Just curious, anyone have a plan, or preps for global pandemic?

[corybroo]

Vaccination rates.  

[Gordo]

I wonder how some of those countries got so many doses relative to their population?  We are still quite constrained in the U.S.  My brother (a doc) and wife (teacher) have both received their first doses (no side effects).  I'm not eligible yet.  My parents are getting it next week (age based criteria).

[mccoy]

Gordo, that was the beginning but in Europe the vaccination programs are already slowing down, due to production problems from the main manufacturers. They will not be able to honor the committed quantities. So the trend of vaccinations completed versus time will decline. The European commission is starting to raise cane because the doses have been paid in advance. Of course, only the contracts have legal value.

 

Coronavirus: Europe looks for a way out of vaccine fiasco

[Ron Put]

On 1/18/2021 at 6:01 AM, Gordo said:

That was interesting reading for conspiracy theorists, but I think it gives Xi way too much credit, I don't think he's that bright.  Also note that China is STILL doing the lockdowns, this just happened:

Actually, much of it is a fact, and many geopolitical experts noted it as early as March of 2020. I thought it was a good overall summary, but it does make some unlikely conjectures on a few occasions. And yes, China is still doing selective lockdowns, but note that unlike the liberal democracies, China is careful not to significantly impact its economy.  Instead, China's lockdowns have at times served as a pretext to greatly expand surveillance and have effectively obliterated dissent in some of its volatile regions.

Since Xi took power in 2012 there has been a singular push by China to expand its soft power (including Chinese control of world bodies such as WHO and strategic dual-purpose projects, such as the New Silk Road). China is openly flexing its military muscle in the Pacific region and challenging the US and its allies on a global scale, while the liberal democratic societies have been unable to mount a coherent response. The (especially the English-speaking) West's weakness is largely due to the tearing of its social fabric and the political infighting driven by a toxic mix of post-modernist anti-capitalism, mashed with identity politics.

The US has not had a coherent foreign policy since the mid-90s and over the last decade has been mired in raising identity-based upheavals, lurching from waves of anti-police rioting to conservative/religious populism, and currently to a much more dangerous left-wing populism actively engaged in the unprecedented suppression of dissent.

The pandemic, and the unprecedented fear-mongering and politically-motivated responses to it, have clearly weakened the West and greatly enhanced China's geopolitical position. And it ain't over yet, by a long shot.

It's hard to overestimate President Xi Jinping, who succeeded in consolidating and making permanent his personal power over the party, becoming as powerful as Mao once was. But Xi is arguably more adept on the world stage than Mao, and China is in a much more powerful position today. China is ever more actively engaged in espionage and in trying to influence, undermine and disrupt societies it views as enemies (internally, Xi has repeatedly stated that China is at war and preparing for war). To boot, China today holds enormous influence over many of the world's finance and tech corporate giants, such as Apple. I strongly dislike what Xi stands for, but he has been a very skillful politician, and with the mostly unwitting help of many in the West, is likely to hasten the demise of the liberal democracies. And the world will again be a considerably worse place for most to live in, as it has been for virtually all of its past history.

 

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Edited February 1, 2021 by Ron Put

[Ron Put]

Amidst continuing lockdowns, mask order pledges for another 100 days, and mutation and "number of dead is raising!" headlines, there has been a deafening silence in the mainstream media on the excess mortality front for 2020.

I just did a quick search and nothing is available for the US or the UK, which is, to say the least, puzzling (or not).

But as already posted, Sweden's excess mortality for 2020 is on par with past years (without a lockdown or mask requirements):

The number of deaths in Italy is unremarkable and as expected, compared to the last five decades:


 

The same is seen in Germany, where there is a shift in mortality due to the very mild flu season (compared to the past four years), but overall excess mortality for the year is unremarkable, despite the singular focus on Covid-19:



 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Ron Put

[Ron Put]

Here is a page summarizing past face mask use population studies, before the issue was politicized and made a litmus test for by the Left "cancel" mobs, and before virtually all international health groups were forced to do a 180° and conform to the party line:

Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Ron Put

[Mike41]

16 hours ago, Ron Put said:

Here is a page summarizing past face mask use population studies, before the issue was politicized and made a litmus test for by the Left "cancel" mobs, and before virtually all international health groups were forced to do a 180° and conform to the party line:

Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.

