Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[mccoy]

13 hours ago, Ron Put said:

“If you cocoon the elderly and you increase herd immunity, then the spread of the virus in the community in a few months is going to be lower,” she said."

Ah, OK, I'm glad I misunderstood, probably misguided by some journalists report (those words had some coverage in Italy).

Anyhow, how do you cocoon effectively the elderly? From the characteristics of this virus, its high level of contagiousness, it sounds nearly impossible, especially if the situation lasts for months. Just think about it, many elderly people need care, need people to bring them food and necessities, the most vulnerable need pharmaceutical drugs and medical care, they just cannot isolate on their own. And, if the virus as reported can stay active on surfaces for many hours and even days, whatever is touched by others can be infected, so efficiently isolating a part of the population would seem just impossible.

 

[Gordo]

12 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

Something insane just happened. I wish I was joking. My wife and I thought it would be a good idea to do our weekend shopping today, Friday morning before folks came back from work and lines started forming. So we went to TJ's as usual... and insanity! There were no carts as the store was packed, and lines snaking all over the store. There were empty shelves for a lot of items - no nuts, dry fruit, canned goods, etc., but we managed to buy a little bit extra yoghurt, milk, frozen berries etc. than we usually do. No sooner did we get home, when there was a knock on the door. One of the neighbors from across the street was at the door - we are slightly friendly because she has a roaming cat that likes to come into our yard. Anyway... very sad situation: she's been let go from her freelance gig. She has no savings. She wanted to borrow some money. We don't keep cash at home, but we offered the groceries we just purchased as we figured out what to do. She was fine with the groceries, and will be back in the evening. We can pull out some $ from the bank, but... this is not a long term solution! I called an old friend who lives not far away, just to talk things over, and he informed me that they have heard similar stories and is prepared: he and his wife will not open the door to anyone knocking! LOL! What The F***!! Folks this is like a Marx Brothers routine... seriously, it's like a movie! The pandemic has barely started and you're already seeing hoarding, panic buying and weird behavior! I mean, is this all it takes for all social norms to collapse? 

Yet again we see that civilization is just a very thin surface veneer on society, liable to collapse much faster than anyone could've suspected! I'm frankly astounded...

This doesn’t surprise me.

40% of Americans don’t have $400 in the bank for emergency expenses: Federal Reserve

If the unemployment rate shoots way up, there’s going to be big trouble. For someone like your neighbor, it should be a high priority to get on SNAP (gets you an EBT card, so you will have food) then focus on finding work. Often foreclosures take months, some countries have allowed missed payments during the corona epidemic without repercussions. 40 million Americans were already on SNAP before this virus even arrived.

Obviously while things are still “civil” you do what you can to help anyone in need (well a kind person does anyway). If law and order break down at some point, I certainly don’t hope for or expect it to come to that, but it’s one reason I have firearms for defense in my emergency supply kit along with thousands of rounds of ammo (another reason would be for hunting if it came to that for survival). But right now a lot of people are just freaking out, and I don’t think things will get out of control. If the whole country got the virus it would be dreadful for 3 weeks and we’d have a lot fewer old folks, but then everything would pick up where we left off and the whole thing would be over fast. Maybe the grasshoppers will learn from the ants to put away some savings and live a bit more frugally (or a lot more frugally as the case may be). It blows my mind that so many people buy housing and cars that put them in a dangerous financial position with no cushion for tough times. 

[mccoy]

13 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

Yet again we see that civilization is just a very thin surface veneer on society, liable to collapse much faster than anyone could've suspected! I'm frankly astounded...

That's right, although not all is very bad, so far. Presently the situation in Italy is as follows, with the curfew enforced by patrols. It may become like that in America soon, but it depends, Italy is a smallish country with lots of roads.

