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Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?


Gordo

Covid-19 Vaccine Survey  

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1 hour ago, Gordo said:

The modern (or U.S.) version is much different from what you know.  Its more like a thing you just install on any regular toilet, hook it up to your water supply line (installation only takes 15 to 20 minutes), then you turn a dial after your BM, and just blast yourself clean.  It's highly effective, water pressure is variable as you turn the dial.  You might think that would shoot stuff all over the place but it doesn't.  Its way more hygienic than using TP.

KK, neat, I'll have to look it up.

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More unpleasant news. Doctors in hospitals IC sections are starting to review the exclusion procedures: if IC units are no more enough for everyone, they'll start excluding those with lesser life expectancy, according to specific protocols. In a few words, the older and more sick will be left to their fate.

Edited by mccoy
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China researchers found via bus surveillance video and case tracing that the virus can spread airborne for around 15 feet in confined areas like a bus. Also can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes. 1 infected passenger infected 8 other people on the bus. Passengers wearing masks weren't infected.

 

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

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On 1/29/2020 at 2:28 PM, Ron Put said:

My take is, Amazon will deliver on schedule even in time of plague....

Hoarding is likely to simply lead to a lot of wasted food and possibly short term shortages, if people in a given location panic.

This is what is happening here in Australia! 
We usually have about 3 weeks supply of our staple in the pantry...
But people have gone crazy with TOILET paper of all things! It's kinda funny - but at the same time, kinda sad and really selfish! 
Surely there's better things to stock up on than toilet paper so I don't understand people's thinking! I've seen people in the shops with literally hundreds and hundreds of rolls!!!!!!! The grocery stores have now set a limit of one bag per customer! 

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Regarding face masks - presumably there is quite a bit of variation as to how effective they are. There are those masks which don't have a firm seal - f.ex. many of the masks used commonly in construction, carpentry and the like, which are N95 respirator type masks with or without exhaust valves, is what I think most people have bought or have access to. Here is a detailed article from the FDA regarding N95 respirators and surgical masks which compares use scenarios and recommendations. Note, that surgical masks are seen as very crude barriers even compared to N95 respirators and those in turn are *NOT* recommended as virus barriers, specifically mentioning the CORONA-19 virus:

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks

Now, by complete coincidence, I just recently (a few weeks ago) purchased a Techno Anti-Pollution Mask:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000OYFUDY/

which supposedly has "the highest degree of filtration" whatever that meaningless marketing term means, but apparently it exceeds the N95 specifications. I originally purchased it as a defensive measure against air pollution while exercising (jogging) and I have a HEPA air purifier machine at home, the COWAY AP-1512HH which had the highest recommendation by Wirecutters testing team:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01728NLRG/

But my understanding is that the biggest vector of virus transference is touching of surfaces out there and then touching your face. I guess that would argue for wearing some kind of latex gloves or something and then disposing of them as you get home if you are really paranoid.

The other thing, I wonder if the nose/mouth are the prime areas for infection, but how about eyes? The tissue in the eyelid/eye might become infected? I mean if that is so, then just wearing a mask that covers your nose/mouth might not be enough. I mean, how far are people going to take this - full body suits or what?

Avoiding crowds, avoiding touching of surfaces (insofar as it's possible to manage!) seem to be low level precautionary measures, but if the virus becomes endemic, it seems it might not be easy to avoid getting infected at some point, because it's always around. If the virus keeps evolving similar to cold or flu viruses, then even if you develop immunity against it, it might only last until the next iteration of the virus starts the cycle all over again. 

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3 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

The other thing, I wonder if the nose/mouth are the prime areas for infection, but how about eyes? The tissue in the eyelid/eye might become infected? I mean if that is so, then just wearing a mask that covers your nose/mouth might not be enough. I mean, how far are people going to take this - full body suits or what?

Avoiding crowds, avoiding touching of surfaces (insofar as it's possible to manage!) seem to be low level precautionary measures, but if the virus becomes endemic, it seems it might not be easy to avoid getting infected at some point, because it's always around. If the virus keeps evolving similar to cold or flu viruses, then even if you develop immunity against it, it might only last until the next iteration of the virus starts the cycle all over again. 

Tomb, that's the reasoning of virologist and I myself have realized that it is an impossible task to disinfect everything while working, for example, and being outside. There are simply too many occasions for the transfer of viruses. We may use latex gloves outside but if you touch your cell phone then it may become infected and you'll have to disinfect it and so on and so forth. And of course, if we wear a mask we should wear eye protection as well. With a gasket around the eyes. Or even a full facial mask.

 

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This morning the prime minister announced a full quarantine for the whole Italian country. 60 million people in lockdown. All congregations are forbidden . Traveling outside our residence counties will be liable to fine and arrest if unjustified. Even gyms must close down. Public places and eateries must close at 6:30 PM. Supermarkets will remain open and the distribution chain unaltered as much as possible. Toilet paper will not run out of the shelves, hopefully, LOL.