What would be the motivation to push masks?

[mccoy]

22 hours ago, Ron Put said:

t's hard to overestimate President Xi Jinping, who succeeded in consolidating and making permanent his personal power over the party, becoming as powerful as Mao once was. But Xi is arguably more adept on the world stage than Mao, and China is in a much more powerful position today. China is ever more actively engaged in espionage and in trying to influence, undermine and disrupt societies it views as enemies (internally, Xi has repeatedly stated that China is at war and preparing for war). To boot, China today holds enormous influence over many of the world's finance and tech corporate giants, such as Apple.

Ron, I agree with your analysis, but I do not agree on the 'president' title. 'Emperor' Xi Jinping is closer to the truth. He really seems to be as powerful and cunning as the ancient Chinese emperors.

[mccoy]

21 hours ago, Ron Put said:

ut as already posted, Sweden's excess mortality for 2020 is on par with past years (without a lockdown or mask requirements😞

The number of deaths in Italy is unremarkable and as expected, compared to the last five decades:

I do not agree on Italy's number of deaths but I do agree on the totally mediocre results of Italy, a country which applied draconian measures, with the results of having the second worse death rate in the large industrial countries (and probably the largest drop in GDP).

Sweden actually backtracked and they did have restrictions, largely based on the citizens' sense of responsibility, but, with no extreme lockdowns, she fared no worse than Italy (and much better as far as GDP's decrease goes).

I have no idea why the results in my country have been so disastrous, but I fear the weak, incompetent populistic government has a large share of responsibility in it.

Edited February 1, 2021 by mccoy

[corybroo]

Excess mortality for selected countries.    https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Italy and US by age:

US 2015-2020

[corybroo]

A sign that vaccination is starting to give Israeli hospitals some breathing space emerged a fortnight after January 2nd, the day when the proportion of those over 60 who had been vaccinated reached 40%. The number critically ill with covid-19 in that age group grew by about 30% in the week before January 2nd, and also in the following week—but by just 7% in the week after that (see chart 2). By contrast, among those aged between 40 and 55 (who were vaccinated at a much lower rate at the time) the weekly change in the number of critically ill remained constant, with a 20-30% increase in each of those three weeks.

[Saul]

I agree completely with Ron's characterization of Communist China.

The original founders of the Communism were actually idealists -- they were internationalists, believing in improving the lot of all of mankind.  Their ideals were misguided; capitalism proved much more effective, leading to the fall of Russian Communism (and the drop in the price of oil also had a lot to do with Gorbachev's capitulation to Reagan).

The same is not true of the Communism of China.  Unlike the China of Mao, the China of today is a very capitalist country.

The word socialist is used in many contexts.

The Germany of Hitler called itself "socialist" -- but not communist; they were  "National Socialists" and thought of themselves as "the alternative to Communism".  They were "the National Socialist", or Natzi, Party.  In it's ideals, it did not resemble those of the original Communists -- or those of their less idealistic successors.

The China of Chi is also not Communist.  It is very capitalist and authoritarian, and very nationalist.  It, like Hitler's Germany, seeks to dominate -- and rule -- the world.  We can expect a very hard time dealing with them.  As in the case of Hitler's Germany, I don't believe that internal dissent will lead to the fall of this capitalist authoritarian dictatorship. 

  --  Saul

 

 

 

 

[Saul]

I had my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine yesterday, on Feb 2, Groundhog day -- exactly three weeks after receiving the first dose.

Although I'm 81.5 yo, and have not stopped teaching in-person, full time at the Math Dept of UR (I don't fell as the way most people my age feel -- for one thing, I'm in perfect health.  I fell more like I did in my 60's.

  --  Saul

 

[Saul]

So how did I get the two vaccines?

I was one of the many thousands of volunteers in the third phase of the Pfizer vaccine study.  As soon as vaccine became (theoretically) available to me, Pfizer is required by US law to inform me whether I received vaccine or placebo.  Gov. Cuomo of NYS decided that everyone over 65 yo was eligible for vaccine.  In practice, I'd never get vaccine that way -- there are too many people in NYS aged over 65.  (At UR, where I work, UR began dispensing vaccine to employees over 65.  Again, there are many, many more UR employees over 65yo than there are vaccine doses at UR.  So how is UR distributing what it has?  By allowing all who qualify enter a lottery.  I didn't bother.)  But I informed Pfizer (through Dr, Walsh, of RGH, who is in charge of the Pfizer study in Rochester), and I was soon scheduled to receive my first dose -- and just got the second one yesterday.