• The supply chain is still active. Truckers are doing overwork to deliver.
• Utilities such as electricity and water are all right
• Gasoline and diesel are available
• Restrictions to circulation are not clear and sometimes subject to the patrols' interpretation. You need some urgent maintenance job, you may not be able to obtain it, you may not be able to get stuff unless it's essentials like food and medicines, or you order it from Amazon, which is still delivering
• It's not clear which businesses are open and which are closed. Some car repair shops are open, others are closed. Everyone tends to close since there are so few people around.
• Of course, there is the temporary (permanent if it lasts too long) loss of income, which at least in part the states are trying to compensate. Germany has called for a 550 billion Euro liquidity injection on the domestic market! yes it's 550 not 55.

[mccoy]

8 minutes ago, Gordo said:

have firearms for defense in my emergency supply kit along with thousands of rounds of ammo (another reason would be for hunting if it came to that for survival).

Heck Gordo, thousands! I'm a little envious here with my limited supply!

[Clinton]

I don’t have any weapons, only typical tools you’d find in the house & garage.

That and ... hockey sticks 🏒👍

 

[Sibiriak]

Quote

Yet again we see that civilization is just a very thin surface veneer on society

 Yes, there's been outbreaks of mob panic, but there have also been innumerable stories of heroic self-sacrifice, cooperation and solidarity.

(Besides, how civilized has civilization really been?   The wonders of "progress" are weighed against   endless wars, colonialism, slavery,  human exploitation on a colossal scale,  mega-slums  of inconceivable magnitude, vast destruction of ecosystems,  filthy industrialization,  gross overpopulation,  a world drowning in plastic etc. etc.)

Coronavirus: quarantined Italians sing from balconies to lift spirits/ messages of solidarity from China:  "Resist, Italy!"

 

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Sibiriak]

Solidarity:  China sends medical supplies, experts to help Italy battle coronavirus

 

A Chinese team of experts pose for a photograph with head of the Italian Red Cross Francesco Rocca after arriving at Rome's Fiumicino airport on a chartered plane with a consignment of medical supplies including respirators and masks, to help Italy cope with a coronavirus outbreak.  March 12, 2020

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Sibiriak

[mccoy]

45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That and ... hockey sticks 🏒👍

Sorry, but I couldn't resist:

[Gordo]

2 hours ago, mccoy said:

Heck Gordo, thousands! I'm a little envious here with my limited supply!

Ammo for The Ultimate Survival Weapon is surprisingly cheap and effective. Even my kid had used it to successfully hunt small game by age 10. A Joe Biden approved shotgun is perfect for defense or large game hunting.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Gordo

[Gordo]

1 hour ago, Sibiriak said:Coronavirus: quarantined Italians sing from balconies to lift spirits/ messages of solidarity from China:  "Resist, Italy!"

 

I like the vids of quarantined people singing or chanting to lift spirits, saw the same in Wuhan. But I was thinking, if everyone comes out on their balconies in large buildings at once and starts singing/chanting/shouting isn’t that going to propel virus droplets all over the place? 

[Sibiriak]

11 minutes ago, Gordo said:

isn’t that going to propel virus droplets all over the place? 

Rapid "herd immunity"?

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Sibiriak

[Gordo]

A friend texted me that he thought his keto diet would be protective against covid-19. I laughed at first, but then googled it, there actually is some evidence to support the idea: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-11-ketogenic-diet-flu-virus.html

[Mike41]

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/possible-therapeutic-role-of-a-highly-standardized-mixture-of-active-compounds-derived-from-cultured-lentinula-edodes-mycelia-ahcc-in-patients-infected-with-2019-novel-coronavirus/

Guesswork for sure, but what else do we have at this point?

This quote seemed encouraging. 

AHCC is an α-glucan-based standardized mushroom extract that has been extensively investigated as an immunostimulant both in animals and/or in humans affected by West Nile virus, influenza virus, avian influenza virus, hepatitis C virus, papillomavirus, herpes virus, hepatitis B virus and HIV by promoting a regulated and protective immune response.