So far, simple walking outside is allowed, but discouraged.

 

Edited by mccoy
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Looks like TP is the new gold in this time of pandemia. Written by an american guy in another forum:

 

Quote

In Western WA, there have been reports of the warehouse stores (like Costco) where people hoarding things like toilet paper, hand sanitizer, etc, actually is causing a shortage!

And, sorry if I cannot resist, but what posted above by the user SandyP is officially confirmed!!

image.png.63f24b5f98ea530acc695cba0696a592.png

Edited by mccoy
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7 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

my understanding is that the biggest vector of virus transference is touching of surfaces out there and then touching your face. I guess that would argue for wearing some kind of latex gloves or something and then disposing of them

 

Tomb, one strategy I ran across:   carry a pack of tissue papers or similar with you;  then, say, after you wash your hands you  need to open a door or something,  use the tissue paper to avoid contact and then fold it and dispose of it immediately.   This lets you save the more inconvenient  glove use for more extended contact situations. If you do touch something without protection,  wash your hands immediately or use alcohol-gel.  Use alcohol wipes to keep phone etc disinfected.  Start training yourself not to automatically touch your face with your hands.  It's all about reducing the odds.

Edited by Sibiriak
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13 hours ago, BrianA said:

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds  [...] Passengers wearing masks weren't infected. 

 

"The possible reason is that in a completely enclosed space, the airflow is mainly driven by the hot air generated by the air conditioning. The rise of the hot air can transport the virus-laden droplets to a greater distance," the paper reads.

"When riding on more closed public transportation such as subways, cars, planes, etc, you should wear a mask all the time, and at the same time, minimise the contact between your hands and public areas, and avoid touching your face before cleaning."

Edited by Sibiriak
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Virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 ( March 08, 2020 )

Lots of virological details which I haven't yet digested,  but this assessment is simple enough:

Quote

Our initial results suggest that measures to contain viral spread should aim at droplet-, rather than fomite-based transmission

 

(Fomite:    A fomes (pronounced /ˈfoʊmiːz/) or fomite (/ˈfoʊmaɪt/) is any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host.[1]  For humans, skin cells, hair, clothing, and bedding are common hospital sources of contamination of fomites [...]  In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, and other items that are frequently touched by different people and that may be infrequently cleaned.  [etc.] )

Edited by Sibiriak
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Apple now says you can use alcohol wipes to clean your phone, after a decade of insisting it will damage the touchscreen if you use anything other than “a soft, lint-free cloth”. [...] “Using a 70% isopropyl alcohol wipe or clorox disinfecting wipes, you may gently wipe the hard, non-porous surfaces of your Apple product, such as the display, keyboard, or other exterior surfaces,” the company says. “Don’t use bleach. Avoid getting moisture in any opening, and don’t submerge your Apple product in any cleaning agents.”  Users had previously been warned that disinfectant wipes may damage the oleophobic coating on the screen, which helps keep them free of fingerprint smudges.

 

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This is a really interesting video just published that discusses Chloroquine as an effective treatment for covid-19, I had actually mentioned this quite a while back somewhere in this thread, but the video explains the mechanism by which it works, and in particular the key connection to zinc (it should be combined with zinc)!  This could be life saving information in the right hands.  Like I said before and is reiterated in this video, Chloroquine is off patent, dirt cheap, and pretty ubiquitous as its used to treat malaria, its also well tolerated and is considered safe at recommended dosages (500mg/day).  He cautions near the end about the lack of proper randomized controlled clinical trials, and also notes that the Chinese used twice the dose that the South Korean docs/researchers have been using. He also notes the death rate difference between China, South Korea, and Italy - suggesting that China and South Korea may be "winning" by using Chloroquine and Italy may be "losing" without it. 

 

Edited by Gordo
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2 hours ago, Ron Put said:

In times of plague, people yearn for a strong "father" figure and populists invariably rise to the occasion. 

Just to place this whole thing into perspective:

...

Not making light of it, but panic can do more damage to a herd than a predator.

Maybe Mccoy can give you a firsthand briefing on the difference between the regular flu season, and a covid-19 season?  😉

Thinking this thing can never be as bad as the regular flu seems a bit naive to me, but I absolutely won't rule out that possibility, the whole thing might just fizzle out as soon as warm weather arrives (where I live its just heating up now).  If this coronavirus is more contagious than the flu though (and all indications suggest that it is), shouldn't we expect that eventually there will be more infections than the flu?  In just two months it has already spread around the globe to 100 countries.  The mortality rate is some multiple of the regular seasonal flu, probably 4x or higher (we don't really know yet). 