Side effects:  a little pain at the vaccine site, one day after the second injection (felt only by pressing at the site.)  But no swelling.

Why didn't I have swelling?  Swelling means inflammation.  I'm on pretty severe CR.  My bloodwork shows that I have unmeasurably low inflation.

Happily yours,

  --  Saul

 

 

 

[Mike41]

On 2/2/2021 at 11:11 AM, Saul said:

I agree completely with Ron's characterization of Communist China.

The original founders of the Communism were actually idealists -- they were internationalists, believing in improving the lot of all of mankind.  Their ideals were misguided; capitalism proved much more effective, leading to the fall of Russian Communism (and the drop in the price of oil also had a lot to do with Gorbachev's capitulation to Reagan).

The same is not true of the Communism of China.  Unlike the China of Mao, the China of today is a very capitalist country.

The word socialist is used in many contexts.

The Germany of Hitler called itself "socialist" -- but not communist; they were  "National Socialists" and thought of themselves as "the alternative to Communism".  They were "the National Socialist", or Natzi, Party.  In it's ideals, it did not resemble those of the original Communists -- or those of their less idealistic successors.

The China of Chi is also not Communist.  It is very capitalist and authoritarian, and very nationalist.  It, like Hitler's Germany, seeks to dominate -- and rule -- the world.  We can expect a very hard time dealing with them.  As in the case of Hitler's Germany, I don't believe that internal dissent will lead to the fall of this capitalist authoritarian dictatorship. 

  --  Saul

 

 

 

 

One step we could and should take is to make it unprofitable for business to relocate outside the USA! That would solve several problems. The means of production, employment, tax revenue. We should ostracize the behavior imo!

[Ron Put]

18 hours ago, Saul said:

Although I'm 81.5 yo, and have not stopped teaching in-person, full time at the Math Dept of UR (I don't fell as the way most people my age feel -- for one thing, I'm in perfect health.  I fell more like I did in my 60's.

I've said it before but will repeat: My hat off to you, Saul! You are an inspiration to me.

P.S. While on the topic of trials, I am about to get my second shot in the Novavax trial.  One-third chance of getting a placebo.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ron Put

[Ron Put]

On 2/1/2021 at 7:22 AM, Mike41 said:

What would be the motivation to push masks?

The main motivation is political.

It promotes dread and fear, and fear is arguably the most powerful political motivator.

It provides a constant visual reminder of the "war" against the virus and by extension, against those who are not "doing their part in the war effort," such as "non-leaders" who do not actively support lockdowns, the scientists who question the prevailing politically-driven dogma, and anyone else who does not conform.

It's an instantly recognizable virtue-signaling mark and it unites the tribe of  "virtuous" against the "evil ones." It's for the same reason that the Democrats passed the new House rules banning the use of gender-specific terms such as "man," or "woman, "or "mother." It's virtue-signaling symbolism drawing stark lines between "the good" and "the bad," and opens those who use such terms to an attack for running afoul of the "rules."

Outdoor mask orders for healthy people are not backed by science and the 180° turn by the leadership of WHO, CDC, and other medical organizations were clearly the result of organized attacks from the Left and the media, during which the competency and professional fitness of those who initially wavered (including Van Kerkhove and Fauci), forcing them to surrender (or likely lose their jobs).

The same forces pushed the widespread lockdowns, initially because Covid-19 "was not contagious" and lockdowns can stop it, as "China showed," and then by moving the goalposts to "flatten the curve" and then to "people are dying!"

[corybroo]

8 minutes ago, Ron Put said:

The main motivation is political.

It promotes dread and fear, and fear is arguably the most powerful political motivator.

It provides a constant visual reminder of the "war" against the virus and by extension, against those who are not "doing their part in the war effort," such as "non-leaders" who do not actively support lockdowns, the scientists who question the prevailing politically-driven dogma, and anyone else who does not conform.

