you stay away from the Z pack. But that’s an antibiotic. It can clean out the lungs. The lungs are a point of attack for this horrible virus. But when you have a ventilator, don’t ask the answer because I hate it if you have it and it’s working beautifully. I don’t like the answer because it’s not a very high percentage. So I want to keep them out of ventilators.

If this drug works, it will be, not a game changer, because that’s not a nice enough term. It will be wonderful. It’ll be so beautiful. It’ll be a gift from heaven if it works. Because when people go into those ventilators, you know the answers. I know the answers, and I’m glad you don’t write about it.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Sibiriak]

As portrayed in much of the Western "liberal" press,  Trump's  advocacy of hydroxychloroquine is simply irrational demagoguery.    For example, after Trump's latest press conference, The Guardian went with this blistering headline:

Trump tells Americans to take unproven anti-malaria drug – as it happened

Quote

The president’s belief in the possibility that hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, might be an effective treatment for Covid-19 is not shared with his leading public health experts on the White House task force. [ignoring Dr. Hahn's statement--Sib]

On Fox News on Friday, infectious diseases expert Dr Anthony Fauci said: “We still need to do the definitive studies to determine whether any intervention, not just this one, is truly safe and effective. But when you don’t have that information, it’s understandable why people might want to take something anyway even with the slightest hint of being effective.”

Edited April 5, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Sibiriak]

Most coronavirus patients who end up on ventilators go on to die...

Quote

... according to several small studies from the U.S., China and Europe. And many of the patients who continue to live can't be taken off the mechanical breathing machines.

"It's very concerning to see how many patients who require ventilation do not make it out of the hospital," says Dr. Tiffany Osborn, a critical care specialist at Washington University in St. Louis who has been caring for coronavirus patients at Barnes-Jewish Hospital.

That concern is echoed by Negin Hajizadeh, a pulmonary critical care doctor at the Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell on Long Island, N.Y.  "We have had several patients between the hospitals across the Northwell system that have come off the breathing machine," Hajizadeh says. "But the vast majority are unable to."

The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive. The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived. And a study of 18 ventilated patients in Washington state found that nine were still alive when the study ended, but only six had recovered enough to breathe on their own.

All the early research suggests that once coronavirus patients are placed on a ventilator, they will probably need to stay on it for weeks. And the longer patients remain on a breathing machine, the more likely they are to die.

"We're not sure how much help ventilators are going to be," Osborn says. "They may help keep somebody alive in the short term. We're not sure if it's going to help keep someone alive in the long term." Patients need a ventilator when their lungs can no longer deliver enough oxygen to keep the body going. And it's an extreme measure, Osborn says. "We give sedation so the person goes to sleep. Then we provide a paralytic that stops their breathing," she says. Next, a long plastic tube is inserted through the trachea and vocal cords. That allows a machine to deliver small puffs of highly oxygenated air to the lungs.

Unfortunately, Osborn says, "the ventilator itself can do damage to the lung tissue based on how much pressure is required to help oxygen get processed by the lungs." And coronavirus patients often need dangerously high levels of both pressure and oxygen because their lungs have so much inflammation.  Another risk from being on a ventilator is that the tube carrying air and extra oxygen to the lungs provides a pathway for dangerous germs. Many ventilated patients get a new lung infection, a problem known as ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Ventilators have been seen as critical to treating coronavirus patients because the devices are very successful when used to treat common forms of pneumonia, says Hajizadeh."We treat patients for several days, and then we get the antibiotics into the body and the patient recovers," she says. "Unfortunately with this COVID-associated pneumonia, there are no treatments that we know work for sure."

Also, the coronavirus often does a lot more damage to a person's lungs than pneumonia associated with the flu. "There is fluid and other toxic chemicals, cytokines we call them, raging throughout the lung tissue," she says. In some patients, the damage is so bad that even ventilation won't help. So doctors have sometimes tried an even more extreme measure called extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or ECMO, which delivers oxygen directly to a patient's bloodstream.  But this is still a stopgap measure. "Remember, ECMO too is a life-supporting treatment," Hajizadeh says. "So it's a bridge while we are allowing the lung to heal itself from a pneumonia."