Now I'm sure you could argue that even at a multiple fatality rate and matching infection rate, we might be better off just ignoring it if the alternative is everyone holing up and imploding the economy (not to mention the lower quality of life that comes with everyone holing up - less leisure, less travel, less eating out, movies, concerts, etc).  Other benefits of ignoring it:

  • pension crisis averted
  • no one gets old anymore
  • more affordable housing due to large increase in supply
  • no more elder abuse
  •  😉

 

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38 minutes ago, Gordo said:

He also notes the death rate difference between China, South Korea, and Italy - suggesting that China and South Korea may be "winning" by using Chloroquine and Italy may be "losing" without it.

Chloroquine use may be an important cause for the difference between Korean and Italian death rates,  or their may be entirely different causes, eg.:

Quote

 

Experts say that although most covid-19 cases tend to be mild, the clusters in northern Italy are resulting in more severe cases because they are hitting an aging population with a high incidence of cancer and other underlying health issues — the demographic most vulnerable to the disease. 

“The situation is quite bad in the epicenter of the outbreak,” said Giovanni Rezza, director of the infectious-disease department at the Italian National Institute of Health. “We have a very old population, they need hospital support and assistance, and it’s a very high burden for the hospitals in that area.”

 

In any case,  thanks for the interesting video.
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Regarding medical strategies to deal with coronavirus cases:

Therapeutic and triage strategies for 2019 novel coronavirus disease in fever clinics

One thing that caught my attention was the use of the Russian drug arbidol which is somewhat popular in my neck of the woods as an over-the-counter flu remedy,  despite disputed evidence of efficacy.

Edited by Sibiriak
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Maybe a silver lining to all this is that perhaps some habits will change and slow down or prevent similar pandemics. For example, not touching high risk surfaces - I saw them called fomites in a post above - and not touching your face. Living here in LA CA, I have long since had some habits that come from being in a big city with a homeless population. Once you see a bum wipe his snot on the button for light change at a pedestrian crossing, you're forever scarred - I have not pressed any such public button with my hand in decades, you do it with your elbow. I don't touch public doors (especially bathroom doors) with my hand. Whenever I go to any health provider facility, I am hyper aware of the fact that this is where sick people congregate and I'm super careful what and how I touch and maintain extreme peripheral awareness. Now, I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities left for infection, but with greater public vigilance and awareness I'm hoping changes will be made - for example these days you have more and more bathroom access through those winding corridor entrances (airports have had this for decades), IKEA has loops on bathroom doors where you insert your arm and so on. Another habit - when opening public doors that have a handle, or touching such objects, I pull my sleeves forward so that I can put my hand into the fabric before I touch (of course, not possible when wearing a t-shirt). But I think people will carry more and more napkins and so forth to provide an isolation layer for the hands.

Anyway as more people acquire these habits as a result of this publicity around COVID-19, there will be fewer dangerous "fomites", one would hope. Perhaps raised awareness will lead to more education and more counter-measures so that future pandemics don't spread as fast.

Edited by TomBAvoider
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Where's the dividing line between hygiene and germophobia? We owe our biggest medical advances that have population level impact on health and lifespan to basic hygiene and access to water. If you wash your hands with soap and water - are you a germophobe? If yes, then being a germophobe has helped humanity make its biggest leaps in medicine. We've been told for years to cover our mouths when sneezing or coughing and to avoid situations where respiratory or other infectious agents are concentrated. There are many factors that seem to escalate the frequency and danger of pandemics - climate change, deforestation, wild-life consumption, increased travel, increased living quarter density, overpopulation etc. Scientists have long predicted that there will be increasing frequency of pandemics. Perhaps what were once irrational practices due to "germophobia" (f.ex. avoiding handshakes), because the odds of infection were so low due to low prevalence of pandemics, will now become entirely rational practices and therefore basic hygiene rather than germophobia all due to changed circumstances. Hence practices such as wearing masks (which has been common in parts of Asia for many decades now!) and avoiding common vectors of infection will become the new normal. And when it's entirely rational and accepted practice, it can no longer be called irrational which is what germophobia is. After all, it's not paranoia if someone is really after you :)

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Report from 24+ hours ago is some areas of Italy are so overwhelmed they aren't even assessing/treating patients 65+ years old if they have any other comorbitities. Health resources are being reserved for younger individuals. This would be why the case fatality rate seems to now be worse than China. In more positive news, China announced plans to send 1000 ventilators and other medical supplies to Italy.

 

taken from twitter thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237142891077697538.html

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5 hours ago, BrianA said:

Report from 24+ hours ago is some areas of Italy are so overwhelmed they aren't even assessing/treating patients 65+ years old if they have any other comorbitities. Health resources are being reserved for younger individuals. This would be why the case fatality rate seems to now be worse than China. In more positive news, China announced plans to send 1000 ventilators and other medical supplies to Italy.

 

taken from twitter thread:

...

One should be careful where one gets one's news...

And just a pointless observation, but lately the discussion seems mostly focused on creationism and pandemic minute-by-minute (not that I am not guilty in participating. :)

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