While the precise benefits are not known at this time, there appear to be some ancillary benefits (https://www.axios.com/flu-season-coronavirus-deaths-945216ac-6b26-4c94-a61b-614897562520.html):

By the numbers: According to the CDC, the U.S. recorded just five flu deaths in the 52nd week of 2020, a period that usually represents the height of the influenza season.

• That is 40-fold fewer deaths than the same week in 2019, and more than 130-fold fewer deaths than during the bad flu season of 2017.
• According to data from BioFire Diagnostics, levels of nearly every common respiratory and gastrointestinal virus are currently all but undetectable.

How it works: It turns out if you drastically reduce global travel, close public workplaces and schools, and promote mask-wearing and handwashing, you'll cut off opportunities for common pathogens to spread.

Personal speculation:  Wearing masks in flu season will become more common outside the Asian countries that already do so.  It protects both the wearer and friends and neighbors.

 

[Ron Put]

On 2/1/2021 at 12:23 PM, mccoy said:

I do not agree on Italy's number of deaths but I do agree on the totally mediocre results of Italy, a country which applied draconian measures, with the results of having the second worse death rate in the large industrial countries (and probably the largest drop in GDP).

I am curious what is the reason for not agreeing on Italy's number of deaths? I downloaded the Italy data linked and the numbers appear to indicate about 460000 deaths from all causes by October (the last month provided) which is not dramatically different than the expected 10-11 deaths per 1000.  I found the 50 years of data particularly helpful to place the current pandemic in perspective.

To reiterate, I am not arguing that Covid-19 is not a deadly pandemic. What I am arguing is that the political response to it has been unprecedented and unwarranted, and the opportunistic power grab, the tearing of society, and the open assault on dissent and free speech by the Left is the greatest threat to the liberal democracies (especially in the English-speaking world) since WWII.

 

 

On 2/1/2021 at 1:06 PM, corybroo said:

Excess mortality for selected countries.

These do not provide total numbers for the year, the sources cited are incomplete and the presentation is misleading, visually grossly exaggerating shifts of mortality to the Spring and Fall. The difference in peak points for 2020 and 2018 is at worst 10k and the contexts of past major pandemics (1969, 1957) is omitted.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ron Put

[Gordo]

On 2/4/2021 at 3:13 PM, Ron Put said:

It provides a constant visual reminder of the "war" against the virus and by extension, against those who are not "doing their part in the war effort," such as "non-leaders" who do not actively support lockdowns, the scientists who question the prevailing politically-driven dogma, and anyone else who does not conform.

The tide seems to be turning where I live.  I was driving through downtown last night, streets completely packed with cars.  Every restaurant I could see into was completely full, no masks, no extra distance between tables, every table filled.  Not sure if this is partly because my town has a big hospital and tons of medical personnel all of which are probably already vaccinated?  All the teachers are also vaccinated now too.  Or maybe people have just had enough and they are going back to normal regardless?  I think in a few more months the economy should start really booming again.  I wonder if we are going to see inflation starting to become a concern a year from now.

[corybroo]

2 hours ago, Gordo said:

I think in a few more months the economy should start really booming again.  

The prediction I liked was based on the experience a century ago.  There was a flu pandemic followed by the Roaring 20s.  

[Sibiriak]

 

Facebook

Update on February 8, 2021

Removing More False Claims About COVID-19 and Vaccines

Today, we are expanding our efforts to remove false claims on Facebook and Instagram about COVID-19, COVID-19 vaccines and vaccines in general during the pandemic. Since December, we’ve removed false claims about COVID-19 vaccines that have been debunked by public health experts. Today, following consultations with leading health organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO), we are expanding the list of false claims we will remove to include additional debunked claims about the coronavirus and vaccines. This includes claims such as: 

• COVID-19 is man-made or manufactured
• Vaccines are not effective at preventing the disease they are meant to protect against
• It’s safer to get the disease than to get the vaccine
• Vaccines are toxic, dangerous or cause autism 

The full list of claims is available here, and we already prohibit these claims in ads. These new policies will help us continue to take aggressive action against misinformation about COVID-19 and vaccines.