 

Quote

Two-thirds of coronavirus patients in the UK who need to be hooked up to a ventilator will die from the illness, official NHS data suggests. A report from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center (ICNARC) found ventilated patients succumb to the virus 66.3 per cent of the time.

 

Quote

[N.Y. Governor Cuomo:] If you go on a ventilator, there's roughly only a 20 percent chance that you will come off the ventilator.  The longer you're on the ventilator, the lower the chance you come off.

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Thomas G]

On 4/3/2020 at 2:55 PM, Dean Pomerleau said:

Nevertheless an acquaintance of mine has set up a sign up website for anyone willing to consider participating in such a challenge trial. I'm probably too old to qualify but I signed up anyway. If assuming such a risk could speed up the development of a safe and efficacious vaccine, it has the potential to save many lives and get the world back on its feet sooner. So I'm in.

 

Dean, you know Josh from Waitlist Zero?

I was just coming her to post this too. I signed up, but want to more carefully consider everything before actually going through with it.

Given that some epidemiologists are estimating as many as 30% to 80% of the population will get COVID-19 anyway, it seems like getting it for a worthy cause, surrounded by the best care available, and hopefully winding up with some level of immunity (either from the experimental vaccine itself, or from exposure as a part of the trail), is much better than sitting around at home and waiting to catch it and take your chances. But my understanding is that some of the experimental trails could have unpredictable and even worse results, so the risks are not exactly the same as catching it in the wild. Still seems like a worthwhile thing to do, however.

[Thomas G]

On 4/1/2020 at 11:26 PM, Sibiriak said:

I wouldn't expect a "revolution" any time soon in China,  or the US.

Revolutions are often impossible to see coming, but I think it is fair to say that there will be several revolutions around the world (not sure if they will be China or US) where the pandemic played a key contributing factor.

Many of our systems cannot take that much stress, and right now they are being overwhelmed. Many will collapse, including governments. But I expect some revolutions won't happen for a few years.

A million dominos are falling in a million directions. There is no telling what they might knock over but there is a virtual guarantee that A LOT of things will get knocked over.

[TomBAvoider]

Indeed there's a very high degree of unpredictability here when it comes to the political situation. So much depends on how the economy shakes out, how good the politicians in charge at the moment are in controlling the public discourse, pr and survival skills. There's also pure luck, and it all can't possibly be calculated.

The best we can do is attempt to identify broad trends. If the economy sustains huge damage - on the level of the Great Depression - it would provide the kindling for drastic political changes. But it still needs oxygen for a full fire - which is: how do the policians react? During the 1920's and 30's, you had the Republicans behaving especially clumsily and they got clobbered in the PR department, while FDR was a superb politicians - so the Repubs got taken to the cleaners. Now the situation is reversed - the Democrats are possibly the worst politicians the republic has thrown up in a 100 years, and the Republicans, while not great, are taking advantage of it (although Trump is a pretty exceptionally intuitive politician - credit where credit is due). 

The pandemic has exposed structural weaknesses of our system. The reformers - the Democrats - are epically bad at politics, so they can't capitalize on this situation where the system has shown itself in such dire need of reform. So all the Republicans - who are largely, though not exclusively responsible for these weaknesses - have to do, in face of such monumentally weak Democratic opposition, is to hold on fast and deflect all blame. This strikes me as a recipe for an ignominious deterioration and misery, but not revolution. 

Meanwhile China seems to still hold the allegiance of the majority of the population, having delivered on the bargain "economic growth and well being in exchange for political control" - and this blip is not enough to upset that bargain. 

But hey, it's all speculation - the degree of uncertainty is high enough, that anything can happen and we have no right to be surprised.

And back to the U.S. - we don't even know how badly the economy will be impacted. It'll be bad, but how bad? A sharp V-shape recovery looks increasingly unlikely, but it probably won't be the Great Depression either. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Mike41]

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf

The take on severity of covid by age etc.