Matt had mentioned this and Gordo responded better to eat mushrooms.

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Mike41

[Clinton]

16 hours ago, TomBAvoider said:

Something insane just happened.  No sooner did we get home, when there was a knock on the door. 

I thought this might be something scary like Mormons or Jehovah's witnesses ...

[mccoy]

2 hours ago, Gordo said:

Ammo for The Ultimate Survival Weapon is surprisingly cheap and effective. Even my kid had used it to successfully hunt small game by age 10. A Joe Biden approved shotgun is perfect for defense or large game hunting.

My choice is 12 gauge semiauto combat shotguns, loaded with 00 buckshot. Excellent for self-defense, good for the big game but I would never eat the meat.

.223 Remington is another pretty good caliber, there are some very light and compact assault rifles that I would just love to have in my arsenal. The round may go a long distance astray though.

Don't know if .22LR is good for defense.

 

 

[Gordo]

Pandemics Kill Compassion, Too

[TomBAvoider]

Boy, things are moving rapidly. Around here, we are advised to cancel all unnecessary medical appointments, which makes sense - you don't want to use up resources that may be needed for the sick, and you don't want to go to places where sick people congregate. But as people cancel appointments, there are consequences. Today I received a call from the my periodontist's office - I have regular teeth cleanings every three months, and I have one coming up in a couple of weeks which I was contemplating cancelling. Well, today the front office lady called to ask if I could come in early, like this Monday - sounded desperate... apparently, they've had mass cancellations. I feel for the guy - he's in the middle of a divorce and needs every penny. The whole business depends on him, including the front office. Apparently he's financially stretched. I agreed to move up my appointment, so I'm going in Monday for teeth cleaning... hard to think a couple hundred bucks can make a difference, but I guess every bit helps.

This prompted me and my wife to think about all the small businesses that we frequent. We're thinking of ways to support them without making things worse.

I'm starting to think that this pandemic might be quite devastating apart from loss of life. What happens to all these small businesses, which may not have the resources to withstand lengthy downturns? That $400 statistic, Gordo, is quite shocking - are things this bad out there? 

[Matt]

Living with my parents, on the one hand, they sound as if they are taking it seriously, on the other, no one is truly taking it seriously.

Kids are still in school, coming over here most days in the week. Brother works at a hotel as a driver and goes into many cars every day and has been over here a few days this week. Sister comes over every day to help my dad as he just had hernia surgery. My mum back and forth to the shops with her mother every day (who has chronic lung issues) and my mum's friend comes over every weekend.

I guess I will not escape this. 

I wish I lived on my own at this point so I could self isolate and limit my exposure but it seems impossible.

Everyone is panic buying now too. Riots in stores. everywhere.

I went shopping this morning at 6 am and it was super quiet and stores were stacked full, but by mid-morning apparently everything was stripped again. The stores need to start rationing food.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Matt

[Matt]

22 hours ago, Ron Put said:

In a human of 65 kg, this would mean taking 65g of the stuff per day. Forget the expense, but I wonder what other effects such quantity of AHCC might have. And the evidence that it does much of anything in humans is scant....

Eating whole mushrooms as often as you can might be a wiser road to improving the immune system.

I also just realized that my water kefir is swimming in beta glucans, so now I really feel invincible 🙂

I included plenty of references in all my posts regarding beta-glucans and AHCC. They did not use anywhere near these doses and have shown good effects on clearing chronic viral infections (including hpv) and preventing them.

[BrianA]

On the Japan-docked cruise ship it's looking like around a 1% CFR in that population, the researchers estimate in the overall general population the CFR may end up being 0.5% (assuming everyone can get needed ideal medical care). Interesting that around half of people that had it didn't have any symptoms. So you can see how that allows it to spread so much, tons of people walking around spreading it with no idea. It's just highly variable in symptom severity, unfortunately older people and a small fraction of younger people have a really bad reaction to it. My concern is in places like the UK and California which are now taking the approach of just letting it essentially naturally spread, and only asking the obviously sick people to stay home, this could lead to it getting too far out of control due to the symptomless spreaders. We're going to find out real soon.