We will begin enforcing this policy immediately, with a particular focus on Pages, groups and accounts that violate these rules, and we’ll continue to expand our enforcement over the coming weeks. Groups, Pages and accounts on Facebook and Instagram that repeatedly share these debunked claims may be removed altogether [...]

*   *   *   *

 

31. Vaccine Discouragement

 

Policy

Ads must not discourage people from vaccination or advocate against vaccines.

 

Examples

[Okay]  Ads that discuss vaccine legislation

[Not Okay]  Ads claiming that vaccinations are unsafe, unhealthy or will result in death or injury

[Not Okay] Ads that are inconsistent with health authorities (including local health authorities) guidance on vaccination

 

[Todd Allen]

7 minutes ago, Sibiriak said:

Facebook

Update on February 8, 2021

Removing More False Claims About COVID-19 and Vaccines

With luck Facebook will be added to the list of victims of Covid-19.

[Saul]

That would be great!

  --  Saul

[Ron Put]

On 2/9/2021 at 11:44 AM, Sibiriak said:

Today, we are expanding our efforts to remove false claims on Facebook and Instagram about COVID-19, COVID-19 vaccines and vaccines in general during the pandemic. Since December, we’ve removed false claims about COVID-19 vaccines that have been debunked by public health experts. Today, following consultations with leading health organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO), we are expanding the list of false claims we will remove to include additional debunked claims about the coronavirus and vaccines.

Ah, the irony! According to this policy, Facebook should have censored the tsunami of posts from the Left that:

- challenged the WHO statements (parroting the Chinese official line) that Covid-19 is not contagious and that the West should follow the Chinese lockdown policies because Covid-19 can be contained (unlike the flu). 

- Challenged the WHO, CDC and AMA statements and policies that advised against the wearing of masks by healthy people, especially outdoors, and claimed that masks may actually be detrimental in such situations.

Also, Facebook should have banned MSNBC and CNN, and the Leftist political opportunists who amplified these attacks on the medical establishment until the medical authorities caved-in and changed their positions. Facebook should have banned Kamala Harris who claimed that nobody should trust Trump's vaccines.

The point is, human knowledge is not set in stone and the very essence of science demands that there is a debate about falsifiable assertions. Facebook is the largest public forum in history, with over half of the world's population on it, and it should not be allowed to censor speech and especially political speech. Social media platforms are exempted from posted content liability for a reason, but they should not be allowed to edit or censor any speech, with strictly-defined and construed minimal exceptions for graphic violence, child porn, and felonious acts.  They must be regulated as utilities, because of their size and public forum likeness.

As it is, the liberal democracies appear to be sliding fast towards a political arrangement similar to what has emerged from the former state economies of Russia and China, where a single political ideology tolerates private property, but with tight political controls over it. It is not an oligarchy, as the oligarchs can maintain their positions only as long as they support the ruling political forces. In China, Jack Ma, perhaps the country's greatest entrepreneur, was just thrown in jail for a speech challenging (rather mildly) the CCP. It is more like socialism abandoning the command-economy and evolving into its close sibling, fascism.

In the US, the pandemic was politicized and weaponized against the Left's political opponents. Social media (and virtually all of the legacy media) actively assisted the Democrats and the Left, skewing public political discourse and suppressing virtually all debate on the pandemic.

After months of violence and absurd claims of "peaceful protests" that looted and burned major US cities, big business was forced in line, providing huge donations to BLM and installing party apparatchiks effectively in charge of most major HR departments, with the prerequisite indoctrination group Zoom calls where employees were subject to weekly reeducation sessions. Then January 6th came and it was used to usher an open purge of anyone opposed to the Left, with major social media platforms banning hundreds of journalists, former Trump Administration officials, and the former President himself. Amazon, in collusion with the other cloud providers, effectively killed Parlor to make an example and issue a warning to those who may think of alternatives. Bank of America, and likely others, scoured their customers' accounts for anyone who had traveled to DC and handed the information to the FBI.

I never liked Trump, for many reasons. But the democratic institutions of the US and the constitutional checks and balances make it difficult for populism to thrive. The new Left is much more dangerous and it is not only reshaping American society in ways unimaginable a couple of decades ago, but appears capable and willing to dismantle these very institutions. And that's scarier than any political movement or pandemic I've seen.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Ron Put