 

Cruise ship data helps reveal coronavirus death rate: researchers

https://www.foxnews.com/us/cruise-ship-data-helps-reveal-coronavirus-death-rate-researchers

Edited March 14, 2020 by BrianA

[Ron Put]

10 hours ago, mccoy said:

Ah, OK, I'm glad I misunderstood, probably misguided by some journalists report (those words had some coverage in Italy).

Anyhow, how do you cocoon effectively the elderly? ...

I doubt it's misguided, it's spinning. In this world of troll factories, and raising tribalism and populism, politics is playing a large role in fanning the panic, with each wing denigrating everything the opposition does and predicting armageddon unless their way is adopted.

And one focuses on isolating and protecting from the virus the vulnerable, while not creating panic among the majority. It seems to make more sense than locking up everyone indiscriminately and delaying the onset of herd immunity.
 

8 minutes ago, BrianA said:

On the Japan-docked cruise ship it's looking like around a 1% CFR in that population, the researchers estimate in the overall general population the CFR may end up being 0.5% ....

My concern is in places like the UK and California which are now taking the approach of just letting it essentially naturally spread, and only asking the obviously sick people to stay home, this could lead to it getting too far out of control due to the symptomless spreaders. We're going to find out real soon.

That's how you get herd immunity, which is the only way to contain this without a vaccine.

Testing the general population is both not feasible and pointless, since I haven't seen a mention of a test which surpacess identifying more than 70% or so of the carriers. Which means that you'll also have to do a CT scan on everyone, to get in the area of 90%+ detection. Which is still not good enough based on how contagious this is, without symptoms.

[mccoy]

Good luck to Boris Johnson with his strategy, and above all good luck to the vulnerable ones, who are impossible to isolate and protect. By definition, vulnerable ones need assistance and you cannot send out robots to assist people. No adequate technology yet.

Again, I cannot help but think about Darwin's survival of the fittest and how the concept was efficiently applied by the Nazis!

[Ron Put]

35 minutes ago, mccoy said:

Good luck to Boris Johnson with his strategy, and above all good luck to the vulnerable ones, who are impossible to isolate and protect. By definition, vulnerable ones need assistance and you cannot send out robots to assist people. No adequate technology yet.

Again, I cannot help but think about Darwin's survival of the fittest and how the concept was efficiently applied by the Nazis!

I fail to follow the logic in this.  How does locking everyone down ensure that you don't infect those who are actually vulnerable, given that we don't have robots to assist them? You are just prolonging the time it takes to build herd immunity and slow transmission, without really doing anything much for the vulnerable. I really don't see how this can be connected to the Nazis....

You protect the vulnerable by isolating them and testing only those who assist them, to prevent infection of the vulnerable.

Everyone else can go about their business and those who get exposed will build immunity. Once you have enough people with immunity (about 60%), transmission is reduced significantly and this has the effect of "cocooning" the vulnerable.

What better solutions are there, until a vaccine (or cure) is available? Wishful thinking, or just a desire for draconian measures for the sake of the populace feeling that some strong Great Leader is doing something "strong?"

I am not sure that China or Italy are the best models to follow.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Ron Put

[Gordo]

2 hours ago, Ron Put said:

That's how you get herd immunity, which is the only way to contain this without a vaccine.

Not saying that’s the wrong strategy, but can you really call it containment if the majority of the population gets it?

[Gordo]

Another good tool for the emergency kit is an oximeter, this will show you daily how a persons lungs are doing and when supplemental oxygen is required. Pretty much everyone that goes critical with covid-19 has hypoxemia. This is the one I bought and it works well, it even showed a problem with a relative’s lung function (she eventually died from lung disease): https://amzn.to/2TNYKTI